Many premiership sides are built around a dominant key forward or two. In finals football, heightened intensity from both teams typically causes not just greater congestion but also more intense pressure on the ball carrier.
Offensive tactics which were consistently successful in the softer environment of the regular season may no longer work.
Spotting up teammates on the lead or creating a free man through overlap is less easily achieved.
When such strategies are neutralised by the opposition, sides have no option in attack but to go old school and kick the ball long to a contest inside 50 metres.
This is where key forwards like Tom Hawkins, Jarryd Roughead, Kurt Tippett, Jay Schulz and Taylor Walker earn their keep.
For Fremantle, that long option is Matthew Pavlich. The 192 centimetre, 99 kilogram spearhead has fulfilled the role brilliantly in September, with 21 goals from his last seven finals.
In last year’s finals series he was a crucial contributor for the Dockers as they burst into their first-ever grand final. Pavlich did not tear games apart, but posed a regular threat inside 50 and opened up space for his smaller teammates.
But last year he entered the finals in solid touch with two bags of four goals in the last three rounds. In 2012, when he almost single-handedly got them into a semi-final with six goals in an upset win over Geelong, he was in sublime form, having slotted 48 goals in his final 11 regular-season matches.
This year, however, the signs are not so good. Pavlich is mired in a rare trough of his remarkably consistent career.
He has just six goals from his last five games, and three of those majors came against the floundering Greater Western Sydney, who routinely allow opposition forwards off the chain.
Last week, as his team battled to keep their top-two hopes alive, Pavlich had next to no influence against the Cats. His solitary scoring shot for the game was a behind in the dying moments when he hit the goal post after being given a chance to put Fremantle in the lead.
If Pavlich’s uninspiring form continues, the Dockers are no hope of claiming their first flag this season. Fremantle’s biggest weakness is their lack of scoring power. Without Pavlich firing it seems extremely unlikely they can overcome a likely difficult September draw – they may well have to beat both Sydney and Hawthorn away from home just to make the grand final.
In an apparent effort to boost their impact on the scoreboard, the Dockers are considering playing four small forwards this week against Hawthorn in Perth.
Dockers coach Ross Lyon said on Wednesday that Hayden Ballantyne, Hayden Crozier and Max Duffy may all play alongside returning gun goalsneak Michael Walters.
“It’s exciting,” Lyon said. “We’re not the tallest, but we could play them. They’re real offensive threats.”
He’s right – Ballantyne and Walters, in particular, are out-and-out stars, arguably the two best small forwards in the AFL.
However, as good as that pair are, it seems improbable they can propel the Dockers to the flag on their own. Pavlich must start having a bigger impact on games, or Fremantle will fall short yet again.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Haha sure looks like it mate!
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I'm some kind of genius?
Tom from Perth
Guest
Don't worry Ronan, he's fired!!
Balthazar
Guest
But I also said midfield and our midfielders are pretty tall. Last year we didn't have Pav so Walters and Mayne did a lot of the heavy lifting. This year, we lost Walters and Mayne has had little impact in the forward line. Freo has again adjusted, through Ballas but also through more output from Fyfe, Barlow and (before his injury) Hill. I also am not sure I agree that small forwards can't have impact in finals. Ballas got enough of the ball last year in the GF but had an epic meltdown. Walters was pretty efficient for a bloke playing with a torn PCL. Small forwards looking only to crumb - yes, it would be a hard journey. But if your talls are making the contest (even if they're not marking the ball) and can protect the ball, and if your smalls are able to lock the ball in through forward pressure and are strong on the lead anyway (as both Ballas and Walters can and are) why won't they be effective? People think of Ballas as a crumber. He's not. You don't win a Sandover Medal and kick 75 goals in a year doing so unless you can get your own ball
Don Freo
Guest
I’m sure Pav will take that on board, Michael…he’s new to all this (only 600 goals).
Don Freo
Guest
I'm sure Pav will take that on board, Michael...he's new to all this (only 600 goals).
Bosk
Roar Rookie
Yeah, but good luck relying on smalls to win finals. KPPs come into their own in September because the time & space small forwards need to operate vanishes, and delivery also suffers as more pressure is applied further up the ground hence more long bombs that need to be marked or at least brought to ground. Doggies had the two best small forwards in the game at the time in Johnno & Akker and couldn't even make a GF. This is why Freo won't be going all the way unless Pav & Mayne stand up when the real stuff starts.
