This week delivers another gripping match as old foes as Hawthorn and Geelong reacquaint themselves in the quest for a top-two spot and home ground advantage come finals time.
These two sides have dominated the competition since 2007 and that is in no small part to some wonderful drafting by both clubs. But a quick glance at the years leading up to their current eight-year hold on the AFL shows a missed window for Hawthorn.
The Hawthorn juggernaut was built on the back of the 2004 national draft when the Hawks selected twin tower forwards Jarryd Roughead and Lance Franklin with their first two selections at picks two and five. Throw in potential future captain Jordan Lewis at pick seven and this was the base that the rest of the team was built around for the next decade.
The final pieces were put in place at the 2007 draft table, with dynamic forward Cyril Rioli taken early, and Stewart Dew a speculative late pick. He would have a huge influence in the 2008 grand final.
But the 2005 and 2006 drafts were a case of what could have been for the Hawks. It probably cost them winning numerous flags between the 2008 and 2013 successes and creating a dynasty not seen since the Demons in the 1950s.
In 2005 the Hawks looked set to dominate the draft with five selections within the top 22, but only one would be a success. While Xavier Ellis, at selection three, was a premiership player, he was often injured. Towards the end of his career he was not in the best 22.
Instead of Ellis Hawthorn could have had one of the best midfielders in the game Scott Pendlebury, or a strong key forward in Josh J Kennedy. Hawthorn fans may point to the previous year’s draft as to why Kennedy wasn’t selected but that made the pick six selection of Beau Dowler even more curious.
Too small to be a key forward but not quick enough to run through the middle, Dowler was cast aside after 15-odd games when quality players Mitchell Clark, Shaun Higgins, Nathan Jones and Shannon Hurn were still available.
Grant Birchall at pick 14 was a rare winner while Max Bailey at selection 18 was a quality player but cursed by injury. Rounding off was Beau Muston, who like his namesake Dowler did not last long at Hawthorn, while players like Bernie Vince and Garrick Ibbotson were taken soon after.
The depth in this draft continued with the Hawks’ final father-son selection of Travis Tuck. Taken at 38, Kangaroos skipper Andrew Swallow was still available at pick 43, key Port back Alipate Carlile at pick 44 and Mathew Stokes at pick 61.
The following year was an unmitigated disaster for the Hawks, with not one of its five selections still at the club. Clearance king Josh P Kennedy is now doing reasonable things at Sydney.
The Hawks were keen on another power forward and used pick six to select Mitchell Thorp, who through a combination of injury and poor attitude would last only three seasons. It’s now time for Hawks fans to close their eyes and imagine that not only could Pendlebury have been lining up in the middle but he could have been paired with Joel Selwood, who went at pick seven.
In another cruel twist for the Hawks, pick seven was owned by Geelong and Selwood would dominate the centre square with his courage and fortitude on his way to becoming an AFL great. So not only did they miss out on the game’s best current captain but he fell into the waiting arms of the Cats. He is one of the main reasons Geelong enjoyed 11 straight wins during the “Kennett Curse” era from 2009 to 2013.
Even skipping down the order a few more spots and Collingwood got their premiership centre half back and fullback in Ben Reid and Nathan Brown, who the Hawks could dearly use right now. The Demons and Tigers used picks 12 and 13 on James Frawley and Jack Riewoldt. Rounding out the selection failures with Brent Renouf at pick 24 and Jarryd Morton at pick 33 the Hawks could have had any of Chris Dawes (28), Kurt Tippett (32), Todd Goldstein (37), Will Schofield (50), Lindsay Thomas (53) or Robbie Gray (55).
It is true that every club experiences draft hits and misses, and I’m sure Hawks fans will care little about these two missed drafts considering that two flags have been delivered, but it is interesting to think about what might have been.
Don Freo
Guest
Ablett was being played on a wing...every now and then. Alan Jeans probably missed one there. Wish Dermie was a team player on commentary.
andyl12
Guest
The issue was that Ablett Snr was not disciplined enough for the coaching style of Allan Jeans. We didn't "trade" him- he left because he felt his style wouldn't get him regular games at Hawthorn. What gets mentioned even less is that we probably wouldn't have had room for Ablett Snr & Brereton in the one team. Of course Ablett Snr could do more amazing things than Dermie but football is a team game and Dermie was more of a team player. Ablett Snr's failure to play in a premiership to me has plenty to do with his failure to do team things.
Jack
Guest
You could offer Freo 2 Pendleburys and they'd still pass it up and chase some Donkey like Gumbleton. Fyfe standard? Like missing that 'pressure' goal in the granny, unlike pendlebury who walked away with the norm smith
Don Freo
Guest
If you could offer me 2 Pendleburys for one Selwood, I'd still take Selwood. Pendlebury tends to disappear under pressure whereas Selwood is almost Fyfe standard in pressure situations.
Michael huston
Guest
I'd rather Pendlebury than Selwood, but that's just me...
andyl12
Guest
Agree Jake- if we win this year we have probably had a better era than Geelong- we did miss the finals in 2009 (when the Cats won a flag) but winning back-to-back flags (something Geelong have failed to achieve) would probably trump this.
