Underboks: Projected to lose in Salta, South Africa to win at a canter

The scrum is toast. The lineout is in shambles. Ruan Pienaar scored the only try thus far in the tournament, but nobody in his home country believes in him.

Yep, South Africa are the underdogs this week.

The young saviour Handré Pollard is discredited or demoralised. Cornal Hendricks’ first weakness exposed for all to see: he is shaky under the ‘Garryowen’.

Willem Alberts is injured, and thus, we cannot make the gain line. The maul is hackneyed. South Africa is descending into a new Dark Age.

Sprinkle a few drops of holy water on these Bok babies and they melt. A baptism of shame awaits in Latin America, a papal excommunication from clear second in the world, to a team beaten by the twelfth rugby apostle.

The numbers, history, the mood, and realism support this bleak view.

Perdition on the Pampas: it is over, the seven-Test winning streak, the bright view of the future, the four-try average, the defence will even crack, and all we once loved about the formidable Bok loose trio will come undone.

In their first year as a Rugby Championship invitee, the Argentineans drew with the highly favoured Springboks, and South Africa was lucky to get that result. Only a Frans Steyn chargedown try saved Heyneke Meyer the ignominy of being the first Bok coach to lose an official Test to Argentina.

Last year, in the same stadium in vineyard-rich Mendoza, after a 73-13 hiding in Pretoria, the Pumas clawed and scratched (and maybe even bit) their way to a tense finale, with Morne Steyn saving Meyer again.

You would think that the Argentine power brokers would pick cold Mendoza again – third time’s a charm. But the drenched and embarrassed Boks will now see a new site: the city of Salta.

Salta is a colonial city in the far and dusty northwest corner of Argentina. The weather is projected to be 33 degrees in the afternoon, and balmy at night.

The size of the stadium will remind many of the Boks of high school derbies: 20,000 fans only. The predicted mood: enraged fury.

The field is Bloemfontein hard; it might suit Willie le Roux’s chip-and-chase game. He was one of the few Boks to emerge from the deluge of Pretoria with his already world-class reputation enhanced.

He has worked to become a high ball specialist; the two best exhibits of this proposition are last week’s Test in hail and driving rain with very fired-up Pumas chasing with great desire; and the first June Test against Wales in which le Roux was magisterial in the air. Textbook timing of the leap, the sideways cradle, the intent to attack when landing.

But why would the Boks be better in Salta than Pretoria? Can Francois Louw play better than last week? Two pilfers, sixteen vital tackles, Argentine ball slowed to a standstill, a couple of lineout takes, and full bore engine for 80 minutes against an inspired Argentine pack? Won’t he be sore and mortal?

I wrote recently about what it’s like to be Duane Vermeuelen. We all know that Thor is part human; only partly a god. Last week he had to hammer down behind a back-pedalling scrum. Will a 22-hour flight restore his power?

Last week, Pienaar created and finished a beautiful try in the first stanza of the Test. Won’t it be years – or never – before we see this anachronistic anomaly again?

With Meyer obviously outmatched by Daniel Hourcade, the all-Shark front row toothless, the gangly Lood de Jäger entrusted with masterminding the lineout, Eben Etzebeth still regaining match fitness, the hole left by Alberts, their breakdown woes, the painstakingly predictable service of Pienaar, the probable return of Steyn in the deep, deep pocket, from whence no probing attack ever was launched, the mismatched and pass-adverse midfield of Jean de Villiers and Damian de Allende, the lonely forgotten Bryan Habana, and a bench that brings no zip; the Boks are the underdogs.

But they’ll win in a canter, after a brutal first 20 minutes of bare knuckle brawling. Boks by 15 or so; with a nice array of highlights.

Why?

1. Weather matters in rugby
Maybe more than in any other sport, except golf. I agree with the criticism of the poor adaptation skills by the halfbacks and the captain and vice-captain last week, and Meyer is ultimately to blame.

But the Argentines won’t be able to rely on hail and locusts and frogs and darkness this week: it’ll feel exactly like the weather on the du Plessis farm. There will be space and there will be mismatches at 2, 4, 6, 8, 11, 12, 14, and 15.

Rain obscures; but a good hard field exposes speed and power differentials.

2. Embarrassment
External and internal motivators both tap into the power of embarrassed, proud men, who have dedicated their lives to being the best.

Look for five forwards to play inspired mongrel rugby: Beast Mtawarira (a warrior who never got anything easy), Bismarck (who has been cursing softly for 100 hours), Eben Etzebeth (who is not happy and won’t be happy until scores are settled), Louw (who has never been the happy-go-lucky guy he seems), and Vermeulen (no commentary required).

This is a core. They feel bad. They want to make things right.

3. Meyer has earned their respect and love
Watch how Meyer takes responsibility for failures, but is very critical of minor technical points when his team wins easily. Love him, hate him, or ‘meh’ him, Meyer has this team playing for each other, for him, and they don’t relent.

I expect a highly focused and razor-sharp Bok team to take the field in Salta. They would despise giving Meyer the distinction of ‘first to lose to the Pumas’. They’ll play for Meyer.

If I’m wrong, I’ll write an ode to the glory of Wyatt Crockett’s soaring boring backside.