Take two: Were the Wallabies selected on form?

Back on June 5, just before the French Tests, I posted an article regarding whether the Wallabies were selected on form.

Now the team for the first New Zealand Test has been announced I thought it might be timely to post a similar evaluation.

Predicting who is in form at this stage is a little trickier than it was back in June. The Waratahs stand tall in our minds having won the 2014 Super Rugby competition. The Brumbies are the next most prominent in our minds but, having been beaten by the Waratahs, the form of any one of their players relative to their Waratahs counterparts is questionable.

The form of players from the other Australian teams is a hazy memory with a tendency to be coloured by hope and provincial bias.

Nevertheless it is a possible and interesting exercise to compile a list of eligible players who are in form and compare to the Wallaby team selected. I will go through each of the Australian teams, list players in form and allocate a totally subjective form rating out of 10. Those not listed are either ineligible, injured or I consider not seriously in form.

Waratahs
Adam Ashley-Cooper, 10
Bernard Foley, 10
Michael Hooper, 10
Kurtley Beale, 9
Nick Phipps, 9
Israel Folau, 8
Wycliff Palu, 8
Will Skelton, 7
Rob Horne, 7
Sekope Kepu, 7
Stephen Hoiles, 7
Benn Robinson, 6

Brumbies
Nic White, 8
Matt Toomua, 8
Pat McCabe, 7
Tevita Kuridrani, 7
Sam Carter, 7
Scott Fardy, 6
Ben Alexander, 6

Reds
Liam Gill, 7
James Slipper, 7
Samu Kerevi, 7
Rob Simmons, 7
James Hanson, 6
James Horwill, 6

Force
Matt Hodgson, 8
Nathan Charles, 7
Pek Cowan, 6
Sam Wykes, 6
Ben McCalman, 6

Rebels
Sean McMahon, 6
Colby Fainga’a, 6
Luke Jones, 6
Scott Higginbotham, 6
Tom English, 6

There are 22 players I’ve rated with a form score of seven or higher. Just pick them and we’ve got ourselves a team, right?

Unfortunately it’s not that easy. Some of the in-form players I’ve listed aren’t even in the squad. In other cases we have are lacking in-form players for certain positions.

As I commented after the team announcement, there seem to be two polar opposite opinions doing the rounds on what the make-up of Wallaby team for the Bledisloe Test should be. On the one extreme I think we have the stay-the-course approach, sticking with the team that beat the French (barring necessary injury substitutions). On the other we have the try-something-different approach.

Despite some of my more radical nominations of in-form players above, I probably lean a little towards the stay-the-course side. My rationale is that we are on a course of gradual improvement and chopping and changing hoping that one day we will magically strike a combination of players that ‘works’ is counterproductive.

Nevertheless, as Brett McKay mentioned in his excellent ‘Bledisloe headaches for Ewen McKenzie‘ article, there were few areas of contention – namely front row, lock, scrumhalf and centres. I’d add wing spots to the list as well. So let’s consider the make-up of the team in the context of form.

1. Loosehead prop
Form player: James Slipper
Player selected: James Slipper

James is the leading candidate for this position. Backup being Pek Cowan since Benn Robinson isn’t in the squad.

2. Hooker
Form player: Nathan Charles
Player selected: Nathan Charles

We’ve been hit really hard with injuries in this spot but Nathan has been with the Wallaby squad for a while and I don’t think will let Wallaby fans down. James Hanson is also an able backup.

3. Tighthead prop
Form player: Sekope Kepu
Player selected: Sekope Kepu

A mirror image of the other prop selection, Sekope the leading candidate with Ben Alexander as backup.

4. and 5. Locks
Form player: Rob Simmons, Sam Carter
Player selected: Rob Simmons, Sam Carter

While Rob never sets the world on fire, he has nevertheless been one of the more consistent performers for the Reds this season. At this stage he also appears vital from a lineout perspective.

Marked down a little bit through injury, Sam was nevertheless in excellent form in his Wallaby debut and deserves another shot.

Obvious backup seems to be Will Skelton whose form seems superior to James Horwill.

6. Blindside flanker
Form player: Scott Fardy
Player selected: Scott Fardy

By my observations the form of Scott Fardy has tailed off a bit as the Brumbies season wore on and he certainly doesn’t seem to have the impact and presence around the field that he did on the 2013 end-of-year tour. Stephen Hoiles is in better form but since he isn’t in the squad, Scott is the man.

Furthermore there appears to be No obvious backup to Scott at the moment which should be a bit of a concern for Wallaby selectors. Or, being more positive, an opportunity for the future. If only Scott Higginbothams form had been more promising this year, I’m sure he would have had more of a look-in for this spot.

Looking to the future, you would hope that perhaps some of the number of promising openside prospects could be trialled on the other side of the scrum. I’m thinking people like Liam Gill and Sean McMahon. Perhaps also Luke Jones? If David Pocock were to return to form, would we dare revive the dual fetchers experiment? A more immediate prospect along these lines would be Matt Hodgson.

7. Openside flanker
Form player: Michael Hooper
Player selected: Michael Hooper

Openside flanker is at the moment one of the least contentious selections for the Wallabies. As an 80-minute player, the need for a backup on the bench is diminished but should one be required, the obvious candidate at present is Matt Hodgson.

8. Number 8
Form player: Wycliff Palu
Player selected: Wycliff Palu

While Ben McCalman and, to a lesser extent, Scott Higginbotham showed some form earlier on in the season, both have tailed away. A rejuvenated Wycliff Palu is the obvious selection. The backup backrower is the interesting selection dilemma.

9. Scrumhalf
Form player: Nick Phipps
Player selected: Nic White

While Nick and Nic have been neck-and-neck most of the season, I’m going to have to go with Phipps. His play in the finals was superb and I’m banking on a better combination and understanding with the flyhalf I’ve selected.

10. Flyhalf
Form player: Bernard Foley
Player selected: Kurtley Beale

Flyhalf and inside centre are the only selection decisions that can really be considered not form-based. Bernard the clear winner at flyhalf as far as I’m concerned. The ice in the veins shown to slot that penalty to win the final is exactly what is required at Test level. Toomua was the only other real candidate I considered but I’m voting for him to continue at inside centre.

12. Inside centre
Form player: Kurtley Beale
Player selected: Matt Toomua

In shuffling Beale in one place, we’ve shuffled Toomua out on another. The Toomua inside centre selection has merit and been proven and I’m all for sticking with it at Test level.

13. Outside centre
Form player: Adam Ashley-Cooper
Player selected: Adam Ashley-Cooper

Kuridrani has been solid but Adam has been outstanding this year and finally selected in the position he has the most specialisation.

11. and 14. Wings
Form players: Rob Horne, Pat McCabe
Players selected: Rob Horne, Pat McCabe

An unexpected (and unexciting?) pair of wingers but I think the form available wing options and therefore good selections. For mine I would have found Kurtley a home on the wing as opposed to at flyhalf at the expense of one of the above players.

15. Fullback
Form player: Israel Folau
Player selected: Israel Folau

As usual, a bit of a no-brainer here.

So all up a very form-based team – even down to the reserves. McCalman and Higginbotham haven’t been in the best of form late in the competition but they are close to the best cover for the back row we have available at the moment.

This all boiled down to: How do you solve a problem like Kurtley? McKenzie looked through the team and decided he gains more than he loses playing Beale at 10 in place of Foley. I guess that’s what they call a problem you like to have. Time will tell whether it’s the right move.