Words can not express how overwhelmingly pleasing it was for me to see that the Waratahs won their first Super Rugby title.
Many will now theorise that this bodes well for some major silverware for the Wallabies in 2014. Maybe not.
Based on the side McKenzie is likely to select, it is my reluctant opinion that the Wallabies will actually be a weaker side than the Waratahs. This is a problem because the All Blacks will certainly be a lot stronger than the Crusaders side that almost caused an upset against the ‘Tahs.
I also fear that the Springboks will be about twice the side that the Sharks were.
Therefore, I personally can’t see the Wallabies winning The Rugby Championship in 2014. There is some hope that we might win the Bledisloe Cup but only if Ewen McKenzie forgets 2013 and chooses on 2014 form.
I am not suggesting that the Wallabies should simply be fifteen Waratahs. Not at all. But the Wallabies side I believe Mckenzie will select will not be as strong as the fifteen players that ran out against the Crusaders last week.
Let me explain.
My reasoning begins with the fact that two of the best Waratahs forwards are unavailable for Wallaby selection. Kane Douglas has been a consistent stand out in the pack but he is off to Leinster, and his swashbuckling partner, Jacques Poitgeter, is of course a South African.
Unfortunately for McKenzie there is not a lock combination available that is better around the park than Douglas and Poitgeter.
I imagine that Rob Simmons will be one of the locks selected for the Wallabies, which gives the Wallabies a considerable weakness around the park when compared to either of the Waratahs locks. Simmons give the Wallabies a line-out caller, but at what price?
I imagine the other lock will be Sam Carter who does get through a lot of work but he just doesn’t have the physicality of Douglas or Poitgeter.
If we consider that for a variety of injury and selection reasons the front row for the Wallabies may now be weaker than the ‘Tahs equivalent, at the very best on par, I can not see the Wallaby tight five being competitive enough against the Springboks or the All Blacks.
I also may mention that Benn Robinson being lower on the pecking order than Pek Cowan is absolute madness. Yesterday I spat out my lunch when I read that Laurie Weeks was preferred when Scott Sio succumbed to injury.
Madness I tell ya!
What also concerns me is the dis-proportionate status of Scott Fardy in the backrow. His reputation is far beyond what his actual deeds on the field deserve. How can a player that had no impact in the French series be the seemingly automatic selection he is?
In that series, according to ESPN, he carried the ball all of 21 metres. That’s seven run metres a game. He also made a total of 21 tackles, again seven per game, and yet he barely did his job at the breakdown.
I also watched him intently in recent big games and he did little to impact on those games. Can we afford to have a back-rower that does not do his fair share just because he looks like a cave-man and occasionally gets in a good position over the ball? I don’t think so.
Yes we will have Wycliff Palu and Mike Hooper but the pack that the Wallabies are about to put out simply will not have enough decent ball carriers. This could be fixed by some clever selections, namely Will Skelton at lock in place of Rob Simmons, and Ben McCalman or even Scott Higginbotham at six in place of Fardy.
We need to try and take it to these heavyweights of world rugby as the Waratahs did in the Super Rugby. I can’t see any of that happening. Not until it is too late anyway.
Then there’s the likely Wallaby backline. This will most likely be the one used against France, minus the honey-badger of course. My major issue is with what I expect will be the scrum-half and the centres.
I would prefer that Nick Phipps was selected to play at no 9. I can kind of live with Nic White being selected as long as he is put under instruction to use his fly-half much more than he does.
Speaking of which, Foley will be selected at no 10, and that is a good thing. He is the calm, humble and unselfish no 10 we’ve been looking for, ala Dan Carter, to lead our back-line attack.
As for the centres, I imagine Matt Toomua and and Tevita Kuridrani will be selected at 12 and 13. Many expect that and probably are happy with it. For me that centre pairing makes no sense.
Let’s start with the inside centre. Toomua is a 10 and has played very well there for the Brumbies. But for all his strengths he simply offers less at 12 in all areas but defence.
Beale looked the better player when he came on against France and he has been playing at 12 with great success for the Waratahs. With clever defensive structures he has not been such a defensive liability either.
The Waratahs had the best defensive record in the competition, after-all.
