It is a very exciting time in world rugby, with a number of big events on the horizon.
We have the rest of the Rugby Championship to be played out, the upcoming spring tour of Europe and the Six Nations tournament before we hit the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England next September.
While many Australians would be more excited about winning back the Bledisloe than anything else, the Rugby World Cup is the pinnacle of rugby and is therefore the biggest goal on the Wallabies’ radar for the foreseeable future.
After the All Blacks gave the Wallabies a flogging at Eden Park in August there were a lot of questions being asked about coaching decisions, including team line-ups right through to game tactics. These issues have been thoroughly discussed and I raised the issue of too much focus on tactics in my previous article.
The next step is to look at things from a higher level, take a more strategic overview and highlight some of the key milestones on our way to the Rugby World Cup. IThis is not about chest beating or making bold statements about what the Wallabies are going to do. It is about recognising that we need to have goals or milestones that we should aim for along the way to give us a better chance of victory when we get there.
Objective 1: Move up to second place in the IRB Rankings
Michael Hooper recently stated this objective and it is obviously on the radar for the Wallabies. Despite many people knocking him for speaking out, I don’t see any issue with the captain of the Wallabies coming out and stating that the team wants to improve. So what is required to get there?
The Rugby Championship can affect the outcome for the Wallabies. If the Springboks can upset the All Blacks this weekend it will do a lot for their rankings. If this happened, the Wallabies would need to win this weekend against Argentina, and back it up with a win in South Africa by 16 points or more.
This would be a tough ask.
A loss for South Africa this weekend would see them give up a maximum of 0.28 points. Not enough to give the number two spot to the Wallabies. The Wallabies have nothing to gain (points wise) from the match against Argentina, who are more than 10 ranking points behind the Wallabies.
So Argentina has nothing to lose and everything to gain, including a full two points if they were to win in the Gold Coast. This would see them leapfrog Fiji and Japan and land inside the top 10. If the Wallabies win this weekend, they can claim second place with only a draw in South Africa. A loss this weekend against Argentina would require an outright win in South Africa to achieve the same thing.
Beating South Africa on September 27 is the most fitting way to achieve the second place spot. But the Wallabies will be underdogs. According to ESPN, South Africa and Australia have played 82 times (since 1921) of which the Wallabies have won 34, or 42 per cent.
Objective 2: Building and maintaining momentum
It is important that we consider the journey of the Wallabies leading in to the Rugby World Cup, and not look at every match as if it is boom or bust. We are not failures if we lose one or two along the way, and we are not heroes because we jag a win out of the dying minutes of a game.
There are eight Tests left for this calendar year (not including the match against the Barbarians in November). We should look to complete 2014 with an undefeated record at home. This would require a win against Argentina this weekend and a win against the All Blacks in Brisbane on the October 18. Not only does this help the Wallabies build some confidence, but it is essential that we prove to ourselves that we can beat New Zealand. This milestone would go a long way to help build momentum into the Spring Tour.
The Spring Tour will also bring its fair share of challenges as we face Wales, France, Ireland and England (in that order). Obviously we will want to win every match and the Wallabies will need to be extremely fit and well drilled to achieve this. But a win against England at Twickenham would give a huge confidence boost coming into the Rugby World Cup, and it would also help make up for last year’s controversial loss. Wales at Millennium Stadium will also be great preparation.
Objective 3: Developing our players
We must take a multi-pronged approach to developing our players in preparation for the Rugby World Cup.
Structurally the ARU has taken some big steps by launching the National Rugby Championship (NRC). This helps by providing more game time for players across the code, but is unlikely to have a material impact on the Rugby World Cup.
So what are the priorities for the Wallabies prior to the World Cup?
There are many management theories that suggest that greater success will come from focusing on your strengths than your weaknesses. The theory is that it will take a lot less time to take your strengths from good to great, than it will to take your weaknesses from below par to average. While this analogy cannot be completely transferred to rugby, there is some merit in the concept.
During the Wallabies’ game against South Africa on the weekend, I heard John Eales and Phil Kearns making similar comments about the Wallabies needing to ‘decide what they wanted to be good at, and known for’. I am paraphrasing a little, but in essence I think they are saying to work out our strengths and look for ways to exploit them.
As for the weaknesses, I don’t think we can completely ignore them. Scrums and lineouts come to mind, but generally the Wallaby forwards have been under a lot of pressure. So we clearly need to put some additional systems and processes in place to improve in these areas.
Given it is probably too late to draft new players to the game (prior to the Rugby World Cup), we need to look at what stocks we have and then drill them to the point where they are masters of their domain. I am not saying that we will have the world’s greatest or most feared scrum but it should not be a glaring weakness.
