2014 Missile Stakes preview

The 2014 Missile Stakes held at Royal Randwick feels like Christmas come early for racing fans with this year’s edition of the race giving us a quality taste of what is to come this spring.

Many of the horses in this race will benefit from the run but unlike last year’s edition where the heavy favourite Rain Affair was successful this year’s field appears a lot wider with some real quality entered in the field.

Boban was a quality horse last spring and I expect this year to be no exception, I will hide no secrets that he is one of my favourites heading into the spring. It wasn’t until Boban’s third Weight for Age race that the horse was successful with a maiden WFA victory, with a length win over It’s A Dundeel in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes.

The problem with Boban in this race is that he has won just once in his five attempts when first up, but his spell this time out was much longer than his spell between last year’s spring and autumn campaign, with his barrier trials already indicating that he could show a much improved performance first up compared to previous efforts.

Rebel Dane was in my opinion one of the most disappointing runners of the 2013 spring, produced a huge run on a heavy track to finish two lengths behind Lankan Rupee in the Group 1 T J Smith Stakes (1200m).

It suggested that Rebel Dane was going to do some great things, but he followed up that effort without running a place in which he was favourite for two of the races. One thing to consider is that Rebel Dane has an exceptional first up record with three wins and a place from four starts.

For me that is enough to consider him a strong chance, when you factor in the barrier draw and his record over the distance he should be hard to stop.

Laser Hawk is probably the most intriguing runner in the field he showed he had plenty of potential as a three-year-old when he won the 2012 Group 1 Rosehill Guineas. He then finished third to Ethiopia in the ATC Derby, the horse since then has been ravaged by injury running for just three starts since the Derby.

Has a new trainer in Joe Pride and there will be a lot of question marks after a 15 month spell. He’s had three trials which will help but I’m happy to take him on purely on the fact that we haven’t seen anything out of him in 15 months!

Hawkspur recorded just one placing in his five starts during the autumn with a third in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m). Hawkspur did claim fourth in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) and finished fourth again in the Group 1 Doncaster (1600m).

Hasn’t won first up from his five attempts first up with the best being a second placing in a Warwick Farm race over 1400m as a two-year-old. In my opinion the horse has the quality but will need more race fitness and it’ll probably be two/three starts before we see the best of this horse.

Messene has been lightly raced over his career and connections were rewarded when the six-year-old won four races straight last time out. In a Benchmark 95 over 1200m at the Kensington track before ending his run in the Group 2 Ajax Stakes (1500m).

He ended last campaign with a disappointing seventh in the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap, his strike rate is good and he has had two really quality barrier trials, should’ve improved over the spell and with a handy barrier and James McDonald on board he is a real chance.

Weary was super impressive during the autumn he won the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude before running places in the Group 2 Ajax Stakes (third behind Messene) and the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap and Group 1 All Aged Stakes.

Hasn’t been smashed in barrier trials recently and in his first start of his career he was successful in a maiden race in the UK. I expect him to charge home late but I can’t see him winning.

Sweet Idea is ridiculously consistent finishing in the top two for 10 of her 13 starts. Last preparation she finished first in the three-year-old Magic Millions Stakes, and then went on to win the Group 2 Light Fingers Stakes followed up by a close second to in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic to Steps in Time.

Finished that preparation with a ninth behind Lankan Rupee in the TJ Smith Stakes. Only queries here is that it’s her first Weight For Age event and the wide gate, however with Tommy Berry on board I’m going to rate her quite highly in this. She won her barrier trial and will more than likely have to fend her competition off in the straight.

Kirramosa ended her spring campaign with a Group 2 Wakeful Stakes/G1 VRC Crown Oaks double, however she didn’t get to race in the autumn. Word is she going alright but I’ll wait until we see a little bit more before I jump on board.

Thump defeated Sweet Idea second up last preparation in the Group 2 Surround Stakes with a really good race where she sat on the speed. She then finished eighth only 2.4 lengths behind Spirit of Boom in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes.

Finished the campaign with a fourth to Sidestep in the Group 2 Royal Sovereign Stakes but with a wide barrier draw in this race and against a smart field she might find this one difficult.

Prediction

Sweet Idea and Thump to scoot across from the outside barriers at the start. If Messene pushes up from the inside gate then it will give Rebel Dane in the fourth barrier the perfect sit all race.

I expect Waller’s runners to be hitting the line late but unless the pace is on it’s going to be hard for them to run the leaders down in this race.

Brent Ford Tips

1. Rebel Dane
2. Messene
3. Boban
4. Sweet Idea

Melbourne will get a slight scent of the spring when the Aurie’s Star Handicap is run this Saturday at Flemington.

Tiger Tees seems to be the pick of the bunch after opting to go with the Aurie’s star over the Missile Stakes. A Group 1 Galaxy (1100m) winner Tiger Tees certainly has shown quality previously and I expect him to be a bit too good for the runners of this field.

With that said one of the interesting nominations is Crackerjack King. The seven-year-old grey is a Group 1 winning import who has not raced since finishing fifth in the Arlington Million Stakes at Arlington Park in August 2012. He has won 7 of his 10 career starts.

I’m waiting to see a little bit more from him but it could be the start of a promising comeback with the David Hayes trained galloper aimed at the Cox Plate this year.

Last year’s winner Broken will look to go back to back after winning last year’s edition of the race but I believe this year’s field is a class above and the Darren Weir trained galloper could struggle here.

We’ll also get to have a look at Caulfield Cup hope Text’N Hurley who will be ridden by Chad Schofield, I personally think the trip will be too short but we’ll get a good showing.

Zamorar a last start winner is a big chance and Road Trippin’ is unknown down the straight but he’s got the ability to win this if he’s wound up for a first up tilt, he’s at big odds and wouldn’t shock if he won.

Pillar of Creation will go alright and is a big chance after having four weeks off between runs, I’m also not big on Shanghai Warrior but it could run a cheeky place.
Prediction:

Tiger Tees to show a little bit too much class, but there will be quite a few horses that will run a cheeky race.

Brent Ford selections

1. Tiger Tees
2. Road Trippin’
3. Text’N Hurley
4. Pillar of Creation