September 1 means two things, the start of Spring, and the beginning of the AFL finals, which morphs everyone and anyone into an expert on who will make the grand final, and who will triumph.
I am part of that throng, and here are my thoughts on the eight teams that have a chance at glory.
Sydney Swans
I see it as Sydney’s flag to lose. They have the best list of all the contenders and are supported by a near perfect run into the finals. Their strengths revolve around an exceptional midfield, an attack that can make nightmares come true and an underrated defence. Within their group, there is an unshakeable belief fuelled by a relentless desire for success. They have many proven big game performers and will take a power of beating this year.
Key Man: Lance Franklin. It would not surprise me to see Buddy run amok in this finals series.
Verdict: My favourites for the premiership.
Hawthorn Hawks
There is little doubt that the Hawks have the team to win the flag, and seal back-to-back premierships. They have class on every line, made more threatening by the tactics of the best coach in the game, Alastair Clarkson. Their main strength is their versatility which confuses the opposition and makes match-ups so hard to plan for. Of concern going into the finals is the injury to Cyril Rioli, which robs the team of real x-factor, as well as leaving them vulnerable on the outside.
Key Man: Hawks’ defence. Brian Lake, Josh Gibson and Ben Stratton have missed a combined 34 games this season and are the pillars of the defence. Now that they’re all fit they could prove decisive.
Verdict: Will make the grand final, but fall to Sydney.
Geelong Cats
The Cats are a team that always inspire doubt, but then punish you for this by getting it done when it most matters. Their strength revolves around their many on-field generals, who have been there and done that, and always lift when it matters. Their defence, marshalled by the vastly underrated Harry Taylor, is the team’s strength with its x-factor being their strength on the outside.
Jets like Steven Motlop, Allen Christensen and Mitch Duncan can cut teams to ribbons with their combination of line-breaking ability and skill. The main concern for the Cats is the reliance on Tom Hawkins for their goals. He kicked 62 for the season. If he is shut down, there is no other trusted big forward to fall back on with the team relying on small and mid-sized forwards, or midfielders to kick a winning score. This rarely cuts it in finals.
Key Man: Steven Motlop. The names of Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins and Steven Johnson are easy to list, but Motlop, with his magical skills, takes Geelong to another level.
Verdict: Their journey ends in the preliminary final.
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers could gatecrash these finals as they’re starting to fire on all cylinders. They are faced with a virtual mission impossible in the first week, playing Sydney away, but overcame a similar challenge last year, and triumphed. If they can do the same this year it will give them a week off, with a home preliminary final in Perth and a huge chance of winning the flag.
Their strengths lie in their midfield, which is arguably the best in the game, supported by a defensive game plan that suffocates the life out of oppositions. If their attack can give support to evergreen spearhead Matthew Pavlich, then the premiership cup heading west is a very real possibility.
Key Man: Luke McPharlin. The fitness of their back line general could be the difference between them threatening, or seriously challenging.
Verdict: If Mcpharlin was fit, I would be inclined to tip the Dockers to beat Sydney this week, and playoff for the flag after winning a home preliminary final. But his absence leaves a hole too big to fill against the Sydney attack, meaning they will lose this week.
Port Adelaide
The Power’s missed their chance to steal fourth place, and with it a crack at Sydney, after losing to Fremantle in the last round. One can see them winning easily in week one, at home against the Tigers, but being long odds to beat the loser of the Sydney versus Fremantle clash away from home in week two.
Verdict: Out in week two.
Essendon Bombers
The Dons are a team that are very strong in their top 10 players, but the quality of the rest of their 22 drops away alarmingly.
Verdict: North will knock them out in week one.
North Melbourne
The AFL’s Jekyll and Hyde team, with their best being exquisite, but their bad being horrid.
Verdict: I can see them beating Essendon, but being ousted in the second week.
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers enjoyed a fairytale run to make the finals, but, as in all fairytales, there is a big bad meanie.
Verdict: Port Adelaide will play that role, smashing them in the first week.
Don Freo
Guest
You sound like Michael Clarke
Don Freo
Guest
Sandi is the king of contested marks. Have you not been watching?
Don Freo
Guest
Got the Goodes isn't bad.
Balthazar
Guest
9 goals without answer mainly in the 3rd suggests otherwise. Did the same to the Hawks in the 3rd 2 weeks earlier I recall
big dallo
Guest
Freo has no running game. Give it up balthabizaare freo are about to go out in straight sets.
Balthazar
Guest
What if Sydney allows Freo to get its running game on? Port did, til the 6 day break took its toll
Balthazar
Guest
Ok my apologies. Maybe you didnt notice I was just kidding and yes it was a straw man argument. Assumed you knew that. May have to resort to emoticons, sadly
Balthazar
Guest
Aggressive barracking is fine by me. But just no
Michael huston
Guest
I think with Freo and Sydney, it will purely be a matter of who can bring their best. We've seen Sydneys best (Q1 vs Essendon, the entire Geelong game, Q3 vs Carlton, Q1 vs Bulldogs) and we've seen Freos best (Q3 vs Port, Q3 vs Hawks, the entire Collingwood game). I can't say whose going to bring their best. If Freo allow Sydney to get their running game on, they'll find themselves 40 points down in one quarter. If Sydney can't take Freo's pressure, they'll find themselves behind. Should be interesting. Both teams at their best are capable of doing different things.
Mark
Guest
Balt, Freo will lose by 50 and Sandliands will break an arm. How's that for aggressive?
