Geelong facing swift finals exit

Geelong is in serious danger of bowing out of the 2014 finals in straight sets tonight. The Cats have two major issues ahead of their knockout final against North Melbourne: their continued fadeouts and a ruck mismatch.

The ruck has been a weakness for Geelong since the retirement of finals specialist Brad Ottens three years ago.

By contrast, it is a significant strength for North, who boast one of the most underrated players in the competition in big man Todd Goldstein.

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The 201-centimetre player has again been pivotal for North this season, with his supreme ruck work and mobility around the ground.

Goldstein is fourth in the AFL this season for total hit-outs, averaging 35 per match. Unlike some ruckmen, he is not out of the game when the ball hits the ground and is more than prepared to not only work hard for possessions but also put on defensive pressure.

He has averaged 12 touches, 5 tackles and 3 clearances a game to complement his mountain of hit outs.

Goldstein underlined his value last week during North’s come-from-behind victory over Essendon in the elimination final at the MCG. He was faced with the huge task of countering the Bombers’ Paddy Ryder, who was having a career-best season. Goldstein eclipsed Ryder in the ruck, with 39 hit outs to 19, and worked manfully to keep up with him around the ground, earning 11 possessions and 7 tackles.

This week he will come up against a Cats line-up with a decimated ruck unit. Former North big man Hamish McIntosh has been ruled out of the final due to knee soreness. Geelong were already without ruckmen Dawson Simpson and Nathan Vardy due to season-ending injuries. That will leave Mark Blicavs in a decided mismatch with Goldstein.

It is hard not to see the big Roo completely controlling the stoppages against his smaller, less accomplished opponent.

Blicavs is renowned for his aerobic capacity, having been a middle-distance runner, and is coming off an impressive outing against Hawthorn last week when he collected 20 touches and 14 hit outs.

While he may stretch Goldstein around the ground, he is not particularly damaging with his possessions and rarely hits the scoreboard.

He certainly is not a frontline ruckman, though, and Goldstein is extremely clever with his tapwork. As a result, the Cats’ midfielders could well be at a big disadvantage throughout the contest.

Their coaches will have to design a strategy to try to quell Goldstein’s impact at the stoppages. The Geelong think tank will also be preoccupied with trying to address the side’s all-too-common second half fadeouts.

Time and again this season the Cats have started games brightly before wilting as the game wears on. This was again evident last week as a deadlocked game at half-time turned into an easy 36-point win for Hawthorn.

North Melbourne, meanwhile, have made a habit of finishing games strongly this season. They highlighted against Essendon that they have the capacity to will themselves to victory from positions of weakness late in games.

North were 33 points down early in the third term but completed a stunning 45-point turnaround to win by two goals.

During a television interview after that match, veteran North forward Drew Petrie said they had been mindful of their good record late in games while staging the comeback.

Petrie noted that North had been second in the competition for scoring in final quarters, while Essendon had been one of the worst sides in the league in this regard.

North will no doubt feel that against Geelong, even if they trail by four to five goals in the third quarter, they will remain a chance of victory.

The Cats, of course, are a wonderfully-resilient and proud club with a phenomenal record over the past eight seasons. They remain capable of taking over a game and scoring in bursts.

North, meanwhile, have been so unpredictable this season that, despite their expected ruck advantage and superior record of finishing out games, it is impossible to know what they will serve up.

Tonight’s final is shaping as a terrifically even contest. But I’d have to tip North to eke out a win.