2014 Carlyon: First up specialists to wage war in sprint

Spring racing has arrived at Moonee Valley and the Group 2 Carlyon Stakes (1200m) sees the return of some very fast and talented sprinters. A few have already raced at Group class level, whilst others have shown great promise and could easily step up to that grade.

As you would expect in a 1000m race there is an abundance of speed engaged, and in this one there is certainly no shortage of horses who relish a break from racing and are ready to fire fresh.

Sea Lord – Is getting to the veteran stage at age 7 now and it has been 12 starts and 19 months since he last graced the winners stall. His best days might be behind him and the best statistic I can find for him is an affinity at this track where he has won 4 from 7. He has failed his last couple of starts here though and this is not his best distance. Hard to see him figuring.

Kencella – A very slick young sprinter who likes to fly along in the lead. Has won both his first up runs by career best margins of 5 lengths & 6 lengths. He has a stable change from John O’Shea to Chris Waller and a Tongue Tie is applied. I’d expect that tactics will be to ‘go for broke’ in the lead and hope he can gain a winning break on the corner. He is a Group 3 winner in three-year-old class, so he has the ability but is quite poorly weighted. That won’t necessarily stop him though at this short trip, it’s just a matter of whether anything else is good enough to beat him and I think they will be.

Villa Verde – A very talented mare and the class horse of the race having won a Group 2 Weight For Age race in Sydney during the autumn. She did that first up over this distance at Randwick in a very hot race, and these gallopers are yet to prove themselves as good. She is 2-2/4 first up and is 3-1/4 at this distance. In her two-year-old year she was one of two in that age bracket that were able to runs times faster than older horses at the same distance on the same day, so she had always had the ability. She couldn’t run the distance in the Golden Slipper at that age, and in fact she hasn’t won in 8 starts beyond 1000m. This race looks perfect for her as she can sit behind a fast pace and go ‘bang’ in the straight. She wears a Tongue Tie for the first time, and although she is yet to start here, she did visit during the week, and ran the fastest last 400m of the day. She looks primed and will go close to winning, with the only possible negatives being a wide barrier and a weight she is yet to carry to victory.

Uate– Scratched

Iconic – Another who can produce a big run first up, as he showed last Spring when he actually beat Villa Verde conceding her 2.5kg. In this race he is in receipt of 1kg from her so is definitely a winning chance. Since that day though he has proven to be a bit of an enigma, failing to win in 6 starts. Given that last win was on a Slow track my assumption (for a while) has been that he at least needs the sting out of the track and probably a return to similar Slow rated conditons. He hasn’t been lucky enough to strike a similar surface yet but look out if he does! His trainer thinks he is probably a bit shy of being a top grade sprinter but that doesn’t mean he can’t win this at his best. He did win a barrier trial recently, but again it was on a very wet surface.

African Pulse – Has had his share of injury problems, and all his career wins have been first up. He isn’t fresh here but at least he has a bit of fitness on his side, and he did return to something like his best form with a close second last start. That was against inferior opposition though and he carried a lower weight. He was Gelded before this preparation and could be nearing his peak (condition wise) as an older horse that isn’t as highly strung. This is the only distance he has ever won at too, so he isn’t the roughest by a long way. I just need some convincing that he his quite up to this class.

Our Nkwazi – An old favourite of mine but I could not see him winning at Open class Saturday level against decent opposition. But he did just that last start, and he does enjoy racing below 1200m and handles all types of wet tracks. His best chance of placing here would be on that sort of surface, but it is highly doubtful he can win this whatever the track situation. Fitness is in his favour but the class of the event isn’t.

O’Malley –  is a very promising galloper that has run good time in restricted class races and is yet to run a poor race in five career starts, winning three, and placing runner up on the other two occasions. This is a massive leap in class for him though, and he gets little or no weight advantage from some high class opposition. He is fit, likes this distance, and is likely to be suited by a hot pace, so it will be interesting to see how he performs in this grade. Certainly some sort of a place chance but hard to see him winning.

Just A Bullet – Another with an almost faultless career record from very few starts, but he is up in class and strangely hasn’t been able to win at his only 2 first up attempts (he has won all his other starts). One thing he will be is nuisance value to the leaders, because he does have very good early speed. Probably not quite up to this, and you would like to see him with a lot less weight, but it is hard to knock his career record carrying big weights in lower class races.

Shamal Wind – Has a sensational first up record of four wins from four attempts and has a similar profile to Villa Verde, in regard to her affinity for the distance and racing pattern. She was super impressive winning first up at this distance at Caulfield in the Autumn and her jockey that day (Ryan Moloney) was quite astounded with the performance, stating he couldn’t remember riding a horse that “had let go like that” for him and that “she basically toyed with them”. She is unbeaten from 4 starts at 1000m or below, and only 2-4/12 beyond that, so again we can draw paralells with Villa Verde. The other bonus is she has won here (1/1), and VV hasn’t, and it too was first up from a spell. She has only won at listed level, and failed twice at Group 1 level, so she probably needs at least the 2kg she gets off VV in this race. She has drawn wide but she will probably drop back to near last so it shouldn’t be a big negative. Look for her to storm home outside late.

Angelic Light – Resumes from a very long 16 month break, but is another who boasts abundant talent being Group 1 placed against her own sex. Her best form is at 1100-1200m though and I suspect she just might lack the brilliance to beat these off such a long lay off at 1000m.

Minaj – A lightning quick mare who is going to make sure there is no loafing up front. Very much like Kencella she is a ‘bomb’ fresh and has gapped her opposition by similar margins at her last 2 fresh runs (6.5 lengths & 5.5 lengths). She is 2/2 here and 2/2 at Mornington which is a similarly proportioned track to Moonee Valley, so a tight turning circuit is much to her liking. She has won at Listed level against her own age but has been found wanting a couple of times against better class opposition. At the weights I can’t quite see her beating home either Villa Verde or Shamal Wind, but she will almost certainly give a big sight, and could bring Kencella undone with her early speed.

Angels Beach – Rounds off an absolutely stellar race and is possibly the one horse most capable of going to the next level. On raw stats so far she can’t quite compete with the better class mares in this, but, she has very similar first up and distance credentials. She probably ‘maps’ better than any other runner, having drawn the inside and is quite liklley to get the ‘gun’ run just off the hot speed provided by Kencella, Minaj & Just A Bullet. She used to be a bit of a barrier rogue but had mended her ways by the end of her last preparation, so she could be well on the way to being the finished article this time around. Note she is unbeaten Spring/Summer but failed to win in 3 starts last Spring, so that could be a negative. Ideally you would prefer to see her with a kilo or so less, but I’m expecting a good performance all the same off an apparently very impressive jumpout

Summing up this is some race, and it might be a case of “Blink and you’ll miss it”. I’m basing my selections on those that have performed well in better class races to date, but have to concede that luck in running could play a part and we could see one or two in this about to make a name for themselves.

If the track became severely rain affected I would be going with my 4th pick here, and quite clearly.

Tips:
1. Villa Verde
2. Shamal Wind
3. Kencell
4. Iconic