The first Group 1 race of Spring has finally arrived, and it looks like an interesting one with a good mix of serious contenders and horses that are resuming and looking to put in some nice performances.
This $400,000 weight-for-age event has attracted 16 entries with acceptances and the barrier draw to be held on Wednesday morning. The field of 16 includes eight Group 1 winners, so we should be in for a ripper of a race.
Historically this race has been kind to the favourites, with six of the past 10 winning and none of them missing a place. It is hard to go against this trend with current joint favourites Messene and Boban both looking in good order after impressive first up runs in the Missile Stakes at Randwick. They finished second and fourth respectively.
Messene will be better for the run and Boban will appreciate the extra distance after hitting the line hard.
On the next line of betting is Gai Waterhouse’s four-year-old mare Sweet Idea. She had a good first up win in the missile stakes and Gai believes 1400 metres is her pet trip. She will lead them out and will not be easy to run down.
Also challenging for the lead will be Peter Moody’s six-year-old gelding Moment Of Change. He ran a handy first up second where he had to lug 62 kilograms. But he will be better for that run and will be looking to get back to his form from early in the year when he won two Group 1s.
Of the other runners, there are three entries that are currently at double figures in the betting that I would like to touch on.
Chris Waller’s Foreteller was excellent first up when he ran a fast finishing fourth in the Group Two P.B Lawrence Stakes. He will be better for the run, look for him to be hitting the line hard once again.
Paul Berisha’s seven-year-old gelding Happy Trails was ok first up when he came really wide around the home turn in a race that was not run to suit, and he has since run a good trial. This race should be run at a more preferable pace, so look for improvement.
The last is Peter Moody’s second entry, Dissident. He was a late with the draw from last week’s Warwick Stakes at Randwick due to the heavy conditions, and was prepared for that race with a solid hit out at the trials in Sydney. He has a good first up record where he is yet to be unplaced and he should sit on the speed and get a good run in behind the leaders.
This looks to be a cracker of a race and a great way to start off Group 1 racing this Spring. In a close contest I am tipping Boban to come out on top of Foreteller, Messene and Dissident. I can’t wait.
Colin Smee
Guest
The Memsie stakes is a great race this year with some very interesting runners looking to the future. I think Moment of Change is the horse they have to beat, but for Buffering, Shamexpress and Black Caviar you could add (4) further group one's to the (3) he already has. He was a little disappointing last time but 62 kgs is a big weight against a rock hard consistent sprinter like Hard Stride first up. This looks the most likely group one target for Moment of Change as all (3) of his group ones have come over 1400 at Caulfield and to me was good value at $7.50, has come in somewhat since then though. Sweet Idea is a gun mare but first time in Melbourne second up from a spell and not totally convinced about 1400 for her at WFA . I felt Messene had her at her first up run but his condition gave out towards the end giving Sweet Idea the edge. Messene will be improved and I see him finishing ahead of Sweet Idea on this occasion. Boban is the wildcard of course. He can do anything and turned in one of the performances of the spring last year when seemingly hopelessly placed at Caulfield over 1400 in the Moonga stakes, that was against Strawberry Boy and Galah. I can't see him giving that sort of start and reeling in Moment of Change in this. Of the others they are either not up to this in the case of Gig or have bigger fish to fry this spring.
Richard Hosnell
Roar Pro
Yea looking forward to seeing how Commanding Jewel runs after nearly a year off, that looks a good race up against Gregers who is flying and as you said Real Surreal is a good chance. Think the Memsie is set up for something to fly home late, pace should be solid with a few genuine leaders, time will tell!
Richard Hosnell
Roar Pro
Have to agree with every thing you have stated Bondy, although I am not completely keen on Sweet Idea, just think she lacks the class of a couple of these but she has proved me wrong before and im not willing to leave her out this time!
