On Tuesday Wallabies great Matt Burke wrote a piece regarding why Australia can (and will) beat the All Blacks. It was audacious, and at times illogical stuff – it was, however, indicative of something bigger.
A pragmatic and reasoned voice would argue that while the Wallabies have won seven in a row – a significant achievement – the All Blacks have won 17. If this is the metric used to measure future success, the New Zealanders are two and a half times in front of their trans-Tasman counterparts.
Advantageously, the Wallabies will play two games in Australia this series, but travelling doesn’t seem to bother a side that has only lost on the road once in two years. Moreover, the Wallabies are without five key players that make most of their senior leadership team whilst the All Blacks are dropping players of calibre – Israel Dagg and Charles Piatau come to mind, and resting others – Liam Messam.
I do not believe that this game is a foregone conclusion, no side featuring Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale and Adam Ashley-Cooper should be ruled out of a home Test. The All Blacks though, should go in deserved favourites.
Matt Burke may be able to get away with a few logical fallacies, namely owing to the fact that he is arguably one of the greatest fullbacks of all time – and a good person. But the rest of us cannot.
A full-strength Wallabies team of 2014 would represent a serious problem for the All Blacks – and whilst they may not play together this year, for the World Cup they will be a contender – and rightly so.
But not at the moment.
While every test for the All Blacks is do or die, this is currently not the case for the Wallabies (let me stress ‘currently not the case’) – and there are a couple of reasons for this and it is not necessarily a bad thing.
Firstly, the All Blacks are number one. This means that they are constantly under pressure to preform and maintain their premier world ranking. Simply, there is only one direction for the All Blacks in terms of rankings – and it’s down. This is not the case for the Wallabies, they can still improve.
Secondly, as long as the Wallabies continue to improve they will remain a world force – particularly with a weakened team. A close All Blacks victory (say five points or less) will speak volumes of a team missing five starters, including a captain and a vice-captain. Simply, and despite the hype, this game is not representative of a true Wallabies team as it is the All Blacks.
Ultimately, the seminal point to come out of this first Bledilsoe Cup Test is this: was the game beneficial to Australian rugby? Has the ARU done enough to promote the Wallabies and attract a larger fan base that can grow the game nation-wide but most importantly in New South Wales?
Australia’s rugby community tends to wear its heart on its sleeve but this is not the Test to do so. The Wallabies are fielding an inexperienced and injury stricken side that is far from its best. The All Blacks on the other hand, are looking to set a world record for most tests won consecutively, with their top team.
Undoubtedly, the Wallabies are on the rise – but a rise takes time.
On Saturday the All Blacks will, unless there is a major error, walk out of ANZ Stadium with the task of reclaiming the Bledisloe in Eden Park the following week. The Wallabies will know the challenge for the coming weeks and months.
The Test though should be fast, exciting and full of passion – this generation of players is capable of playing a brand of rugby that can restore its popularity in Australia.
While there is a new breed of Wallabies coming through, this is not yet their time to shine.
Deanos
Guest
Ben - really great article. While you clearly have great insight and a well balanced perspective I feel you've neglected one very important point - that Beauden Barrett is amazing and literally no man, or team, can defeat him. Looking forward to seeing his performance tomorrow night. Sport.
eyeball
Guest
Sounds like a typical apologist for oz rugby, getting in the excuses early such that a loss does not reflect poorly on em or the team. Win/loss for NZ = doom and gloom for the AB's. Won/loss for oz = sunshine and rainbow fairies supporting a dead cert win in the next rwc. Oz fans are desperate for success against the AB's. One win won't instantly. change years of dominance. It is a competitive sport and oz fans should be able to expect more than the occasional win. get a 50/50 win/loss record established over a number of years and then start celebrating a golden age of equality. Step 2 is to then try to dominate the AB's over a number of years to prove you are the best team on the world. Ignore warblings about the importance of a single non-rwc finals game.
Jackster
Guest
ABs wont lose at Eden Park. One day they will but not next weekend.
Magic Sponge
Guest
Tane you know your rugby but you aren't good at picking results. I cant see how this will be close , Vader is right with the sand analogy, your argument is clutching.
expathack
Guest
Charles, Carter, the entire backrow (including Cliffy now), Toomua, AAC, McCabe, Horne would all be in my "Passion and Heart" XV. Feel like we have that "honesty" in spades now. Not that the others selected don't have heart of course. Just the guys above are more likely to be ripping it the full 80 no matter the opposition, no matter the circumstances. Would also put Phipps in there now based on what we was doing in the Super finals
Ben Gibbon
Roar Guru
I would happily, both carter and woodcock are great players but i dont see either as absolutely 'self-selecting' anymore
expathack
Guest
Moore, TPN, Pocock, Genia, Cooper, Tomane would all be in the 23 if uninjured. Not having Faumuina and a 33 year old Tony Woodcock available isnt really in the same. Carter is obviously different. But then again NZ has such an embarrassment of riches at flyhalf its something they can cover.
