Each year we hear about the importance of reaching the top four. The biggest statistic in finals’ football is that only once since the AFL commenced an eight team finals’ system has a team from outside the top four won the flag.
That team was the 1998 Adelaide Crows, when they came from a fifth place finish on the ladder at the end of the regular season to successfully win what would be back-to-back premierships.
The obvious reason, apart from the fact that the top-four teams have proven to be the best throughout the entire home-and-away seasons, is because of the pathway to the grand final for those inside the top four.
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>>West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies
Any of the top-four teams need to only win twice to make the grand final, and at least one if not both of those games are at their home ground – a massive advantage, particularly for the interstate clubs.
Interstate teams hosting preliminary finals have an amazing conversion rate of advancing to the grand final.
Since 1994, when the top eight began, 13 times a non-Victorian club has hosted a game in the penultimate week of the competition. That home team has won and advanced to the grand final on 11 occasions.
The only two exceptions, ironically saw the hosting team beaten by a fellow non-Victorian club, and that club wold then go on to win the flag a week later – in 2003 when the Swans lost to Brisbane, and again in 2006 when Adelaide lost to West Coast.
It’s going to happen again this year. The 2014 premiers will be one of the top-four teams, but not simply because of their easier path to the decider, but because they are clearly better than the teams which will make up the other four places.
After watching his team beaten by the Sydney Swans, Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley declared, “We’re not a long way away, but we’re not good enough to be with the best.”
It doesn’t matter if they are a little way or a long way, they aren’t close enough. And this from the man whose club not too long ago appeared to be the only challenger to those top four, and a team, while having slid dramatically down the ladder, still likely to be atop the ‘other’ four come September.
And he’s right. Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and Fremantle are so far ahead of the rest, it’s almost ridiculous.
There is usually one team which could, if things went right, fight their way through the finals and win it all from outside the top four. It’s not the case in 2014.
Having spent several hours on the AFL’s ladder predictor, I came up with a final eight that sees Hawthorn finish on top, Sydney second, Geelong third, and Fremantle fourth.
Then comes Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, followed by West Coast and Adelaide, and staring in from just outside are Collingwood and Essendon.
Port did beat Geelong this season but it was back in Round 6, and the Cats have improved, and Port slumped. Port also beat Fremantle back in Round 8, but the Power were a lot better back then.
North are the wildcards for many people, but which North turns up is often the problem. At their best they can compete, but being at their best is not a common occurrence.
The Roos did beat Hawthorn in Round 16, Fremantle in Round 6 and Sydney in Round 4, but they have also lost games to teams they shouldn’t have. If they are hot, they are a chance, if they are cold, they are also-rans.
As for the Crows, they are going better now than they were when the lost to Sydney, Geelong and Fremantle earlier in the season, and they did run Hawthorn to a couple of kicks, but again, look like world beaters one day, disappoint the next.
And West Coast, well what can we make of them? Losses to all of the big four, but in recent weeks they seem to have found some form. Some form, but again, not enough to trouble the big guns.
So now we’ll see the last three weeks play out, and watch those battling for a spot give blood and sweat to play an extra week or two. And the top four, jockeying for positions and more importantly form, heading into the September.
Geelong have been good in recent weeks, Freo are always a threat, but for me, it’s still Sydney and Hawthorn.
John Fedec
Guest
Kev, and Olivia is DEAD wrong !! 1st 6/11 2nd 5/10 3rd 3/5 4th 0/2 5-8 0/0 SO AND 3rd and 4th have won a combined "9" Qualifying finals SO that really means they are squandering chances in their home Preliminary Final !! 2003 Sydney hosted Brisbane at ANZ and got smashed in Q 4 2005 Sydney overcame Saint Kilda at MCG in Q 4 2006 West Coast overcame Adelaide at AAMI in 2nd half Finishing TOP 2 is somewhat important given the home team(since 1987 I believe) has a 70 % record in finals BUT it is by no means the all important lock people think it ! Brisbane never finished on top once in their 4 year streak of making grand finals !
Ando
Guest
Im familiar enough with the 98 side as mentioned in the article (and as a Port supporter I often claim to my Crows supporting mates that they stumbled across that flag and these days would've been out in the first week), but I'm not familiar with any advantage they got in 97. Could you elaborate?
Kev
Guest
Did I say that a team didn't get into the GF from third? Read my comment again. Pretty sure Brisbane came from third to win it during their era.
Don Freo
Guest
Freo looked inferior to Geelong? As if...You don't look at form,Michael, you look at results. On form on Saturday, Freo was superior. Love to play Sydney twice. Give us back the 8point game the umpires gave to the Cats.