But this is not just scrums, we need to hold own in all areas, and excel in some areas where we have a clear strength or advantage. This lifts the odds in our favour, and we can start to ‘play our own game’.
We need to get more people involved in the playing group. Players like Luke Jones and Cadeyrn Neville come to mind, but there are many more. On top of this it would be good to see the Wallabies group have more time together. One of the key benefits Michael Cheika had with the Waratahs is an extended period of time to build the culture, work on the key areas of improvement and evolve as a team. The Wallabies can learn from this.
Objective 4: Maintain the focus
Mind games. Media tactics. Over-the-top positional changes. All of these are distractions, and things that sap our momentum and our ability to build consistency. This is not so much a milestone but it is so important it is worth mentioning.
Positional changes can be tactical, but I would prefer to see consistency and the development of individual players. Help them grow from good to great. That’s what it will take to beat the All Blacks. Let’s stop trying to be the smartest people around and start to build a platform for our team.
Consistency builds confidence. Confidence helps teams to relax, and when they are relaxed they will take care of the basics instinctively, leaving room for the x-factor to come out more naturally. To try and manufacture an x-factor by chopping and changing people and positions only puts them under pressure and will create more mistakes.
What do you think should be the key goals or milestones for the Wallabies leading to the 2015 Rugby World Cup Roarers?
Jameswm
Guest
On paper the Brumbies, for starters, were clearly stronger at the start of the season. The way the Tahs played this year changed people's perception of how good their players were. Suddenly everyone thought they were the strongest on paper - well, they weren't saying that at the start of the season.
Simon Bedard
Roar Pro
Hey Niwdeyaj. Not sure if you are referring to Link's 2 years in the job not being enough, or that he doesn't get enough time with his players throughout the year. I certainly agree with the later, and the concept of the extended squad. I would also be really interested to know what the Wallabies do to help their players mentally prepare for the big games. I think that psychology is probably 80-90% of the outcome....especially when the teams aren't poles apart in talent.
Simon Bedard
Roar Pro
Thanks for the comments Beaujolais. I think we are fundamentally saying the same thing. The weaknesses need to be developed so they are not seen as fatal flaws. The strengths are then the point of difference to deliver a knockout blow. Appreciate you taking the time to comment. Cheers
Simon Bedard
Roar Pro
I agree that it will always be difficult to take points when you are playing the top three. But it is not all bad. Besides the obvious experience benefits the Argies are getting, they have nothing to lose with the top 4 ranked teams. At this point in time the Argies are more than 10 ranking points behind the top 4 teams and according to the IRB ranking system, they will not lose any points for losing to these teams. But if they happen to draw or win one, then the rewards are good. But granted, if you keep losing you still get zip. But I think the Argies are playing the long game and know that playing in the Rugby Championship will set them up for the future, and I suspect that in the coming years they will not only be very competitive (i.e. occasional win) against the top 4 but will start to spank the 6-10 ranked teams too.
Simon Bedard
Roar Pro
Hey BB...is this anything to do with players contracted to o/s clubs?
Simon Bedard
Roar Pro
Thanks For the comment Rob. Your absolutely right about injury management. It seems like every test we are talking about who is missing, or how many are missing so clearly this is an issue. Long term one would hope that additional depth will help resolve this to a degree, but you don't want to put players under unnecessary strain or risk of injury. Also agree with your point on solvency. It is easy to come up with ideas, but how do we pay for them? Perhaps a discussion point for another article.
Simon Bedard
Roar Pro
Thanks Greyman. Totally agree with your comments on too much kicking...particularly looking at the Perth test. It was very frustrating to watch the amount of kicking, but often the poor quality kicks too. I sometimes get the impression that no one wants to put their hand up to have a go. I get the weather was crap, but all the more reason to keep the ball in hand when your line is not under pressure. The penalty count was also poor for the Wallabies, and many of them were silly errors. The other stat being line outs. Our guys got murdered, and Simmons....the so-called line out specialist went absent with zero line out takes. Ridiculous.
Simon Bedard
Roar Pro
I certainly agree that having Moore back would be good. Taffy is good, but his line outs are often a problem. Not sure I agree about the Wallabies being on par with the Argies up-front. Their front row is their Ace in the hole and may be our undoing. Let's hope it is a good day at the office for our tight five. If they can hold their own our backs should cut holes all over the field.
The World Ranking of Argentina will never show a fair reflection if they continue to use second string players during their June inbound tors
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
Cheika is an amazing coach. He got Australias best team by miles to play like the best team by a good matgin. Overrated, by miles.
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
Enough time? Sounds like a very poor excuse to me. I hope to never hear it used again.
Tsar Nibble Woolly Arms.