Louie
Guest
One big difference from the past I've not seen anyone mention is the Wallabies are fitter now. The AB use to alway have a big edge here and knew they just needed to wait for the last 20 mins for Wallabies to fade. Think how often they have turned the game around in the championship minutes. The Crusaders learned this last week...waiting waiting waiting...but the Tahs didn't fade. That's the difference now. If we can get a lead we can keep it, or even sustain an uptempo game and keep putting it to them. I believe we can finally play 80min football. I expect the ABs to win this one and the series, but they will not win 3 blot this time around. Would love to see the Wallabies take them at Eden Park.
Xenomorph
Guest
Is the NZ side full strength? Are Carter, Faumuina and Woody not injuries? Yet Aus missing the likes of Cooper and Genia is a loss but nothing was made of NZs losses, their inclusion of Luatua as reserve lock or that McCaw has been down on form and C.Smith is only just returning from injury. None of that was mentioned except Messam is being rested and theyve opted to drop quality players. Yeah right, Messam isnt being rested unless McCalman is and as if Aus hasnt dropped players. They should have included Messam to have 4 guys to cover 6. But just as long as poor wee Australia keeps improving and then one day when they are under pressure like the ABs and play a "do or die" type of game then they will be hard to beat for NZ but thats when they are a true indication of a Wallabies side. Paaalease.
Xenomorph
Guest
Based on player form, home advantage and player match ups. Should I base it on history? If I do then I can come to the conclusion that Australia does win some games or have you forgotten? Which history do you base it on because the history between the teams isnt just a series of Ws for NZ, there are plenty of Ls Bazza.
Xenomorph
Guest
I do understand that the Saders had 7/8 ABs in their pack with 5 starters for the ABs and the Tahs had 3 starters for the Wallabies. The Tahs won and yet now that the Wallabies forward pack has been boosted by adding 5 players to that Tahs pack and the ABs have only been boosted by 3 it is a done deal and Australia cant win? Ffs thats just completely wrong and to suggest that this "law" only applies to test rugby and not club rugby... Its not a law at all and although a lot of teams can rely on their forwards to win the truth is that Aus have won a very large amount of games where their forward pack hasnt been as good as the oppositions. That applies to all teams at all levels. How often was Australias forwarard pack better than SAs when Deans was pulling the strings? Was it ever? Must mean they lost every game right? The game will be won and lost accross the entire 23 and to be completely blunt, if you think that only 13 players of the 23 have an impact on the result then you dont wtf you are talking about. I know you arnt saying this Bottles but some do. I apologise if this is too abrupt but sheeeesh...
Zero Gain
Guest
No game is foregone conclusion. And definitely not this one.
44bottles
Roar Guru
Waratahs =/= Wallabies Crusaders =/= All Blacks Crusaders beaten =/= Crusaders forward pack beaten Lord Vader is going over the top with some of his predictions but you must understand there is a difference between franchises and national sides.
bigbaz
Roar Guru
Ahh, at least your beginning to see it.
Bazza Allblack Supporter
Roar Rookie
Based on what? History? Beating the cheese eating surrender monkeys? Self belief?
Existentialist
Guest
Hi X, Fair point ... but Ben does do it with an air of quantitative and qualitative understanding. In my view it is a lot more open minded in his analysis/opinion than others. He does state - "I do not believe that this game is a foregone conclusion" ... anyway, I didn't see it as patronising lets just hope he eats his words eh?! ;)
Xenomorph
Guest
The fact that a ABs forward heavy Saders got beaten by a Tahs outfit not register with you? The idea that the game is going to be won by the team with the "better" forwards is an oldie but not a goodie.
Xenomorph
Guest
Kepu, Slipper, Charles, Fardy, Hooper, Palu, Carter and Skelton have been in great form. The game wont be won and lost there for Aus.
Xenomorph
Guest
An open mind? He stated that they wont win! Not that they might or could but that they wont fullstop. I think its patronising and displays a closed mind but there you go. I expect the Wallabies to win this test.
somer
Guest
But you should apply the same argument to the ABs who are missing Carter and Woodcock, both World class players who trump Moore. The only selections - Genia, Cooper and Pocock are debatable, they've either been out of form or injured for so long that you can't presume they'll significantly change things.