andrew
Guest
Incredibly tough meeting. No best bets or single stand out for me. Some top racing though. Memsie is a cracker, and by default the other 1400m race has come up strong too. Looking forward to my first track visit of the season and a few lemonades in the members bar. Winesong. Was tipped by me with some confidence last start in adl when she ran well but found dehirios just too good over 1200m even with weight swing. Step to 1400m is ideal, and loved the way she pinged the gates last time in those first few strides but then quickly relaxed. I would think she can be very forward in the run here, which I think could be a distinct advantage with several of these to 1400m for first time and on staying preps. She comes into this race 3rd, noting most of her rivals are 1st of 2nd up and she should give a good kick from an on speed position at a backable ew price. Lorna may. Is a smart mare didn’t race as a 2yo, had a light spring 3yo season, but came on strong in autumn as a 3yo and competed well in higher grade than this over autumn, including form which lines up identically with suavito. resumed with a strong run 1st up behind a smart horse who has since won and with that run under its belt and likely to camp in first few from ideal draw on min weight, I lean her way, in a race where I think the 3 faves do stand out. not much between them, but with 2kgs and run of fitness, I have to opt for lorna may over suavito. Are there any ran well 1st up, but this is much stronger race, she is a one paced type of horse and could be cluttered up from inside draw and just not sure if she is as good as the two new season 4yo mares class wise either and/or looking for further now. Pillar of creation. He maps for an absolute perfect run in a race where I think the on-pacers can outkick the classy stayers resuming. Mr make believe will lead from 1, and pillar of creation will sit outside him. stable have confirmed horse goes best when given galloping room, so very surprised if they tick in for a trial. From sitting 2nd outside the leader, he only needs a slow sectional or two round the top turn and he can control the race. whilst moment of change is the known 1400m specialist at present, this guy has won 3 from 4 this track/trip (one miss was trapped wide no cover). With race fitness, an element of class, and finally back up to 1400m, me thinks this is a good race for him to win again before the competition gets too slick. Think he has come up very good value at $9 or so. The query possibly is the weight, noting several of the other race-fit horses claim away from him, but that is a calculated gamble and why is good value. Of the 1st up horses, think bass strait can run well. Flamberge. Factor in the 2kg allowance for mares, and you have effectively a 2kg handicap from top to bottom. Flamberge is the equal highest rated horse in the race, and based on his form last autumn, its easy to see why. He is not star, but a good ‘rung below the best’ sprinter. He twice won at G3 level last pre – precisely this grade, inbetween he managed a couple of 5th to Lankan rupee in the oak plate and Newmarket (beating home some of his rivals here in those runs). He resumed last prep (in lower grade) with a first up win at caul. His caul form, his fresh form, is all very good. natural on-pace horse from inside gate, I think he will give a real sight and kick and in what is otherwise a very tricky race. in a race where I am happy to be against vain queen at short price and hard stride to repeat the dose who is 2nd fave, happy to be on him ew at $11 currently on offer. real surreal. Has the class to knock of gregers for mine. Gregers was good first up, but this is perceptibly tougher. Not saying gregers cant win, but I would rather back real surreal ew at $6/$2.20 than gregers straight out at $2.50, and the 3kg weight swing could be a factor. Id be surprised if a hawkes horse who has won a trial and comes into a group race 1st up doesn’t run well. 1st up last prep was also off a trial win, when ran 4th in strong 3yo fillies Group 2 race which proved strong form race (gypsy diamond, sweet idea, Arabian gold), before just touched out by Thump in another G2, and then running exceptionally well from wide draw in hot G1 coolmore. This race is weaker than all 3 she contested last autumn for mine. Expect to her get a cosy run from ideal gate and surely look the winner at some stage. moment of change. No doubt takes on his toughest test to date. This will be far harder task than his 3 prior G1 WFA wins over the Caul 1400m. Happy to accept this is a mug bet, but he has been so good to me, I cant not back him this track/trip. 1st up run was entirely satisfactory and no doubt this is the race he has been set for this prep. I think he can prove he doesn’t need to lead to win too. I would expect him to let Sweet Idea cross him from out wider and basically sit in 2nd spot outside the leader (messene 3rd the rails with gig and dissent next the running line). He won his first G1 this track/trip sitting outside the leader and can do it again. Im comfortable enough backing him to eyeball and out-do Sweet Idea from the 500m, but accept he could be vulnerable to any number of these ‘quality’ horses who sits back in ruck with cover, does not work and bursts through at the 100m. Moment of Change, just lacks that knock of blow, rather he is death by a thousand cuts. One thing that work in his favour is that it will require an exceptional run from back in field as I do not think gig or dissident can match him and they will be next in the run, and could cause traffic issues for the swoopers, but noting also this duo are unlikely to just drop either. great race, but I will going moment of change on an ew basis. ADL Race 3 – strobes come out of the dehieros and wingsong race, and he got back in a race where first 2 dominated up front. He worked home well and rise in distance can only be in his favour, and gets a few more kgs off dehirios, and deherios could be subject to a bit pressure from the mick price horse too. At double figure odds on an ew basis, its worth a nibble. Race 5 – stokes has a first starter here who creates interest, and it was this time last season that he plucked hucklebuck and éclair big bang from nowhere in ald before winning stakes race in vic, with hussons shout who is well bred, nomed for guineas and has won 2 trials. Horrow draw, but im speculating. Wouldn’t need to be any star to beat the raced brigade here. Sun Sale – race 4 – wraps are big on atmosphere who makes debut, has travelled over with el roca, oliver rides on debut, nomed for all the big races, doubt its going to be a big price, but expected to win
Bondy
Guest
Sweet Idea should go well again she beat the favourites for this race last start Messene and Boban a bit like Scissor Kick in the three yr olds last week,Moment of Change is interesting it was his first defeat at Cfld last start he's a solid chance I think Boban should get the run of the race and pounce it should be a very interesting tactical race ...