At the best of times it is difficult to predict Test results, and based on the performances of the Springboks and Wallabies over the past two weeks, predicting the outcome of that upcoming match has made it even harder.
What is certain though, is that Ewen McKenzie and Heyneke Meyer can both be questioned about their selections, playing players out of position, technical aspects of their strategies, and their loyalty to certain players.
Australia
I started to do some analysis of the All Black versus Wallabies match of the past weekend, and I never got further than the period of Richie McCaw’s yellow card. There was really no need to go any further.
From Aaron Cruden’s restart after the penalty was converted by Kurtley Beale, New Zealand retained possession for most of the ten minutes with one man down. They camped inside the Wallabies’ half, and the Wallabies simply had no answer for the superior tactical play of New Zealand to get out of their half and exploit the one-man advantage.
Their forward pack lacks fire and perhaps even a bit of pride. Kurtley Beale, as talented as he may be, is not the answer at 10. If you consider the success of the Waratahs this past season, sacrificing combinations that have clearly worked for the sake of including one player – Matt Toomua – just hasn’t worked.
South Africa
When attempting to cross the desert in a 4X4, it is necessary to deflate the tires and expand the contact area of your tires in order to overcome the sand. And that is exactly how the Springboks have looked in their last two outings against Argentina. For the sake of being fair, I will ignore the result at Loftus, as the conditions made it difficult to decide where each team was at.
However Salta was a different ball game. The Springboks were beaten in the scrums, dominated in the contact area and had their gaps exploited out wide. There is very little that can be seen as a positive for the Springboks, unless of course you want to give them a Noddy badge for the win.
The question most would ponder though, is what can change in two weeks?
Well, that is the great thing about rugby, even a week is a long time, and an extra week provides McKenzie and Meyer time to reflect, and gives the players time to heal and start fresh faced and reinvigorated.
So where will McKenzie make changes?
I have no doubt, even as an outsider, that the Waratahs’ combination of Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Israel Folau will be instated. The only question remaining is whether McKenzie will move Ashley-Cooper to wing to accommodate someone like Tevita Kuridrani at outside centre.
It is in the forward pack, however, that McKenzie faces his real challenges. Where are the tough guys?
The Aussie pack needs guts and grunt, someone like Jacques Potgieter. Is Will Skelton that man? Perhaps, but how long will he last and how does he influence the line out potential of Australia?
There are mixed feelings in regards to Scott Higginbotham, an industrious player, but too loose. The Wallabies have Michael Hooper, who can be a lot more effective if he had a grunt man in the back row. Wycliff Palu has disappointed, Scott Fardy is seriously under-performing, and that in my view would be McKenzie’s greatest concern.
Heyneke Meyer has some selection issues to make as well. His front row has been beaten, abused and pulverised into tiny bits of beef jerky. Whether fatigue or technique is the issue, I would suggest they get a break.
Fortunately Vicki Matfield is back, and will partner Eben Etzebeth, who is still a bit light on game time. Willem Alberts seems to be on the mend and could join his comrades in Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen in the back row.
But the main conundrum Meyer is facing is his nine and 10 pivots. What should he do?
A halfback going backwards has a much tougher time than one playing behind a winning pack, but Ruan Pienaar is pedantic. There simply is no other way to see him.
The secret of South Africa’s success over the past 18 months or so has been pace. Hitting the rucks at pace, running at pace and never halting the momentum of the wave of Springbok juggernauts. Let’s be real, skills in this back line is limited to Willie le Roux, while the rest are crashball runners. There is no change of pace as they approach the opposition defence, there is no guile, no step and certainly very few offloads in contact.
The secret to Meyer’s army lies in one thing, and one thing only. Speed of execution. Hence the pedantic Ruan Pienaar is not the answer.
I would rather see a limited halfback like Francois Hougaard, who has been playing this style at the Bulls all his life and understands the requirement of quick ball, or the inexperienced Cobus Reinach, with his unpredictability and game-breaking moments, before suffering through another traffic lesson from Pienaar.
Don’t get me wrong, Pienaar has been one of my favourite players for a long time, but he simply does not fit the bill.
At midfield, the Stormers centre pair has to be swopped around. It isn’t a matter of being picky, but rather a matter of common sense. That is how they have been employed at the Stormers the whole season.
The alternative is to move Jan Serfontein to 12, Jean de Villiers to 13 and Damian de Allende to wing, where he has had his most impressive performances.
Final Outcome
I don’t think we will see either of these two teams with a flat performance in Perth, it just isn’t part of their DNA to stay down. Both teams will want to rejuvenate their fans’ belief, and they will want to earn back the respect they have lost.
I think we will be in for a hell of a game, come September 6.