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Interesting that you can talk about how your side has improved against other teams but I can't provide you with insight as to why Pyke and the Swans work against all teams. If the only game we have played this year is irrelevant (probably because you lost, using your scenario of Sandilands dominating the ruck), then conversation over. Good luck Saturday and hopefully it is a cracker.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
I'll leave the aggressive stuff to you Balt, after all that's how you started things off in a previous thread with me. I'm just pointing out the obvious and trying to give some collective unbiased thoughts on game plans and how they are going to potential pan out in the finals.
geoff
Guest
Apeness has to be the best name in the afl.
Balthazar
Guest
Thanks for the critique. You seem to become quite aggressive when people disagree with you so I will leave you to it
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
No I'm trying to address your rinse and repeat comment and highlight your apparent lack of understanding of how AFL football works. That's all. I can appreciate your comments about how you think the Dockers are going to win. I really can, despite not agreeing one bit with them. However, those other comments just make no sense what so ever and shows you have very little understanding of how contested and uncontested football plays out on a football pitch. You might want to read my analysis further up of who I think is going to win also Balt. Since I mentioned I'm a Catties fan I don't see too much bias there in that appraisal. Perhaps it might help if you do the same thing?
Balthazar
Guest
My last response was to Peter. Rick, I think you can assume by the reference to the step ladder (surely not allowed in play) that I was being a touch tongue in cheek. I am pretty sure Peter realises this. I haven't played AFL at a high level but I have played other sports competitively. I am not going through your whole email because you and I simply do not see the game in the same way and you have a not-so-hidden bias against Freo which impacts your analysis. What I would say though is that, if you do resort to statistics, you would see that Freo too doesn't play a particularly high possession game and is highly reliant on turn overs (with perceived pressure, mind you, as they are not a particularly high tackling team) and efficiency in scoring. They rarely win the inside 50 count for example. My comments were initially addressing kick outs to relieve defensive pressure - Freo sets up a lot of its attack from its defensive half - and the rest was me amusing myself
Balthazar
Guest
With respect, your comment doesn't address my point. Your record against other sides is irrelevant as - last time I looked - Sandi and Clarke only play for us. And I don't have to analyse both sides because, on my argument, their output will not be neutralised. As Ross loves saying "the past is irrelevant". We've only stepped up a few gears with the return of Walters and the other things mentioned ad nauseum already. Look at the scores Freo has been kicking post round 20 compared to the remainder of the season. And it's not like we've been playing easier opponents in the last 3 weeks. We haven't had the charmed fixture that the Swans were presented with this year.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Balt I can tell you probably have not played Aussie Rules at a high level. Not that I have played at AFL level myself, but I have player 89 games for the Port Adelaide Magpies at SANFL level before moving to Melbourne to study. Sandilands has been winning the rucking contest for years, but that doesn't automatically mean his mid fielders get the ball. I was a ruck rover and I can tell you when you know your ruckman is out gunned you learn to play to patterns. The Swans do this as good as anyone because they HAVE had to due to Pykes inability to contest against the very best rucks. Sure it's not ideal, but you make it sound like it's a lay down misere when ever the ball goes to Sandi and he is going to have it his way all the time. It just doesn't work like that and if it did then Sandilands would be the greatest Ruckman in the history of the game, but he isn't. Gerard Healy explained it probably the best 'On the Coach' a few months back on Fox. If you really understand the intricacies of the game you will see that Hawthorn do this best. They actually set up a perimeter of about 30 metres from the ball and quite often let the inside players get the ball. They then suffocate the opposition by not allowing them to use their outside running players, thus resulting in a turn over and open play. You may also notice Pendlebury and Swan quite often get 30 plus possessions against the Hawks, but they are not that effective and is one of the reasons the Pies just can't beat the Hawks. Again Heally pointed this out to Dunstall and Dunstall replied by saying it doesn't bother the Hawks. It's what the player does with the ball after they get it that counts and is absolute genius from Clarko if you ask me. I was fascinated with the break down of this by Dunstall who has a brilliant football mind in my opinion. It made perfect sense and when you watch it at a game live you can see it. The Cats to a lesser extent do this and love open play football, especially through the corridor, but are getting too hurt themselves on the turn over. The same thing is going to happen to Freo. The Swans though don't deploy this tactic as much, but if they start losing the inside contested ball they will block the outside running power of the Dockers as best they can and get into a more free flowing open game style. Of course the Dockers will try to counter this, which is why it is going to be a fascinating contest. Just don't assume for second that because Sandi is 7 feet tall he is automatically going to be able to mark a ball, cause a stoppage the Dockers are going to win and then rinse and repeat. If that was true then the Dockers would have finished top and most likely would be the reigning premiers also...
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
What you are saying would resonate if the Swans were 4-18 like St Kilda, but they are 17-5 with a ruckmen that isn't winning the ruck. I understand what you are saying but you have to analyse both sides. The Swans game plan isn't exactly built around winning ruck contests...... Hate to harp on it, but for all the improvement you speak of, we were 1-3 at the time, and you guys were 3-1. We won 16 more, you won 13 more. I find it intriguing, it's going to be a cracker.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
If you take the staging out of it, Adam Goodes is doing just what he needs to each week. There is not a coach on the planet that would sit in the box at the start of the game, and not think "where is Goodesy lining up?". His versatility at 34 means he is still lining up in the middle. His pace, as you say Don, is still there, maybe a yard slower. Roughhead of the Bulldogs couldn't get near him last week in a dash to the goals. He is still a rolls royce. He is still leading up and taking marks on the wing. He is still getting off the ground in contests. He is still one of the most dangerous crumbers week in week out, chipping in for over a goal a game. Your comments suggest you don't watch him every week, which is understandable. Goodes is as important to Sydney as Pavlich is to Fremantle.