Guest
I know people say the WC is the pinnacle but it isnt imo. Its just another cup in which one bad day for a team or a ref can mean being knocked out of the cup, for any team. The true pinnacle is the rankings system, it functions like a permanent league format in which the teams that deserve it (for the most part) rise to the higher rankings. The WC is a knockout comp and is won and lost over a series of do or die games and quite often the team that doesnt deserve victory (see all victories besides NZs) claims the title. I think Aus may get to number 2 but SA may maintain it just as easily. No biggy heading into the WC for the reasons stated above. Building momentum is not a massive issue either going on history. SA lost 10 of its 20 games heading into its WC victory of 2007 including 7 of its 10 tri-nats games. Developing players was crucial but that ship is starting to sail imo. Players such as McMahon, English, Kerevei, Jones and a few others need to be around the Wallabies and in the case of McMahon and Godwin, getting some game time. Cant say Ive seen any over the top positional changes. I know you will be getting at Beale playing 5/8 but that is a position he played often for club and country. No other big positional changes to speak of tbh and I cant see any coming.
kesmcc
Roar Pro
been looking forward to this game since i saw the fixtures. if the argies can really out muscle the wallabies pack i think they have a fair chance of pulling off their first win. They've had 3 pretty good games so far and must be desperate for a win. saying that i think you're right. if the wallabies can get some parity up front they will have the fire power in the backs to finish it off. definitely going to be won or lost up front. the weather forecast might not help the wallabies either. great read all up
onside
Guest
Tonight's Test should have been played on Saturday afternoon. Both the AFL and NRL are playing finals matches Saturday night. Rugby missed great opportunity to get some clean air exposure. The Test match ,on the Gold Coast, shoulda been held this arvo.
Magic Sponge
Guest
Who cares about the rankings , as Jamesw said it is the forwards 3,4,5,6 that will determine the wallabies fate.
Squirrel
Guest
100% agree James . Checka would have sorted this pack already. This test against Argentina would have been ideal to start Skelton and make him play out the 80 , bit slower paced. Insanity to keep persisting with this mob. We need moore desperately.
Beaujolais
Guest
Interesting read, Bernie, but I fundamentally disagree with your (and John Eales and Phil Kearns - if your paraphrasing of their comments was accurate) suggestion that the Wallabies should focus on enhancing their strengths more than improving their weaknesses. It might be viable for business managers to achieve commercial successes by increasing marketing and sales on popular products while dropping unpopular products from production, but a rugby manager must field a team that's competitive in all areas of the game to achieve success. The point is that in rugby, our strengths and weaknesses aren't as independent as they are in business. If the Wallabies can't front up in the forwards, then our supposedly brilliant backlines will be backpedalling the whole game. So for the Wallabies, if we can coach the forwards to dominate a game, then we'll achieve a whole lot more wins than if we coach the backs to produce more factors of X (whatever that is!) To take this point a step further, if the ARU decides that forward play and set piece dominence is boring, and introduces NRC rule variations that reduce the significance of scrum and lineout contests, then although the extra game time (at higher level than Shute Shield or equivalent) will help the players to improve somewhat, they won't be learning enough of the necessary skills that are going to make the biggest different to the successes of Australian SXV teams and the Wallabies.
atlas
Guest
Hi - an enjoyable article, thankyou Re Argentina and their current ranking - they have done themselves no favours in terms of rankings. No other side near, or outside, the top ten, would play a schedule involving nine matches in a season against top 4 teams. That's what Argentina did in 2013, and lost all nine. Their other matches, lost v Wales (ranked 6th at the time) and beat Italy (13th) and Georgia (16th) Scotland, Samoa, Japan and Fiji are currently all above Argentina in world rankings - throw any of those four into the current RC v the world's top 3 and see how many ranking points they gain. Of Argentina's ten test matches in 2014, 6 v top 3, 2 v 5th Ireland, 2 v Scotland (8th). Currently 0 from 6, with remaining matches v Aust (2), NZ and Scotland. Must be hard for the fans - possibly a 0 from 10 this year yet 'so close' 3 of 6 losses by 6 or less. There'll be a big cheer when they finally get their breakthrough.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks for the article I believe injury management ie prevention is critical to the delivering the above The 2nd measure is increased alignment and integration with the SR / NRC teams. Not necessarily top-down. Currently, this looks promising. The development of tight five in set piece and loose scrum is absolutely critical. I would also hope that WBs selectively uses warm up games against provinces and team. This is a measure used by Hourcade this year - and has delivered considerable success. Finally, the ARU has to be at least solvent.
Celtic334
Guest
Jake you obviously didn't realise that every forward in the australian starting pack tonight was born in australia.