With just two rounds remaining, the Geelong Cats are currently sitting second on the AFL ladder – tied with the Swans on 16 wins and one win ahead of the Hawks. Yet the general belief among most pundits is that they don’t look close to playing at the level of the 2012 grand finalists.
So my question is, how can a team be genuine contenders for the minor premiership, but not the premiership proper?
Let’s have a look at how the Cats have been faring lately.
In Round 14, Geelong lost to the Gold Coast 118-78. But since then, they haven’t lost. Seven wins a row should always by cause for celebration, right? But it’s the way they’ve been winning that’s concerning. They’ve been good, but never great.
Since that loss to the Suns, five of the Cats’ seven victories have been by less than fifteen points. Whereas the Hawks and the Swans have been winning mostly in emphatic fashion, Geelong has been scraping by.
If you asked a random selection of AFL fans to name the best teams in the comp, the vast majority (myself included) would categorically declare Hawthorn and Sydney as premiership favourites. Some might even throw in Fremantle, especially after their 20-point victory over the Hawks last weekend. But the Cats are an anomaly.
Individually, the Cats’ players have been superb. Tom Hawkins is in the hunt for the Coleman Medal with 52 goals. Stevie Johnson has been his usual excellent self, Steven Motlop has been in great form since returning from injury, and Joel Selwood remains one of the best players (and leaders) in the competition.
So why aren’t they winning by big margins? And does this actually matter in the lead up to their finals push? Can the Cats win their fourth trophy in eight years?
The lack of big wins might be evidence that the Cats can’t compete with the very best. However, perhaps the fact that they keep managing to win games that are so close, games that other teams might let slip away, is evidence that they are tough enough to really make a dent in this finals series.
Finals matches aren’t going to be run away victories. They are close, gritty, and tough. The Cats have proven time and again that they can win in the clutch, that they can perform in the last two minutes when a game is hanging in the balance. Just look at Friday night’s match against Carlton.
Geelong are clearly confident in their own ability. They don’t stop playing until the buzzer sounds, and play some of their best footy with mere seconds left on the clock. It’s exciting, it’s frustrating, but is it enough? I still tend to think probably not, but I have no idea why.
Of course, the big test will be next week. The Cats tackle the Hawks at the MCG, a match up that for the past five or six years has given rise to some truly sensational games of football. I think we can expect another absolute classic on Saturday.
What do you think Roarers? Can Geelong challenge Hawthorn and Sydney for the premiership in 2014?
Gecko
Guest
Motlop and Christenson are also worth mentioning as potential A-graders but you'll still have to replace a lot of guys who've been A-graders for 8-9 years and whose skills have been a key part of Geelong's ability to 'take the game on through the middle'. Half a dozen other teams look better placed for 2016.
Gecko
Guest
Gene it also means another potential 40-50 games in every other team's midfield. And some of the other younger midfields of today look like they'll be at the same level or better than a midfield of Selwood, Caddy, Stokes, Murdoch, Duncan, etc in 2016. Amongst those, Selwood will be the only definite A-grader. Compare that to the likely midfields of GWS, Swans, Power, Dockers, Richmond, Adelaide, Bulldogs and Brisbane. And it takes time for a team to work instinctively together under pressure. Some other teams have got their runners in place right now, gaining experience together, whereas Geelong will have to bring in new faces to replace your veterans, and they won't gel immediately.
Cat
Roar Guru
But that means another potential 40-50 games and 2-3 more finals series (including this year) for all of Geelong's young players like Kersten, Caddy, Motlop, Christensen, Duncan, Horlin-Smith, Guthrie, Hartman, Lang, Thurlow, Blicavs, Murdoch, Bews with Vardy and Menzel to hopefully get fit and playing again. Caddy, Motlop, Christensen, Duncan, Guthrie and Horlin-Smith all already have the makings of A grade players (not saying they are all there yet but the potential certainly has been shown). Add in whatever Wells drafts and recruits in the next 2 years and I honestly don't see Geelong going away anytime soon.
Gecko
Guest
Sorry Gene. Yeah I meant come 2016, key midfield/flankers like Johnson, Bartel, Kelly, Mackie and Enright will be gone or on their last legs. Without those experienced ball-movers, I'd expect Geelong would fall back to around the bottom of the 8, if not lower. Similar thing will happen to the Hawks.
Don Freo
Guest
Surely you know what Gecko means by a key runner, Gene. It's easy enough to work out what he means. Duncan to West Coast. Bartel to a forward pocket. Johnson to FIFO suspension. Varcoe to injury. Stokes to Melbourne and Selwood to Hollywood.
Don Freo
Guest
Crozier is doing that this year...doesn't cost quite as much.
Cat
Roar Guru
Gecko?
geoff
Guest
Germany stumbled in the world cup until they blew brazil apart 7-1
geoff
Guest
Dalgety Who are you referring to as poor decision makers and what errors have they made?
me, I like football
Guest
BS Geelong controlled the majority of the match on Friday night
Don Freo
Guest
Imagine someone trotting out statistics to prove whose buy it is next!
Don Freo
Guest
Yeah...cos they are what keeps me informed about what's really happening.
Cat
Roar Guru
Nah, just more Bosk accounts popping up making conspiracy theories while all while being to scared to name his own team.
Axle an the guru
Guest
If Geelong do win the premiership,,which they can the same as anyone else,then there's going to be a few people eating their words on this site.
AB
Guest
I'm a Hawthorn supporter and I'm not expecting a "heavy defeat for Geelong against Hawthorn this weekend." It'll be close, as it always is between these two teams. Geelong always finds another gear against Hawthorn. But in the end I don't think it matters much. I expect they'll be meeting again in two weeks time, regardless of who wins on Saturday.
Darren
Guest
Geelong is about the same place they were last year. The difference this year is they have won all(has to be some record) of their close games. They are currently 2nd on the ladder but I rate them 4th for what it is worth. Their forward line is their Achilles heal. Also, I think their focus on attack requires greater talent than they have otherwise they get exposed in finals footy. Can't see them getting past the prelim.
Fabes
Guest
Weird from a Cat Supporter.
Fabes
Guest
Fair go guys lol. Rather have Lake than no Lake. I think he will be immense in the finals. I also see spangher as pretty solid, he's no McPharlin but he's okay. We could use schoeny as a pinch-hitter up forward. He can kick them mind you. I don't know. I rate them. Just funny some of these comments. I mean literally. I do have a chuckle every now and then. I do rate Freo's defense though! Wow! ...and yes Harry Taylor is a gun!
Darren
Guest
Carcass
Guest
Carlton was the better team over the two meetings of the clubs this season. Only some fortunate errors by Carlton players and Geelong umpires helped the results go the way they did.