As Kenny Rogers told us in ‘The Gambler’, the secret to surviving at a card table is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
Over the next two years, the Greater Western Sydney Giants will need to apply this to their playing list.
For the rest of the competition, especially Victorian clubs, the raid of the GWS playing list will come fast.
This week there have been stories involving Dylan Shiel and Jonathon Patton, two players GWS are confident of keeping.
It was revealed that the Western Bulldogs enquired about Patton and offered the key forward a five-year contract, however were put off by what they had to give up. This meant that for a key forward that the Bulldogs desperately needed, they would most likely have to give up Tom Liberatore or Ryan Griffen.
In poker terms, if you want to beat pocket aces, you have to be willing to have something just as good.
At the end of next year, Jeremy Cameron will be out of contract. No doubt there will be a story every week about teams wanting his services until he signs.
Yet to get Cameron, teams will need to give an A-grade midfielder or key defender in the mould of a Nathan Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield, Harry Taylor, Cale Hooker and Joel Selwood. In other terms, a franchise player.
Two players who will be sought after this season are Jono O’Rourke and Kristian Jaksch. Both players are out of contract and were highly rated juniors, with the former pick two in the 2012 draft.
The question for clubs is what has to be given up to acquire both players. For St Kilda, there is an opportunity to give up pick one for both, in addition to GWS’ first round draft pick.
In poker terms, this is pocket aces against pocket aces in which both teams can’t lose.
Other players who will be sought after are Adam Treloar (expected to sign), Devon Smith, Tom Boyd, Nick Haynes, Adam Tomlinson, Stephen Coniglio, Toby Green and Will Hoskin-Elliott.
If clubs want these players, they’ll need the equivalent of pocket queens, king/queen, ace/king and pocket jacks.
We have already seen that GWS are not going to be pushed aside when trading. Despite being the new kids on the block, they hold all the cards.
In the two mini drafts, there was a reluctance from Victorian clubs to trade with them, knowing that to acquire Jaegar O’Meara or Jack Martin, the stakes were too high.
Yet the big winners were Gold Coast, having acquired both for their first-round picks in each of the last two drafts.
GWS have already benefited from trading their young stars. Taylor Adams was traded to Collingwood in exchange for Heath Shaw, who has provided GWS with an experienced defender and a leader.
At the end of last year, pick three Dom Tyson was traded to Melbourne after just 13 games in two seasons for pick two, which was used on Josh Kelly.
Come the end of next season, clubs will be knocking on the door, desperate to acquire key pillars of a premiership side. However it’s not going to be easy.
The best hand doesn’t always win the pot in poker, but GWS will not be bluffed.
Joel Clarke
Roar Pro
The reason I wrote it was due to stories that were in the paper and also a lot of discussion from supporters of Melbourne clubs who propose rediculous trade options. The simple fact is that we think that GWS are just going to be a feader club to everyone one else, when in fact, they are going to build a very sttrong playing list no matter what. If clubs want what they have, then they need to give up something just as valueable to get it. Are clubs going to have the cohooners to do so?
Bosk
Roar Rookie
Yes its a national competition, so I suppose I should just get used to the overwhelming majority of Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney & GWS's players being Victorians, most of whom if given a choice would probably prefer to play in their home state. I should probably also try not to notice the ludicrous amount of concessions all four of these franchises have been handed by the AFL, advantages none of the other 14 teams are given access to. Concessions which fly in the face of equalization and all of the AFL's rhetoric about wanting a competition that's as even if possible - even but with the caveat that the northern franchise teams contest for premierships as often as can be arranged in other words. Oh well.. these are the sacrifices we make to grow the sport in states who's populations are largely too backward and uneducated to appreciate our great game in the first place.
Keggas
Guest
All of these kids you talk about we're born around 1993 to 1996, we'll after the VFL ceased to exist and the AFL was in full swing. To suggest that the players "deserve to play for traditional clubs they were surrounded by as children" is ignorant and regressive thinking. It s a national competition and GWS are merely exploiting the generous concessions the rest of the teams signed off on. And for what it's worth Brisbane didn't feast on fitzroys carcass only 8 players made it from fitzroy to Brisbane and of them only CHris Johnson had any real impact. The days of Junction oval, punt road, Victoria park and morrabin are over, it's a national competition.
Declan McAllister
Guest
i think that their should another 2 channels on foxtel
Lenny
Guest
Interesting article and it won't be the last unfortunately until some of those stars sign... However I can't help but feel it's a little early considering most are contracted until the end of next year? With so much awesome footy being played ATM ... Why is this news?
Mark
Guest
Another day, another Bosk anti NSW AFL rant
Bosk
Roar Rookie
Love the analogy Joel. You're right that GWS holds all the cards, in more ways than one. The amount of top 10 draft picks on their list dwarfs that of other clubs, even Gold Coast. Coupled with the COLA which they are allowed to keep for inexplicable reasons, along with the NSW player academy and the NSW/ACT ambassador program, the AFL is doing everything in its power to ensure the franchise *WILL* be a success, and success in this business is measured in premierships. Unless the franchise winds up emulating Freo's fortunes at the trade table or Richmond's in the draft I can't imagine any scenario in which it doesn't wind up contesting multiple grand finals. Heck even Richmond never drafted Lounder, Banik & Tambling in consecutive years. GWS were gifted the TWELVE best 17 year olds in the country in 2010 followed by 9 of the first 15 picks in the 2011 draft, making it all but statistically impossible they don't wind up with a truckload of future All-Australians. Some will get homesick and leave, but so what? They'll be traded for more top 10 draft picks that will funnel more talent into Leon Cameron's hands. Add to this that GWS has been given an expanded list, its own recruiting zone, and let us not forget a free hand to poach established players from other clubs (wouldn't the Doggies love Callan Ward right now?) and what you have is the most sickeningly obvious attempt by the league to handout free premierships since the Brisbane Bears were allowed to feast on FItzroy's carcass..... excluding the Gold Coast of course. This is precisely why I hope all the Victorian clubs pillage and rape GWS at the trade table for all they're worth. Not only to foil the AFL's schemes but also because the vast majority of these kids are Victorians anyway. They deserve to play for the traditional clubs they were surrounded by as children and not some artificial Frankenstein creation engineered purely to make money. Sadly it won't matter anyway since the AFL has already let the genie out of the bottle. I bet the atmosphere at the GWS vs GC grand finals we can look forward to is really going to suck.
Steele
Guest
Dom Tyson is having a terrific year, not sure offloading him was the right move, regardless of Kelly's potential? This will be debated for some time yet.