To be blunt, Adam Ashley-Cooper is a better no 13 in all facets of play than Kuridrani and by a long way. Even Kuridrani’s reputable go forward is no-where near as good as Ashley-Cooper’s.
Both these players played a similar amount of minutes in this year’s Super Rugby. According to Fox Sports, Kuridrani made 666 run metres with 29 tackle-busts and seven line-breaks in the regular season. Not bad I hear you say.
Not when compared to Ashley-Cooper who made 1165 run metres with 52 tackle-busts and 14 line-breaks.
But I am sure McKenzie will once again select Ashley-Cooper on the wing, where his talents for hole running, stellar defence and gaining turn-overs becomes less of a factor.
In terms of the back three, the Wallabies will only have an advantage over the Waratahs when Henry Speight is available. Until then, the Wallabies will not be stronger than the current Waratahs back three.
So overall the Wallabies are going to have a weaker pack than the Waratahs, and a weaker back-line, yet they will be playing much stronger opposition when the Springboks and the All Blacks combine their super rugby franchise forces.
Over to you Mr McKenzie. Some of the issues with injury and players unavailable will force your hand. But if you take Cheika’s lead you could lead the Wallabies to at-least the Bledisloe Cup in 2014. You could do this by picking on 2014 form and adopting the same ball in hand style that the Waratahs used to unsettle their rivals. However, I fear you are about to blow it!
The Bledisloe is almost here!
Tickets are on sale to what will be a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium (get yours here). After a cracking Super Rugby final, this promises to be epic.There’s also plenty happening in the lead-up, with the Bledisloe Cup Festival a chance for true rugby supporters to get together.
Want to introduce yourself to a few of the players? The Bledisloe Bay is your best bet on Thursday 14th August from 5pm. Check it out!
Firstxv
Guest
Looking at the named AB and SA squads the thing that stands out (a mile) is the amount of experience and size they both have over the oz side, particularly in the pack, though in NZ's case more presence and impact than sheer size. There are legends in both packs and those that arent are very tough campaigners. In looking at the oz names theres a few journeymen that have been around for a while without being worldbeaters. I'm not sure what physical advantages Oz have over the other two other than a couple of real talents in Folau and AAC and at times Beale. The rest need to make their mark internationally. So passion such was there in the sxv final, crowd support etc will be crucial for the first game. The Bok squad looks immense and if Meyer can get them into 3rd or 4th gear I think we're all in trouble.
wallaby
Guest
Good article . Intelligent comments. Makes for better reading than the usual talk of "x factor" and give it to folau and he will win the game for wallabies. The 1st season in over a decade when we dont hear them referred to as " the new look wallabies " will be great.
Richie Walton
Roar Guru
Actually, if you play McCabe on the wing, KB could play 12. McCabe defends the 12 channel and KB defends on the wing and can kick-return with Folau. McCabe was pretty strong defensively under Deans when he played 12. He was alos in stellar form this year.. still not sure why he wasn't starting at the Brumbies. When everyone is fit and eligible - 9. Genia 10. Foley 11. Speight 12. Beale 13. AAC 14. O'Connor 15. Folau If Tomane is there instead of JOC, the back 3 all weigh 100kg's+ and Kuridrani is less important.
Red Kev
Roar Guru
No he's chosen because by the length of the straight this year the best locks in Australia have been Carter, Simmons and Douglas. Douglas is leaving, Skelton is a nice impact forward but not yet a good (note I didn't say great) international set piece forward. Coleman and Jones are coming along nicely. If anything only Horwill's selection can be questioned this year. Simmons makes good tackles, is good at the breakdown and in the scrum and exceptional at lineout time. If you think otherwise, tape the next two tests and watch them back focussing on his jersey.
Wolfpack
Guest
1-Slipper 2-charles 3- Kepu 4-Carter 5-Skelton 6-Higginbottom 7-hooper 8-palu 9-phipps 10-foley 11-mccabe 12-beale 13-asley cooper 14-Kurindrani 15- folau
Sam Taulelei
Guest
I dont believe it is a good thing for any national side to be dominated by players from one Super team. Its easy and simplistic to assume that because player A was part of a title winning side theyre automatically better than player A from another team. Every team, domestic and international will have their own strategies, tactics and gameplans. For some players, Super rugby is their pinnacle, the step to test rugby is beyond them despite their efforts however they continue to shine within their local team. For others, in a different environment surrounded by the best players in the country they step up another level or more and show what theyre truly capable of. There are some outstanding players in the Tahs who had stellar seasons, but its drawing a long bow to claim they are that much better than their state rivals at test level just because theyre part of a championship team.
