Well, that was a weekend and a half of football, wasn’t it? Despite being just four games compared to the regular eight, and only played over three days, rather than the five of rounds previous, it felt like a big weekend of NRL.
My highlight? Souths’ first 60 minutes. They looked every bit of a premiership-winning side against Manly, who looked every bit not a premiership-winning side. I would hate to go on record writing off the Sea Eagles, though, as those who do tend to earn lifelong ire from Manly fans as well as a copious dose of egg on face.
I still don’t think this year’s their year, though.
The finals system, now three years on, is doing it’s thing too. It makes for a fairer pointy end, and generally appeases those who gaze longingly at the AFL modus operandi as well as those who just want a fair fight for their team.
But in my view, something sticks out as not quite right about the matches we’re to see this weekend.
The fifth-placed Cowboys will be playing the minor premiership-winning Roosters, while the seventh-placed Canterbury side are facing a down and out Manly, who finished the regular season in second.
Something about that doesn’t seem quite right.
I’m far from a North Queensland conspiracy screamer, coming from Brisbane originally, but it seems to me like those matches should be inverted, and it should be the Cowboys having a Round 26 rematch against the Sea Eagles, and the low-finishing Bulldogs facing the Roosters.
But before we get into solutions, let’s look at how the finals system works.
Basically, when the top eight qualify, they’re spilt into two halves.
1, 4, 5 and 8 are in one half, and 2, 3, 6 and 7 are in the other. If you add both of those sets, you get the same figure, 18, so mathematically, all seems fair and square, particularly if the finals run to the script.
If 1 beats 4, as they should, and 2 beats three, as theoretically they should. Then 5 beats 8 and 6 beats 7, then the second week of the finals look very different than they do this weekend.
You would then have 4 playing 5 and 3 playing 6 in the second week, which is more than fair. Again, add the two sets of numbers.
But the NRL is a bit of a special case. Every team is so even that you barely go a season without a few finals upsets. In this case both 1 and 2 lost for the first time since this finals system has been introduced.
This means that now the Cowboys, who would ‘usually’ be playing fourth place, are now playing first. The Bulldogs got lucky, and are playing the second placed Manly.
So should there be a contingency in the formula? Should the highest ranked loser (the Roosters in this case), instead play the lowest ranked winner, the Bulldogs here. And then the lowest ranked loser (Manly) would play the highest ranked winner from the lower bracket, the Cowboys.
Here’s the problem.
If you apply that principle, then the same would likely apply the following weekend, meaning the highest ranked winner (in the top bracket) from week one would play the lowest ranked winner from week 2, and the lowest ranked week one winner would play the highest ranked week 2 winner. Make sense?
The problem is that this would probably result in a re-match of the first week of finals. For example, if the Roosters beat the Bulldogs under that system, then they would advance to play the Panthers (the lowest ranked winner from the first round).
So, there’s a pickle no matter which system you use.
The solution would be to shift the games to the other half of the finals draw, to ensure there are no repeat fixtures come finals time.
There are still issues in the week following, but if the NRL continues to show a distinct unwillingness to follow the script it’s supposed to and let the ‘better’ teams win then the danger of rematches is distinctly less.
But it still seems to me like the first system is too much a case of ‘set and forget’, and I like the flexibility of my idea. The current system is mathematically very clean, but is messy if there are upsets. My system is a little mathematically sketchy, but I think gives a better result for teams.
What do you think Roarers? Has my tendency to overcomplicate taken over, or is this an idea worth pursuing?
Bahn
Roar Rookie
Top 8 seems like a lot, but it gives mid-table teams something to play for in the closing weeks. If you restrict it to 2 teams, most of the league will be out of the running – and then a solitary Grand Final is a little pointless if the 2nd-best team wins it. There's still the issue of the bottom teams (like the Sharks this year) having not much to play for at the end of the season. But that could only be solved if the NRL introduced relegation to lower leagues... pretty unlikely. Australian sports leagues seem to fall between two stools – having big 16- or 18-team divisions like in soccer, but with finals systems and permanent team "franchises" like in American sports. The finals were always going to be a bit messy, a bit of a compromise.
up in the north
Guest
Very well said Trenno, succinct and to the point. There's a lot of merit in the Cowbies staying down south for the duration after they beat the Roosters. In fact they are giving up a full day of prep' with travel already for this game, at this level that's a pretty big advantage. With regards to a final eight, I agree it's a fixation we seem to have as Aussies. What's wrong with playing each side twice, the two top finishers play a final, end of story?
The Barry
Guest
Patrick those rankings from the minor premiership are no longer relevant. You can't keep calling Penrith the number 4 ranked team when they have just beaten the number one in end of season footy.
Trenno
Guest
I'm a Cowboys supporter and like your suggestion, but it is what it is. If Roosters had won they would be playing 4th. I believe if the 'boys are to win the premiership it may as well be through taking on the best sides. At least that way they will be rated the best side and not just a lucky side that didn't have to play the best in the finals. NQ have the team to do it, I'm just wondering how the constant travel from Townsville to Sydney will effect them. If the Cowboys beat the Roosters on Friday night, one suggestion is that they stay in Sydney for as long as they are in the finals, however then the team would be exposed to home sickness. Still worth that risk. Really it should be down to the Roosters, Souths, Penrith and to a smaller extent Manly as they dont have to leave Sydney for the entire final series. Bulldogs now dont have to leave for the rest of the series so they could be added to that list as well. This is why if the Cowboys win the premiership it will be up there with the greatest achievements I have ever seen.