Michael huston
Guest
Gecko you make an interesting point. More often than not, there will be a midfielder with at least 3 goals a game at least a few times per round. Forwards kicking goals has taken a back-seat to forwards simply presenting as an option. Countless times I sit frustrated at teams inability to find a target inside 50. Wasted long bombs result in endless rebounds by defenders like Birchall, Taylor, Enright, Malceski, etc. It's mind-numbing. If a tall forward can at least create a target in the forward line simply to ensure the ball actually stays in the forward 50, goals will be far more frequent. It's why Franklin and Roughead are the leading forwards for me. Even if they can't take a contested mark, their presence and follow up work puts pressure on the defenders, which is why both are particularly pivotal in numerous scoring shots. If Pavlich can at least create a contest, it will give Ballantyne and Walters and Suban and co a far better chance, rather than just being beaten easily one on one and allowing his opponent to have a paddock. Pavlich could look to his midfield pairings of Sandilands/Fyfe and Sandilands/Mundy to try and emulate that sort of forward pressure with Ballantyne or Walters.
Steele
Guest
Good post Ronan, I think your right. Lyon really needed to recruit another power forward last year. His ability to constrict opposition has nearly won him flags, but I think he needs to focus more on offence. I guess a lot depends on how well Walters plays after a long lay off as well. Maybe they should go after Waite next year? They missed out on Mitch Clarke and Gumbleton has just been Gumbleton(injured). Even Patton could be an option?
Balthazar
Guest
Bosk I assume you know that Pav was injured for half the season last year and it was Freo's smalls, Mayne and midfielders that kicked most of their goals, not Pav? That's why we are so keen to see Walters back
Don Freo
Guest
...or not.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
Who cares. They aren't a top 4 team, they don't matter. Freo won't be playing the Eagles in this year's finals. The concern for Freo is that I would hazard a guess Geelong, Sydney & Hawthorn are all converting more often when they kick to Hawkins, Franklin & Roughead respectively. Fact is if Freo's smalls don't fire in this year's finals your team probably won't even make the big dance since Pav's days of successfully carrying the forward line on his back appear to be over.
Balthazar
Guest
Not necessarily. As Gecko said and as I tried to say less clearly by reference to statistics - if your tall marking forwards don't mark but they still bring the ball to ground then if your forward pressure is good enough you can still lock the ball in your forward line and score healthily. I see Ross has dropped Suban and de Boer but retained Clarke. Reckon Clarke will have to make amends for his effort against Harry Taylor (he could easily have been dropped for Taberner) but, regardless, with the 4 small forwards - the Hobbit Express - and the 2 talls in Clarke and Pav, and Ross leaving out his beloved defensive forward, this is the most interesting team I have seen Ross put together. hmm is Duffy at 184cm a "small"? And will Crozier play off a wing anyway?
Simoc
Guest
I for one think Freo can and will win the flag this year. They came home well against the Cats and will probably improve from there. The ball pressure was excellent and that is what wins finals footy. The only downside is that I will have to fork out a fortune for the big weekend in Melbourne.
Don Freo
Guest
Yes..and that's where stats are often red herrings with commentary on the game.
Don Freo
Guest
Ah...If I can cope with Macca and Gene, I've got Mum covered...unless she IS Macca or Gene.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
You should also know my Mum reads all my articles so any undue criticism of me will see you added to her blacklist.
Gecko
Guest
Just a comment about tall forwards in general. Nowadays their output needs to be measured with less emphasis on goals kicked and more on other stuff like high balls that are brought to the ground, space cleared through blocking/ bullocking, knock-ons, handballs, tackling pressure and 'presenting' as midfielders look for a downfield target. The best tall forward at that stuff is Jarryd Roughhead, with Hawkins and Pav not far behind. Jack Riewoldt is getting better at this and has at least now reached Cloke's level. If guys like Ballantyne, Walters, and Breust were playing for Brisbane, and Josh Green were playing for Hawthorn or the Dockers, Green would probably be their equal. What I'm saying is that a good tall forward like Pav helps small forwards perform well even when he's not kicking goals.
Don Freo
Guest
Pav, The Premiership X Factor
Don Freo
Guest
You could write a regular article, Deep Purple, From Mum's Kitchen.