Lemon's winners and losers, AFL Round 20

The final phase has begun. The time in an AFL season when hopes are vindicated or demolished, wishes bestowed or ignored, and fortune can make the difference. Some are up, some are up all night, some are getting lucky.

Geelong’s final-siren survival was the biggest win of the round by a long way, a classic eight-pointer in terms of their ladder position versus Fremantle. It was also the Cats’ most impressive win since Hawthorn in Round 5.

CATCH UP ON THE LATEST AFL HIGHLIGHTS:
>>Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers
>>GWS Giants vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
>>Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast Suns
>>Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons
>>Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans
>>Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers
>>St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs
>>West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies
>>Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows

The Dockers would have jumped Geelong into third place, level on 56 points each, had David Mundy not faded to the right with the final kick of the night. Instead the Cats’ lead stayed at two points in the match and pushed out to eight on the ladder.

But it’s not fair to focus on Mundy, given Freo were wasting shots at goal right from the first quarter. Nor is it fair to act like the Cats were just lucky, given they attacked with intensity, hit the front early and were never headed.

All night, Fremantle punch was met with Geelong counterpunch. Harry Taylor played one of the most dominant defensive games ever. It felt like the entire final quarter was played in Fremantle’s forward 50, but the Cats held under pressure, and broke forward for Mitch Duncan to kick what turned out to be the sealer.

The sides have developed a huge rivalry: during a run in which Geelong set the record for the highest percentage of wins from 200 consecutive games, Fremantle beat them four times out of five before Saturday’s game. Winning two in a row at the fortress of Kardinia Park would have been especially impressive.

But having had the final coin come down in their favour, Geelong can attack the final phase of the season with new belief.

Finishing second or third isn’t likely to matter much, with a first final against Hawthorn the most likely option either way, but the Cats would of course prefer to beat the old enemy and tackle the finals on their own terms.

Sydney won well against a Port Adelaide side that challenged them throughout. We all know Port have crashed after their initial flyer, but they competed hard on Saturday night, and remain a difficult prospect on their home ground.

A slip-up from Sydney could have been dangerous with Hawthorn and Geelong at their heels. Now the Hawks are top by a couple of percentage points, but that won’t last: while Hawthorn faces tough games against Fremantle away and Geelong, Sydney have three easy games to pad their percentage.

Adelaide were the other big victors of the round, crashing their way up to seventh place thanks to a huge margin over the Lions. In a logjam of teams on 40 points, Adelaide now have the best percentage, and if they could knock off North Melbourne in Hobart in a couple of weeks, they could even claim sixth and a home final.

People are also trying to talk up Richmond and West Coast as a chance for finals, but optimism is getting out of hand. It’s true they both played exciting football, the Eagles in a thrashing and the Tigers in a thriller, but neither side has beaten a truly firing team all year.

Collingwood have been in a nosedive for weeks and Essendon have been patchy all year. The wins were good for West Coast and Richmond self-respect, but they’re not going to clear the 40-point pack, and they wouldn’t be able to do anything with the chance if they could.

And so to those who lost out the worst. Fremantle are now no hope of a top-two finish, which means an away final first week. As good as they are, travel alone must make winning a flag from Perth a monstrously difficult achievement.

The Dockers’ confidence won’t be dented, though their frustration may boil over. We are set for an absolutely belter when Hawthorn travel to meet the Purple this Sunday afternoon. Fremantle must tear into the Hawks to keep their own finals feeling alive.

Collingwood have dropped six of eight games when they probably should have dropped one. They’re out of the top eight again. There is a deep malaise at Victoria Park, and if Nathan Buckley can state that every one of his players voted their own effort as below par, it speaks of a guilt and despair that makes it pointless for them even to turn up.

Essendon stumbled once more and were only saved from dropping out of the eight by even less competent weekends from the Pies and Suns. At this rate eighth spot will be claimed by whoever sucks the least. Their only likely reward will be a trip to play Port Adelaide.

As for the Gold Coast, it has been a sad thing to see them fall apart without Gary Ablett. Carlton have been a much improved team the last few weeks, but the Suns have now lost to three modest opponents in four, and could hardly have looked more flat in the process.

With such talent at their disposal I was hoping their next tier of players would step up. Unfortunately it looks like they’ll need the spur of this year’s disappointment to make it happen next time around.