Makybe Diva Stakes preview

Spring is here and when it comes to Melbourne that means one thing… Group l racing at Flemington. And that begins this Saturday with the Makybe Diva Stakes day.

The feature race on the card is the $400,000 Group l Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), named in honour of the best staying mare we will ever see. She is the only horse to have won three Melbourne Cups and the only horse in history to win at four Melbourne Cup carnivals.

The race itself has been a great platform leading into the better races, and as such, the race is saved for good horses. Northerly, Weekend Hussler and Shocking are most notable recent winners.

The top pick in betting is Dissident thanks to his dominant win in the Memsie Stakes (1400m) on August 30, winning by over two lengths and running smart time. Five of his ten rivals that run here finished behind him in that race, but as we know Flemington and Caulfield are two completely different beasts. I think he could be a risk at the price, given that it is his first time at ‘Headquarters’ and he won’t get the perfect run he got first up.

Boban caught the eye of everyone with his slashing fourth in the Missile Stakes (1200m) on August 9, then ran in the Memsie and had no luck, getting stuck three wide with no cover. When he doesn’t have something in front of him he tends to pull his head off and have nothing left for the straight.

Despite that, he loomed and sprinted for about 100 metres, but the tough run told just late and he ground way away for fifth to Dissident. He won the Emirates over the identical path last year and will appreciate the bigger surroundings. If he gets cover and a drag into the race, it’ll take a pretty good effort from his rivals to hold off his turn of foot.

Many, including those on The Roar, were quick to pot Puissance De Lune after his first up failure in the P.B. Lawrence, but you have to remember he was three wide with no cover and was first up from the Cox Plate and coming back from a tendon. He then bounced back to his best form with a closing third in the Memsie after getting the suck run behind the three on speed runners. He saves his best for Flemington and will take some beating, even more so if there is any give in the ground.

Messene was very good in the Missile behind Sweet Idea, then he went to the Memsie and looked all at sea around Caulfield and was a beaten horse on the turn. Can the loss be put down to the fact he was another victim of a Sydney horse failing at their Caulfield? We will learn more after this weekend. Ability wise, he is very good, but that last effort has turned me off a touch.

Spillway looked very sharp in recent jumpouts at Flemington and brought that on race day with a narrow second in the P.B Lawrence Stakes (1400m) to Star Rolling on August 16. He had the gun run behind the speed and looked the winner 100 metres, but Star Rolling packed one too many punches. Big test here against some quality animals, but he himself is good quality also, so he can’t be left out.

One roughie to look out for is Sertorious. He was excellent in the Memsie, really surging the last 100 metres, and ran through the line as well as I’ve seen for a while. I think whatever he runs in over 2000 metres and beyond he’ll be ultra competitive in, but he is another who races quite well at Flemington and will relish the rise to 1600 metres. You know he’ll be very strong at the end.

Selections
Boban (3) on top, to beat Puissance De Lune (6) and chuck in Sertorious (5).

Other key races on the program start off with the $200,000 Group ll Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m) for the mares. The race looks down to four genuine winning chances, headed by Gregers, who has done nothing wrong in two runs this time in, both resulting in wins.

She looked in trouble last time out at Caulfield, but surged late and proved too good in the last little bit. Big query on her at 1400 metres, and I think she’ll be better with some cover this time in order to run the journey. If she runs the distance out, she’ll go close.

Commanding Jewel got the big pass mark when she savaged the line late near the fence when third to Gregers at Caulfield. She was given a gun ride to win this race last year, and in what looked to be a strong edition. Goes up two kilograms from that win, but looks much stronger and imposing now, along with the fact she has a stack of upside.

Based on the way she trialled, I thought this could be the best prep Dear Demi produces, and she certainly didn’t deter that with her outstanding fifth to Gregers at Caulfield. She had no right to finish off the way she did given the race was set up for those on the speed, but she really let down hard and was beautiful through the line. Looking for further, but her class will carry her a long way.

The other winning chance is Solicit, who has her first run as a four-year-old mare, and she looks on target this Spring thanks to a recent jumpout placing where she hit the line with purpose. She has good tactical speed and can sit close to the speed, and will be strong at the end of 1400 metres.

Selections
Gregers (3) the one to beat, ahead of Commanding Jewel (1) and Dear Demi (2).

The Danehill Stakes (1400m) has been a great kick off point for three-year-olds in recent years, and is usually won by one of the more dominant gallopers – Black Caviar in 2009, Sepoy in 2011 and Snitzerland in 2012.

Brazen Beau was one of the better youngsters during the latter part of the Autumn and into the Winter. He finished off his campaign with a fighting second to Almalad in the JJ Atkins after seemingly having the race won 300 metres out. The eventual winner packed plenty under pressure and just outgunned him late, by I think Brazen Beau is a sprinter, hence why he is resuming here to get a look at the track and distance in readiness for the Coolmore Stud. Trials have been sharp and Pumper has made the trip from Sydney to steer.

Get The Nod was ultra impressive when he resumed with a thumping win in the Vain Stakes, made even more dominant by the fact he sat wide all the way with no cover. Barrier one down the Flemington straight is the concern because it can be a major disadvantage, but he is a very, very good horse who has proven he can overcome adversity and still beat his rivals.

Big, big watch on the star filly from Adelaide, Go Indy Go. She was outstanding in the Autumn and proved she was one of the best youngsters going with an outstanding triumph in the Champagne Stakes during the Championships at Randwick. Hasn’t trialled publicly in preparation for this, but the class and the fact she’ll be strong at the end of 1200 metres brings her right into the mix.

Selections
Brazen Beau (2) in a ripping race, to beat Get The Nod (3) and Go Indy Go (7).

The final key race to look at is the Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m). This has also been a good horses race, with the likes of Bon Hoffa, Doubtful Jack and We’re Gonna Rock saluting. 2013 winner Speediness is attempting back-to-back and has looked quite good in recent Caulfield jumpouts, so a fresh forward showing wouldn’t surprise.

El Roca has had a few hiccups this Spring, with little niggles here and there, but he looks over them based on how sharp he looked in a recent jumpout here, winning and winning with plenty in reserve. He comfortably beat Dissident first up last time in and both of these horses have gone on to bigger and better things, so that form reads pretty well here, along with the fact he is drawn around early speed, so he should get the beaut sit.

The old warrior Temple Of Boom has to go in as a serious threat here. At the start of the Autumn he was just okay without being anything great, but a change of riding tactics saw sharp improvement. He caused a boil-over in the Victory before running three ripping races at Group l level. Another who hasn’t trialled publicly, but he loves the straight six and Tegan Harrison makes the trek from Brisbane to ride.

Flamberge was given a gun ride by Vlad Duric to win first up at Caulfield in Theshark.com.au Stakes, beating home a pretty good field. His form from the Autumn was excellent, with a couple of fifths to Lankan Rupee at Group l level. Considering that, he looks very well placed here, especially with the run under his belt.

Selections
There are a host of other chances, but I’ll stick with El Roca (5), ahead of Temple Of Boom (2) and Flamberge (3).