What we learnt from week one of the 2014 NRL finals series

If the weekend’s matches are anything to go by, we could have a surprise pair of grand finalists to decide this year’s premiership.

For the third consecutive year, the South Sydney Rabbitohs have advanced through to a preliminary final, but their path to their first grand final since 1971 could be blocked by either the Sydney Roosters or North Queensland Cowboys, both teams who have defeated the Bunnies in three out of four matches this year.

The only blot was when the Rabbitohs defeated the Roosters 28-8 in the season opener, after the Chooks had started the year underdone as a result of their premiership win from last year, the fact they supplied the most players for the World Cup in England, and also their World Club Challenge triumph in February.

The Rabbitohs kicked off the finals series in style, piling on 40 points against the Manly Sea Eagles before easing off in the final quarter, allowing Geoff Toovey’s men to sneak in four late tries.

Despite the manner of the impressive victory, Rabbitohs coach Michael Maguire wasn’t all that impressed as he was later seen and heard spraying his players in the sheds after full-time.

He stressed that an 80-minute effort was required in finals, and that last quarter where they coughed up those four tries could come back to haunt them if they fall behind early in their preliminary final.

The Bunnies also led Manly 14-0 in last year’s preliminary final before capitulating to lose 30-20, thus letting a berth in the grand final slip through their fingers. While they will be determined not to repeat that mistake again, any chances of them reaching their first decider in over four decades may have to take a back seat given they lost to both the Roosters and Cowboys within the last three weeks of the regular season (in addition to losing to the latter team in Townsville in Round 16).

The loss to the Chooks, however, came when their halfback Adam Reynolds was missing through suspension. But with their number 7 back in their line-up on Friday night, there was no stopping the Bunnies against the Sea Eagles.

Trent Robinson’s men appeared to have had their qualifying final against the Panthers won when Mitchell Pearce scored inside the last seven minutes, only for the mountain men to hit back, and then have their ex-Rooster half Jamie Soward kick the match-winning field goal with seconds left.

While the Panthers get to enjoy next weekend off, the defending and minor premiers will be pitched into a sudden-death semi-final against the Cowboys this Friday night at Allianz Stadium.

The Roosters could face becoming the second defending premier in as many years to exit the finals series in straight sets, following the Melbourne Storm last year.

And not since 2009 has the minor premier gone out in such swift fashion either, when the St George Illawarra Dragons lost their two finals matches after finishing first at regular season’s end.

In their only meeting this year, the Cowboys scored an easy 42-10 win in Round 10. That, however, was in Townsville, and the defending premiers were missing Mitchell Pearce, who was stood down following the Kings Cross nightclub episode.

It will be their second meeting in a final after the Roosters defeated the Cowboys 19-16 in a tense and thrilling preliminary final at ANZ Stadium before going on to lose to the Bulldogs in the 2004 grand final.

Paul Green’s men were impressive in defeating the Brisbane Broncos 32-20 in their elimination final, marking the third time from as many finals meetings that little brother has gotten the better of big brother when it matters most.

After being either “not good enough” in the words of Johnathan Thurston, or robbed by controversial refereeing decisions which ended their finals campaign in each of the last two years, the Cowboys will need to be right on their game against the Roosters if they are to progress to their first preliminary final since 2007.

Given their wins over the Roosters and Rabbitohs this year from three meetings, their fans can dare to dream about a possible run to the grand final, something the club has not achieved since 2005 when they lost to the Wests Tigers in the decider.

No one could have forecast what would be inflicted upon the Melbourne Storm on Sunday, as the Bulldogs recorded their third win from as many meetings with the 2012 premiers this year, recording an astonishing 28-4 victory at AAMI Park.

The fitness of Cameron Smith was discussed at length before the match, and while he did take his place in the Storm line-up, he was little help as Craig Bellamy’s men suffered their earliest finals exit since 2000.

In addition, it was their heaviest defeat in a finals match since they lost the 2008 grand final to the Sea Eagles by 40-0. Could the Storm’s dynasty be ending?

Long-time club servants Billy Slater and Cameron Smith will both turn 32 on June 18 next year, and on the basis of the Storm’s inconsistent season, which saw them finish outside the top four for the first time since 2005 (excluding 2010), their retirements may be just around the corner.

In addition, forward Ryan Hoffman will leave the club for a second time, this time to join the New Zealand Warriors. And with current coach Craig Bellamy to retire at the end of his current contract, the Melbourne Storm could be facing the end of an era.

2010 aside, the Storm haven’t missed the finals since 2002, showing how consistent the club have been. But all good things must come to an end, and the Storm could be in for a difficult few years ahead as they ponder the future without Bellamy, Slater, Smith, Hoffman and Cooper Cronk, who turns 31 in December.

What this year has shown is that the Storm have lost their hunger to win another premiership, and that the club’s veterans may be starting to slow down and lose their touch.

Now the stage is set for two thrilling semi-finals:

Sydney Roosters versus North Queensland Cowboys
Friday, September 19
7:55pm
Allianz Stadium

Manly Sea Eagles versus Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday, September 20
7:45pm
Allianz Stadium

The South Sydney Rabbitohs and Penrith Panthers await the winners of these respective semi-finals in the last four.