Ben
Guest
Selwood..games best captain? Yep okay. Luke Hodge says hello. You seem to forget that if hawthorn took pendlebury in 05, they prob wouldn't have been in the running to select Selwood. But don't let the truth in the way of a good story.
Brian
Guest
Paul Roos said this week that at draft time many teams are unrealistic. I think that's one area where Hawthorn has been reasonable. Ever since 2001 when Croad was traded to get Hodge in as No 1 pick there seems to be a bigger acceptance of trades. People talk about the recruits in our team (McEvoy, Lake, Hale, Gibson, Gunston, Burgoyne) but there's the same quality in other clubs (Franklin, Kennedy, McGlynn, McPharlin, GIlham, Ellis, Young). Mostly what has been done is an acceptance of missing out on luxuries in positions we are strong, forwards and inside midfielders to cover holes in key backman and Ruck. Jolly was crucial to Collingwood winning in 2010 and if Sydney do win this year it will be thanks to the Tippett and Buddy recruiting. Geelong different in being a combination of generous father son rules - Scarlett, Hawkins & Ablett which no longer exist and getting to train and play on the same ground which the government and AFL funded. Its a perk of being a regional town club and it helps, if you look at the teams that play on the concrete at Docklands, none has won a flag since the Dons in 2000 and I dare say none are looking close to doing so in the near future.
Don Freo
Guest
That Hawthorn traded Ablett rarely gets mentioned, does it? Could he not get a game? One of the great footy stories.
Don Freo
Guest
Interesting what expectation does. I reckon that if Tambling was taken at, say, # 50 in the draft, he'd still be playing and possibly one of the significant performers in the comp. Talent wasn't the problem and application probably wasn't either. Expectation can murder confidence. I'm still trying to please my wife (and I only know one way...feels good though).
Brian
Guest
Yes if you want to talk dynasties if we had kept Kennedy & McGlynn we would probably be back to back premiers right now and strong favourites for 2014. Still if Richmond had taken Franklin and left us with Tambling we might have 0 premierships. Its footy back in the 80s we let a guy called Gary Ablett go. We lost him and I guess his son too. We've won 7 flags since then which is more then anyone else, its pretty amazing we let go the best father-son combination in the history of the game.
Gecko
Roar Pro
Jake you raise a good point about Geelong's luck with father-son picks. But Geelong's only the most glaring example of where a 'develop your list rather than recruit from other clubs' model has reaped rewards. Collingwood won the 2010 flag with only one significant recruit (Jolly, with minor roles played by Luke Ball and Leigh Brown) and the Saints and Dockers have recently reached GFs without recruiting significantly from other clubs. You'd have to conclude both models can deliver a flag, though I agree the Hawks-Swans model is the quicker path, if a team's salary cap can fit in expensive recruits.
Jake
Guest
And consider you bang on here about Sydney's 'unequal' advantage, considering what Geelong has been able to do.... I wouldn't throw rocks from glass houses Gene......
Jake
Guest
Your kidding? You think you would have dominated without Scarlett? Or that being able to 'arrange' the Ablett-Bartel draft combo didn't help? That being able to 'reserve' Tom Hawkins until pick 41, who would have easily gone top 5, whilst taking Selwood at pick 7!? You think none of this helped your dominate era?!?! PLEASE! If Hawthorn had the ability in '04 to place ablett on their father-son and take him at #30, then use the top pick for Hodge, you think it wouldn't help? They would have killed the comp! Geelong has been 'fortunate' rather than having great recruiters
geoff
Guest
Such a pointless article on many accounts. So the success and development of players at other clubs can just be cut and pasted into the hawks line up and work seamlessly can it? This is pure daydreaming. It adds no value in football discussion. What if....what if....what if....
Cat
Roar Guru
two out of three of them have been gone for a number of years now and Geelong is still up there ... so much for your theory.
Jake
Guest
Hawthorn and Sydney's model is the way to go, Geelong lucked out big time with the 3rd round father-son picks, ablett, Hawkins and Scarlett all went in the 30's. Unbelievably lucky, without the rule I doubt this era would exist.
Paul
Guest
Bit harsh on Muston. He did his knee twice. Kennedy chose to leave. Tuck was going fine until issues away from football kicked in. Ellis was among the best players in two Grand Finals. Pretty sure there are a few clubs out there who would be happy with two flags, a chance at another one or two and a couple of near misses in this era.
Gecko
Roar Pro
I think Paul D is right. Nick you probably could have praised the Hawks' recruiters a lot more because overall they've been very effective. In fact, it's interesting that the 2nd and 3rd most dominating clubs of recent years (Hawks and Swans) have achieved success by recruiting extensively from other clubs. If it hadn't been for Geelong's amazing ongoing success, we'd all be saying that the Hawthorn-Swans recruitment model is the way to go.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Hawthorn can thank Don Scott for keeping them alive and Jeff Kennett for making the decisions that no one else wanted to,if it were not for these two men Hawthorn would not be where they are today.