IvanN
Guest
Beast Biz Malherbe Etz PSDT Louw Alberts Vermeulen Reinach Pollard Habana Serfontein Engelbrecht Willie Frans Subs Coenie Strauss Marcelvdm Lood ArnoBotha Hougie Patrick de Allende
IvanN
Guest
IvanN
Guest
Province were impressive in their willingness to run at the opposition - Senatla is worth his weight in gold at the moment, but the work was done upfront first. Boks can be their best again, but we are severely lacking in 3 positions thus far. 3 - obvious 5 - Lood can become a good player, but its hardly fair to throw him into the deep end without sufficient experience around him. With Vic there, Eben will be at his best again as Victor takes the lineout pressures off his shoulders, 7 - Without Willem we have been getting no go forward. Without dominating collisions, we dont get our resets on the front foot and 10 takes the ball standing still, only for the predictable up and under to ensue. Boks scrum will be fixed again this weekend, and you can be sure to see some negating tactics from Aus, it all comes down to will the referee penalise the weaker scrum, or fall for the negatiing tactics. I expect the boks to make a statement in that area, and you know how things go when hte green machine is pumping. Aus backline with all its flair and glory cannot do much with a retreting pack. I think that until Aus find more men like Moore, pocock and Horwill - they will never realize their potential. As SA found last year, you cannnot beat NZ if you are carrying even 1 passenger in that pack - We tried last year with Jannie missing several tackles, and juandre kruger was too soft to add any grunt. then missing Biz for more than half the game negated our pack.
IvanN
Guest
Ya, lets see Israel contain Bryan....
StrYdeR
Roar Rookie
IvanN I think there is truth in what you say. However the only province/franchise that I can think of in SA who get decent crowds in regardless of how their team is doing are WP/Stormers. For everyone else to a greater or lesser degree winning means bigger crowds thus making more money... and all the good things that go along with that. So it probably comes back to the supporters, if they were prepared to pay for entertaining but not necessarily winning rugby then things might be different... but to many of us, rugby is not entertainment... it's war! WP seem to be developing entertaining rugby without sacrificing results at the moment... or maybe they're getting an easy run because the Bulls are just so bad... I will admit my Bulls were better this weekend and may it be the start of something good, but still they have been so poor. I'm sure Harry is on cloud 9 already after the weekend's Loftus result and Perth is still 6 days away, he's going to be bouncing off the walls come Friday.
IvanN
Guest
Sad to see that the Cheetahs had started to develop a fantastically entertaining brand of rugby in 2012, They were teh talk of the competition and won over a lot of admiration from AUS and NZ.... Then, 2013 - it all went backwards again. Coaches are under too much pressure to get results - you start to develop entertaining rugby, at the cost of results - you lose your job.
StrYdeR
Roar Rookie
Well.... if the Boks are off the pace in Perth expect the Wallaby backs to revert to type ;-)
Harry Jones
Expert
Aussie backs used to score tries against SA. It's been a while. But stereotypes live on....
Vic
Guest
Fanie my bro, much as I love the Bokke, somehow this Lancelot and Guinevere thing just doesn't fit - can't we just go with an African story- lions, baboons, witch doctors, whatever, make it as gory as you like, but not this foreign tale man :)
fanie
Guest
Hi Ockert and there is a twist in the tail the king{HM} does not want to use the knights of the Round Table {previous players that have played for the Springboks that have become wise men} to slay this bloody dragon.Ja well theres two things they cannot take away from me and one is imagination Lol.
Chiefy
Guest
Make no mistake, the French forwards were appalling all tour long. This is an understatement as well.
Ball'n'all
Guest
The Aus scrum was pretty decent except when Simmons was off the field.
StrYdeR
Roar Rookie
May it never be said you lack imagination... Springboks; big, brutal, strong, fast, maulers, brawlers and dragon slayers... :-)
fanie
Guest
StrY de RZA sometimes as a fanatical rugby lover frustrations boils over into harsh words.Do i want our beloved team to succeed yes do you want the Boks to succeed yes.So our cause is one and the same.You will notice when it comes to the national team there is no provincialism and i regard a team effort as the ultimate.I also know that if the V8 up front does not function the team as a whole suffers.So to really describe to you how i feel this is what happened. Merlin waved his wooden stick{Warren Gatland} he cursed us with a dragon{Wales} Gweneviere{The Trophy} is patiently waiting for us so we need Sir Lancelot to slay this Bloody dragon.A lot of Lancelots have been used but they are falling short of getting rid of this curse and the slaying of the dragon.I believe there is a problem and all problems can be solved regardless of the difficulty.We have a rich talent in Springbok rugby players that have been there and done it so we do not want to see our scrum being humiliated we want closure on the scrum issues and the only way we will get closure is by using our collective power and wise men to slay this dragon.
StrYdeRZA
Guest
Thanks for he reply Vic. Phew... so I'm not just seeing things then ;-) I've watched a couple of Heineken matches where RP has played head and shoulders above the others around him, he is very talented but I think Super Rugby is a step up in speed and that exposes him when he plays for the Boks, but I still believe with the World Cup being played in England HM is making the right decision to stick with RP, if the Boks make it to the knock out stages and they get a mud bath game, RP and Flouw are going to be invaluable!
Vic
Guest
Agree with you on Ruan. Think he has a lot of talent, but it must be really difficult to play his best with the constant criticism of a nation on his shoulders. The fact that he's done well in Europe might have improved his confidence.
MK
Guest
Why don't the aussies not producing players like Garrick Morgan or Illie Tabua or Willie O people with grunt guys who put fear into opposing players like edzebeth,burger,potgieter,bakkies,guyswho like the physical stuff and not pu???? .
Digby
Roar Guru
Rob, nail, head! Would love more quality scrum focus for sure!
StrYdeRZA
Guest
Am I the only person around here who thinks Ruan has improved a lot this year? Decision making can still be frustratingly slow, and particularly if he goes for the box kick it is a bit obvious, but he has been much better at making sure he is protected before going for a box kick so it's not the huge liability it was, and his passing is much crisper? ... maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see...
StrYdeRZA
Guest
LMAO....