Manly’s stunning comeback to beat Penrith yesterday has saved their season. Whether that translates into a premiership remains to be seen, but at least they’ve got the kick-start their campaign desperately needed.
Had the Sea Eagles not won yesterday – and it is still amazing they got out of the jam they were in, first trailing 24-12 with twenty minutes to go and then 25-18 with seven minutes left – they would have been in an awful space.
Their form-line over the last four rounds would have read a loss to South Sydney (23-4), a narrow win over battling Gold Coast (15-12), a loss to Parramatta (22-12) and a loss by whatever score it ended up against the Panthers.
They would have been sitting third on the competition table, instead of the first place they do inhabit, with a massive game away from home in the final round against North Queensland.
They’re still facing that massive game, but they’ll go to Townsville feeling a whole lot better about themselves and knowing that even if they lose they can’t finish worse than second on the ladder.
That, of course, means that if they win in the first week of the finals they’ll go straight through to week three, and be only one more win away from a place in the grand final. Under those circumstances, with the pressure off a bit, I expect Manly to settle back into a groove and play much more like we know they can against North Queensland.
It’s going to be very difficult for them to win, particularly since the currently seventh-placed Cowboys could be playing for a top-four spot, but Manly should be very competitive.
North Queensland are heavily favoured to beat Cronulla in the final game of Round 25 in Townsville tonight and move to fifth.
If Manly win, it will be a great result for them. If they don’t win, but they take a high-quality game right down to the wire, they can still enter the finals with confidence.
But if the Panthers had capitalised on their 12-point lead from midway through the second half and won comfortably, who knows what sort of state the Sea Eagles would have been in heading for Round 26.
I watched Manly’s post-match media conference on video and I liked the way both coach Geoff Toovey and captain Jamie Lyon were talking.
They know the Sea Eagles have got to get better and play the sort of football they did in the last 20 minutes for closer to 80, but they were relaxed and happy.
Manly escaped from jail against Penrith, and the Panthers are probably still wondering today how that one got away, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. What looks like a sure win to one team can be stolen when the other team suddenly decides they want it more. The Sea Eagles were that team yesterday. Now they have to show they can go on with the job.
Jamie Buhrer’s season-ending knee injury, sustained against the Panthers, is a significant blow. Manly would love to have both him and Glenn Stewart in their 17 for the finals, but have neither.
At least they got Dunamis Lui back from injury yesterday. Lui will add a bit of mongrel and you can’t have enough of that going into the big, end-of-season games.
Injuries are always important, but this competition is so tight it feels like they are going to have more influence than ever on the finals series. If you’re following a very good team and the vast majority of their players are healthy, they might be in the box seat.
It is going to be a fascinating final round, with six of the eight games set to have a bearing on the top eight.
Look at currently fifth-placed Melbourne, for instance. They play eighth-placed Brisbane at AAMI Park on Friday. A win could see them finish in the top four, but a loss could see them miss the eight altogether.
Sixth-placed Canterbury and the Broncos are obviously both on shaky ground as well.
The Bulldogs, who play Gold Coast at CBUS Super Stadium on Sunday, could actually still finish in the top four, but would need big help not only from other results, but also in the points for-and-against department.
The Cowboys, with their hugely positive differential, will be safe in the top eight if they win tonight.
The ninth-placed Warriors and tenth-placed Parramatta are both still alive in the battle for places in the finals.
Had the Panthers hung on to win yesterday, Souths and Sydney Roosters would have been playing off for the minor premiership at Allianz Stadium on Thursday.
Whichever teams wins that clash can still take the minor premiership – if the Sea Eagles lose – but only one team out of the Rabbitohs and Roosters can finish in the top two.
A Penrith win yesterday would have meant it was possible for Souths and the Roosters to both finish in the top two regardless of which team won their clash.
It would have also guaranteed the Panthers a place in the top four, but instead they still have Melbourne – and probably the Cowboys as well, after tonight – breathing down their necks.
If the Storm beat the Broncos, Penrith will have to beat the Warriors at Sportingbet Stadium on Sunday to finish in the top four.
The game that keeps giving has outdone itself this time.
Brendan
Guest
Dont try and defend your thug. He deserved to be rubbed out and the league world knows it
The spectator
Guest
It's good to see kb on the offensive, remember last time! Keep it up kb.
