Missile Stakes 2014 review and looking forward

This years’ rendition was a very competitive one thanks to a good tempo set by the winner Sweet Idea.

She posted two sub 35 second sectionals over the 1200m which isn’t overly common, it was very hard for those midfield and rearward in the race to make too much of an impression.

Runner Comments (First to Last)

SWEET IDEA  – Certainly deserved her win and she looked the one best suited by this distance first up. She has a big heart, and after looking in trouble half way down the straight she rallied to hold off her main challenger Messene. She is well capable of winning at least one more race of this type over the next month or two. Jockey Tommy Berry said that she would improve from the hit-out. She is yet to win a race with less than 21 days between races from 5 attempts (3 placings). Admittedly one of those placings was her best career effort in the Coolmore but it was off a substandard performance prior, so just maybe she would prefer a 3 week break after this hard fought win.

MESSENE– Was a bit of query runner prior to this race because he was untested at this level, and was poorly weighted under the WFA weight scale. He came through with flying colours though and should improve at 1400m to 1600m. I can’t see an obvious weakness in his career stats and he has a very good 3-1/4 record second up, so 1400m next up would be ideal. He is headed to the Cox Plate but I’d imagine the Epsom at a mile is well and truly on the radar before then. His one go at the Randwick Mile in April was undermined by a bog track, but given a better surface next time he should be well weighted to win that race.

REBEL DANE – This was his seventh run without a victory now and given he did win 6 of his first 10 starts it must be becoming somewhat of a concern for his connections and followers. This was his 7th run at WFA level without a win, and during that time he has conceded significant weight to his opposition twice in handicap races and failed to win either of them. He has won 2 of his last 10 races and on those occasions carried 55.5kg and 54.5kg. I doubt he will be allotted a low weight like that this Spring. He heads to Melbourne now for the Memsie Stakes at 1400m again at WFA level.

BOBAN – Was the eye catching runner in the race after missing the start by some 2-3 lengths, his eventual 4th placing under the circumstances was extremely meritorious. Given the last 600m time in the race his last sectionals must have been outstanding, so the signs are good for him in the coming weeks. One concern is that he bled during his last run before a spell so if that happens again his Spring and career could be over. That could be a negative for his next outing. At a mile missing the start probably won’t affect the result as much as it did here, but at 1200m it proved the difference between winning and losing. Cox Plate the ultimate goal but will he even get there?

WEARY– Was in the same category as Messene in this race in regard to his class credentials at Weight For Age. 1200m is clearly short of his best distance so to finish only 1.5L from the winner was a very encouraging effort. I distinctly remember Chris Waller saying in the Autumn that we would see the best of this horse in the Spring so it is onwards and upwards from here. He has only won 3 from 14, none beyond 1500m and is 0/4 at a mile. Yet his ultimate goals are the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup.

KIRRAMOSA – One of the most disadvantaged here having not raced during the Autumn, or since her win in the VRC Oaks last Spring. She faded a bit late (after looking a winning hope early in the straight), but to finish less than 2L from the winner here was very commendable. She wore bandages so she must have had injury concerns that necessitated the long spell. Hopefully they were only precautionary and not a sign that problems might reoccur. She is entered in the big 3 races in Melbourne, Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup (not official) so expectations are high.

HAWKSPUR – He didn’t do anything spectacular but held his ground all the way down the straight to the finish line. Is yet to win in 11 attempts under a mile also 11 starts without a win which is a major concern. His career stats suggest he is probably better on rain affected ground, though his last win was actually a 3.5L cakewalk on dry ground over a mile at Randwick. That win was second up last Spring, and his last second up run in the Autumn was a vast improvement on his first up effort. So if he goes to a mile second up this time in he could be a surprise packet.

LASER HAWK – His first run in 18 months for a new stable so not a great deal was expected of him. Got well back in the race, and was wide in the straight, but did well enough over the concluding stages to offer some hope for the Spring. His best was a Rosehill Guineas win over Ocean Park, a horse went on to win the Cox Plate, so his best is clearly very good. His second up runs have been very good in a short career and maybe new trainer Joe Pride can bring out the best in him and we might expect the Blinkers to go on in the near future.

THUMP – She wasn’t on song here and it was the same for her first up last preparation. Her only 3 wins have come against her own sex. Her last 2 wins have been on Dead rated tracks, and she is a top class mare given the right scenario.