Firstxv
Guest
to quote you combsey ...'ab’s always put out their best team'...as Jerry says Carter, McCaw, Kieran Read, Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu, Owen Franks and Brad Thorn. All rested. You dont go to SA without those players and expect to win. As I said Henry made a gamble on winning at Brisbane for the sake of not sending those 7, who had been played all year, and didnt need a jaunt to SA and back to Brisbane, and also to give guys like Dagg a shot at making the World cup, the Port Elizabeth test his first in ages. Henry said if not for that he wouldn't have made the squad, and ended up starring in the semi against Aussie. Had the gamble paid off Brisbane wouldnt have mattered, and they still had a second life there as well. The W's meanwhile, played everyone to the max using the bulk of the Reds squad. They wanted their cake and to eat it too. That caused the wheels to fall off at Eden Park.
Sportym
Guest
Keep drinking whatever tah koolaid you have mate.
Chris
Guest
I'm a Tahs supporter but I think Phippsy should stay on the bench. White offers an enormous boot which we don't otherwise have in close. He hasn't done anything to be dropped. I hope he doesn't. IMHO opinion the only mistake Link will make is the backs is to select Kuridrani. I said last year he needed longer at Super and I stand by that. AAC has been superb at 13 all year and should be a lock but won't be because Link likes the size. Forwards are more of a worry. The AB locks will be good at lineout, clean out, tackle and running. Their props will operate as part of a pod and will do their jobs effectively. Their back row will be strong and mobile. Our guys CAN outperform them, but will have to play with the same manic intensity the Tahs brought. A few people have bagged out the Tahs win over the Saders but they mustn't have been at the game. It was test match intensity and I don't believe the ABs would have been as much better as some think.
Bunratty
Guest
"While I disagree that the Wallabies will be weaker than the Waratahs, I think there is truth to the idea that the Wallabies won’t be significantly better than the Waratahs." Yes, I think this sums up the current situation in Australian Rugby. There still seems to be a significant space between the top two teams and Team Australia, whatever the provincial composition. However, this view may well change over the next few weeks. Time will tell!
s.t.rine
Guest
More I read the more I was depressed. Make good points as we forget how hapless the French were,. Even worse than Wales, so it's going to take mighty effort to beat NZ! S T
Jereme Lane
Roar Guru
For anyone else I would elaborate but because it's you two I'll just leave it alone
Rob na Champassak
Roar Guru
Looks alright to me.
Richie Walton
Roar Guru
Forgot about McCabe as a possible winger. Playing him opens up AAC at 13 an option.
Harry Jones
Guest
Likely Wallabies starting XV: Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Matt Toomua, Pat McCabe, Bernard Foley, Nic White, Wycliff Palu, Michael Hooper (captain), Scott Fardy, Rob Simmons, Sam Carter, Sekope Kepu, Nathan Charles, James Slipper. Better than the Tahs, but not by as much as the All Blacks will be better than the Crusaders.
Zero Gain
Guest
I say give them a go and when the Tah based Wallabies get thumped by the ABs then everyone will be calling for Genia, Cooper, Simmons and Horwill to be reinstated. Just like when the Ella's were picked over McClean and Gould.
Zero Gain
Guest
Genia.
Bluey
Guest
The players you named have not been/won't be playing for the wallabies...
Richie Walton
Roar Guru
Nadolo has 35kg's and half a foot in height over KB. He also had a fair bit of space and a start on Kurtley. I think the big man should win that battle 9/10 times. I agree he needs to improve his defence however. No reason he can't - Quade improved significantly and much smaller blokes get the job done. If he gets that aspect of his game in shape, he'll be a very complete player.
Rob na Champassak
Roar Guru
He has improved, certainly. I'd be prepared to give him another chance, so long as he plays a lot better than he did against the French.