The spectator
Guest
Maybe someone should check how Moylan got mom! One line break and a field goal in a losing side IMO is bs when his opposite number clearly took the game by the scruff of the neck and won the game!,
Parrafan
Guest
WE can hope Rich. That's what my predictor says but then again it's all up in the air and we will only know by late Sunday.
eagleJack
Guest
I think you'll find the majority of tacklers hit the attacker with the point of their shoulder! Dear oh dear.
john badseed
Guest
Gone Troppo.
john badseed
Guest
How's easts record against top 4 teams?
john badseed
Guest
Campbelltown or 1-300?
bearfax
Guest
Has happened Glenn and yes my initial feelings would be to bag the ref even go over and flog them or rant and rave about being robbedt etc etc. But that's the advantage of cooling off a little and have a think about it. Point I always come back to is that if Manly lost because of a questionable decision, I would have to say that that is how the game goes and that does not detract from the performance of the opposition who have beaten them and deserve praise. If you read my entries on Roar you will consistently see me commending the opposition and indicating that though a poor decision has been made, that is just the way the game goes....no one intentionally set out to deny a team winning. It was just interpreted that way. I dont go along with bagging refs too much because the game is so fast and they are not in a position to see things that you as a person on the hill or a TV audience see..and even then there can be mixed views. You just have to accept the good with the bad. But yes it is very easy to lose it immediately after a match and say things that on reflection were not seeing things in perspective. No I am not being saintly here, just logical...it happens get over it. Your team will get the 50/50 calls sometimes and other times not. Its just how it is. Seeking blame is sad because it means that was what was most important and not the game.
Brendan
Guest
Thats rubbish.. He didnt wrap his arms at all. He lined him up and hit him with the point of his shoulder. Matai has an appaling judiciary record as well. He should have gone for at least 3 weeks
eagleJack
Guest
Are you saying Manly's final try was not a try?
Glenn
Guest
bearfax, I would be interested to see if your team was disallowed in the final seconds and was an obviously questionable decision and video ref was no called on , would you just talk on how good the game was
Kingcowboy
Guest
Bearfax I could not agree more. Just as an exercise, i would find it interesting to get ten members of the media to sit in different rooms and judge on ten video referee decisions on live games. I would be interested to see the end result.
bearfax
Guest
I hear whinging consistently Wascally, including from Manly and Souths. Its rare to hear a losing coach not whinge about some aspect of the game and interpretation of the rules and quite frankly it gets very boring and not in the spirit of the game which is trying hard to show a positive slant on the game. Too often I watch a top game and then have to put up with a coach or player whinging instead of commending the opposition and saying what a great game it was. No wonder League PR to the World is so poor. Some times I wonder if it would be better not to have coaches and players being questioned immediately following a game. Things are said that at times are not well considered and the news hounds love to then blow the story up. We should be talking about how good the game was, not whether the ref missed a forward pass or not.
Wascally Wabbit
Guest
Interesting, not one reply addressed the culture of Manly whinging.
Johnk
Guest
So true bearfax
NSWelshman
Guest
Womanly? Really? Somehow it appears to me that your Cowgirls are exactly that GIRLS! I agree with you on a cricket score but it definitely won't be against Manly! Dads Army is another one of your feminine jokes I think. The Manly squad....................... Stewart 29 Taufua 23 Lyon 32 Mata 30 Hiku 22 Foran 23 DCE 24 Buhrer 24 Symonds 24 Watmough 31 Lawrence 29 Ballin 30 Starling 24 JSL 24 Hasson 22 Lui 24 Horo 28 JLJ 23 Blair 22 Gutherson 20 Andrews 24 Trbo 20 Chee Kam 22 Ligi Sao 22 Hodges 21 Satini 21 Average age 26! WOW you can give me that dads army any day mate!
bearfax
Guest
It should also be noted that Penrith are using Manly's playing style to improve their play. That's been acknowledged by the experts, so Penrith are relying on what they've learned from the Sea Eagles nest to become truly competitive again. Good on them and no doubt it will lead to much success in future. Of course its helpful to have two ex Manly players there who learned the style and winning culture in Kite and Whare. But more importantly they are relying on a coach who learned his coaching skills from a master in Bob Fulton. Cleary is a Manly junior from Beacon Hill who played a lot of first grade at Manly in 1992-3 before moving to North Sydney, Sydney City and then Auckland. Though Cleary didnt play directly under Fulton's tutorage, that great Manly player and coach had helped instill in Manly a continuance of that winning culture during the preceding decade, that Cleary took with him and is now using at Penrith. Thank the RL gods that Manly had produced such a fine coach so Penrith can maybe relive its halcyon days. Criticise Manly's play and you are criticising Penrith's style..
Manly Man
Guest
22-6 (Two intercept tries). Your a funny funny guy I guess your sick of manly winning ay. Jealously breeds hatred old friend. Come to the light join us and be part of success
Manly Man
Guest
Ah Paul I sense a lot of hatred for the real pride of the league. Only team to make the finals for the last ten years. 7 years 4 grandfinals 2 premierships, rorted of two and on the way to winning another. Who do you follow ?