Lay it all on the line with your AFL finals predictions

With the finals fast approaching, let’s throw the cat among the pigeons. How will the eight play out?

Who will play in week one? Who will be eliminated? And who will go straight to the preliminaries?

What do the semis look like and who will make it through?

Let’s start with Friday’s clash between Hawthorn and Collingwood. The poor old Pies are severely marred by injuries and it would take a miracle for Eddie’s beloved to beat the Hawks. I also predict the Hawks should win by more than 30 and this will lock away a top-two spot.

For many weeks I have said Carlton could surprise Essendon and upset their finals hopes, but the win over West Coast cemented them in the eight and I think Carlton’s season ended well before the bounce of the Port Adelaide game.

The first of the crunch games to determine an important ladder position comes in the shape of Fremantle and Port Adelaide. I can’t wait for this one. There is so much riding on it for both clubs.

The chance to snatch fourth from the other and the opportunity to play Sydney in week one and secure a home prelim. Or, the real possibility of finishing fifth and for either team, hosting a home derby or showdown. My head says Freo but my heart says Port. I’ll be tipping Freo.

Then comes Sydney and Richmond. Boy, will Richmond be playing out of their skin. If not for Freo and Port, this would be game of the round. One side assured a home final, the other trying to prove their worth.

It could be too little to late for the Tigers, as the Swans will be, for the most part, be almost back to full strength. I think the Swans will keep on their winning ways, but as a Tiger in my junior playing days, I’d love to hear Tigerland ring out after the siren.

North Melbourne will easily account for the hapless Demons. Enough said. Likewise, Geelong will account for Brisbane, even though the Lions are finishing off the season in reasonably good fashion.

The Gold Coast have the ability to rain on West Coasts parade and given the game is at Metricon, this could be interesting. West Coast have had opportunities to consolidate a top eight spot, like that against Essendon, and there is real danger this could go the same way. For the purpose of this exercise, I am tipping the Eagles.

Adelaide will take care of St Kilda and only percentage will determine their wooden spoon fate.

The final game does not have a bearing on any important ladder positions and I think the Western Bulldogs will finish with a win over GWS.

My ladder looks like this:
Sydney 72
Hawthorn 68
Geelong 68
Fremantle 64
Port Adelaide 56
North Melbourne 56
Essendon 52
West Coast 44
Adelaide 44
Richmond 44
Collingwood 44
Gold Coast 40
Bulldogs 32
Carlton 28
Lions 28
GWS 20
Melbourne 16
St Kilda 16

So week one of the finals sees Sydney take on Freo at ANZ. This will be a cracker. Both sides, you would expect, will be back to full strength. I’m tipping the Swans in a close one.

I think Freo might be a bit weary after this weeks hit out and I am not sure that a defence, with an underdone Luke McPharlin, will be able to contain the Swans forwards. Yes they have other class defenders, but I think they will be stretched.

Hawthorn will take on Geelong and I haven’t seen anything to convince me that Geelong can beat them. Their second half last weekend was ordinary and unless they were foxIng, the Hawks would go in with a fair amount of confidence. The Hawks should go straight through to the other preliminary final.

Port Adelaide will account for West Coast without too many problems.

The North Melbourne and Essendon game should provide a more even contest. I think the Bombers will have a lot to prove, given their off-field pressures, and they’ll sneak over the line in a close one.

Week two will see Fremantle take on Port Adelaide again. My feeling is Port will upset the Purple Army and end their season here. It’ll be a tough slog coming back from Sydney to take on a Port side that by now, should be back to the earlier season form. The will make it through to a preliminary with the Hawks.

The other semi sees Geelong host Essendon. This will be a very interesting semi. Geelong have enjoyed a good run against the Bombers except for a four-point loss in Round 15, 2011. They have only met in finals three times since the early 80s and two of those were the history making quarter final and prelims of 1989. I think the Cats experience will see them through to a Prelim against the Swans.

In week three Sydney take on Geelong at ANZ. The last time they met the Swans played possibly their best football of the season and embarrassed the Cats. The bigger ground will suit the Cats better than the SCG and of the three games they have played at ANZ, the Cats have won them all.

This time however the Swans will be primed and will head through to the grand final.

On the other side of the ledger, Port Adelaide’s run will come to an end against Hawthorn. It will have been a demanding season ending in a home final, a trip to Patersons and then a journey to meet the experienced finals campaigners in the Hawks. The rematch we thought we might see 2013, now all set for 2014, as the Hawks take care of Port.

On grand final day, Sydney will take on Hawthorn in a capacity crowd epic blockbuster. This time we will see a lot of goals, much like ’89. The Hawks will be too good on the day. Buddy Franklin will kick seven in a losing side and win the Norm Smith.

Go on, give it a try. You know you want to.