Michael huston
Guest
You could also argue they have been lucky not to have to play Sydney twice. The draw is tricky, which is why I only look at form, and with all do respect to Freo, they've looked inferior to the top three over the past few weeks. But hey, things can change and probably will!
JKost
Guest
That's weird, I could of sworn I saw a team that came third make it to the Grand final in fantastic fashion, only to struggle under the hype of a maiden appearance. Freo could easily have won it, that's not to say Hawthorn weren't the best team all year, they definitely were.
GrumpyOldBastard@Singapore
Guest
Yes Olivia - you will be proven wrong by someone in the next three weeks. In fact, it'll be this week - when Fremantle beats Hawthorn. Cheers.
Kevin Martin
Guest
Why mention cows in 1998 ... Both 97/98 flag wins are flawed as cows got advantages they shouldn't and been booted out.. final system now changed so that outside top 4 team can't get get better advantage than the top 4
Axle an the guru
Guest
That weeks rest is a massive advantage going into the prelim Kev ,even back in the days of the old final five it was handy to win the second semi and go strait into the GF with the weeks rest.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Facts are facts Jim.
Natalie Swansfan
Guest
And my propped up Swannies have only missed the finals 3 times since, with two flags from three attempts and another one looming. Nah, not propped up, just the best recruiters of the last two decades. Go the Bloods!!
Kev
Guest
"Each year we hear about the importance of reaching the top four. The biggest statistic in finals’ football is that only once since the AFL commenced an eight team finals’ system has a team from outside the top four won the flag." - That's an oft repeated stat but what's not as well known is that the side that finishes 4th hasn't won a flag in that period either, and the side that finishes 3rd has only gone on to win the flag once, The top 4 might all make the prelim but it's only the top 2 who have a genuine shot at getting to the GF and winning it.
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
It's a funny old year. We have four runaway teams atop the ladder - yes folks, I know Fremantle is a game behind but that can change - with one faltering team hanging on and a red hot go for three more positions rounding out the eight. Injuries look like cruelling Adelaide just when they need it least but they'll make it, North can beat anyone when they feel like it, Port should hang on and the last finallist could be one of four sides but I'm going for Essendon. Sadly for Port, North, Essendon and Adelaide I don't see them having the personnel to win enough clutch games to make the GF. If even one makes a Semi Final they will have exceeded themselves. Now, the top four. I don't think finishing on top is worth anything beyond bragging rights for your supporters but a top two finish with home final is essential. As things stand, Fremantle and Geelong can only move up if the Hawks and Swans drop games. I don't think Saints and Tigers at home or Doggies away will trouble the Swans but I expect the Swans to rest a few and just do as much as they have to, so I predict Sydney on 72 points with a slight % rise.. Hawthorn and Geelong is worth paying a premium for your tickets for but I lean just towards the Hawks. I don't think Hawthorn will drop a game either but their % should dip, so also 72 points and a toss up between them and Sydney for top spot. Geelong drops the one game against the Hawks and finishes on 68 points and third and Freo takes fourth on 64 having dropped the game against the Hawks. And my one guarantee is the next three weeks will see me proven wrong by someone!
johno
Guest
West Coast? Adelaide? Adelaide could get a "home" final if they finish 8th and Port 5th West Coast could play Freo if they finish 8th and Freo 4th then lose the first week of finals.... Both teams have power forward lines.
Jim
Guest
'Then got a soft semi playin an AFL proppped up Sydney (some things don't chage)' Just like some people don't stop whinging Brian!
Don Freo
Guest
With the quality of this side, it may as well be a purple enamel.
Axle an the guru
Guest
OMG Don. I hope you dont want to desecrate the premiership cup with a can of purple spray paint.
Don Freo
Guest
Except, in a season like this, with thrusts of possibility from teams (NM and AC) then waves or ripples of disappointment (WC, Coll) and imposters who still hold a place but shouldn't and probably won't (Essendon)...there is still a possibility for improvement. I think it is quite possible for a team like West Coast or Adelaide to peak and gel together for 3 consecutive games in a final. I think NM could do something similar. Collingwood could win one or two. Richmond, maybe one. Port and the Dons? Nah. I don't think these things will happen but if the trends of a year hold up, this is a year that it could happen. I just can't accept that historical patterns have any say in what happens in any single game. Top 4 teams have a logical advantage because they have more cards stacked in their favour. In reality, however, all any team has to do is win their next game. On the basis of current form (based on the last quarter played this year), given the quality of the opposition, history suggests that the team most likely to win the next 24 quarters of football wears purple.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
That's outstanding :-)
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
I would rather see the possibility of a side streaking into September and having a crack at it from the bottom half of the 8.....than seeing only the top 4 get the chance. This year is a great example of that slim possibility of North or Port getting into the GF from 5th and 6th. It won't happen, but it could.