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Now now...
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Well, if you want to take it back to maths, you've got 1,3 and 5 on one side of the finals draw and 2, 4 and 7 on the other. Those numbers don't add up, which was the whole point of the article. It just so happens that in my opinion, 1, 3, 4 and 5 are the best teams in the league at the moment. This won't always be the case though.
Statler and Waldorf
Roar Guru
If we change the system everytime something comes up that is not perfect then we will change it almost every year. While I don't agree with a top eight, leave it alone
Elron
Guest
So the form teams should only meet in the GF, makes perfect sense?? The best team of the opening round was Canterbury, they converted their opportunities combined with their outstanding defence against the Storm big 3! Souths-Manly, only one team played for 60mns while the other dozed. They then switched roles for the last 20mins. Roosters-Panthers, too many mistakes in the first half by both teams. The home side terrible but still could have won while the nervous Panthers should have wrapped it up easily instead of leaving it late. Cowboys-Broncos, perfect attack from the home side against the visitors shoddy goal line defence in the 1st half. The trend reversed in the opening 20mins of the 2nd half. Both teams guilty of poor defensive reads, hardly high quality. Am I watching the same NRL games??
The Barry
Guest
Souths beat the team that finished second. Penrith beat the team that finished first. Manly lost to the team that finished third. Roosters lost to the team that finished fourth. Cowboys beat the team that finished 8th at home. Bulldogs beat the team that finished 7th away from home. Based on all of that it’s clear which is the ‘stronger’ side of the draw.
Hutchoman
Roar Pro
As I said, not suggesting this is going to happen ... after all, I've never accused the NRL and Channel 9 of fairness in scheduling.
The Barry
Guest
Sorry Patrick I somehow misinterpreted the photo of thurston, the cowboys being the only team tagged, the constant examples of how this is unfair to the cowboys and the reference to North Queensland conspiracy theories as meaning the article was about North Queensland.
The Barry
Guest
Nordberg the problem with your theory is that it just doesn't happen that a team falls into 8th spot and then turns it around to win 4 games in the semis to win the comp.
The Barry
Guest
Patrick you're now moving away from all the 'mathematical' arguments you made in your article and determining the fairness of the draw based on who you think is in form. The path was laid out very clearly before the semis. Didn't hear too much about it being unfair before the roosters lost and storm got thumped.
The Barry
Guest
The semis are a separate comp. Placings in the minor premiership determine seeding, home ground advantage and who gets a second chance vs who plays an elimination semi. There's plenty of advantages there. If roosters and storm won no one would be saying the draw was lopsided. Well on immediate form panthers and bulldogs are better so how is the draw lopsided now.
matth
Guest
Yep, I'm sure Channel 9 and the NRL will be keen to ditch the only game each year that fills their biggest stadium.
Patrick Effeney
Editor
I think I iterated about as much in the above, but I also think it's worth talking about who's in form and who's not. The Roosters were on fire coming into the finals, and I still think will probably win the comp. The Panthers don't seem to know how to lose, sure, but they're got a long injury list. Manly cannot be accused of being in form at the moment. That Bulldogs-Storm game was the worst of the finals in my view, and the Cowboys are arguably, along with Souths and Roosters, and you could include Panthers, the form team of the comp.
Nordburg
Guest
Only fair system is a Top 5.First 3 get a double chance as they deserve.I know the pathetic NRL and Ch9 will say they get more games on TV,but not always quality and that more teams stay in contention longer but it also means more poor teams stay in contention.Broncos fell into the 8,Warriors are the Warriors and Parra were flogged 48-0 only a few weeks ago and were soundly beaten by Knights and Raiders to finish the season.The 8 lends itself to a team just making it in and only playing 4 good games and winning it.If we only had 5 take a look at how close the finish would be with NQ,Storm and Dogs all fighting for 5th spot. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
fiver
Guest
the one benefit of the mcintyre system was it gave a bigger advantage to team's 1 & 2, but when both 1 & 2 win in the first week then the other 2 games become meaningless.
Albo
Guest
Only if you think that Penrith shouldn't have beaten the Roosters nor the Dogs should have beaten the Storm both away from home? It only looks lopsided if you underestimate the ability of those two winning teams ! Haven't you been watching the games throughout the season ? There is nothing between most of the teams on any given day. Remember that "lowly" Penrith beat the Roosters at home on the weekend, the Cows barely got past Cronulla reserves at home in extra time a week ago and have a terrible Sydney record, and Souths are noted chokers this time of year ! Seems to me the tough side of the draw might be the group with the experienced finals team Manly, and the now in form Bulldogs and still in -form Panthers ! But I am happy to accept that there is no real lopsidedness between the two groups, just the wonderful uncertainty of the finals games ! !
Hutchoman
Roar Pro
If you really want to talk about fairness, then get rid of finals altogether. The four weeks would then be used for home and away fixtures and with another two games to be found you have the much desired situation of everyone playing everyone twice on a home and away basis. This rewards those who are consistently the best throughout the year and doesn't reward those who happen to come good late or penalise those who have one bad game at the wrong time. Now, I'm not suggesting this is going to get adopted any time soon (Australian codes/fans seem to have the need for a finals series), but if the question is fairness, removing finals is the way to go.