After putting their double-chance to waste and exiting September in straight sets, one must think about whether the great Geelong dynasty could be finally about to end.
Yet again the Cats defied the critics who labelled the side “too old and too slow”, before finishing equal first with the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn on 17 wins. They finished third on percentages.
But three seasons have passed since the Cats last mounted the premiership dais in 2011. What this year has shown is that perhaps Chris Scott’s men have lost their hunger to win another flag.
So could this be the end of the Cats’ empire as we know it? Let’s now assess where it went wrong in 2014.
Geelong Cats
Final ladder position: third (17 wins, 5 losses, 113.8%)*
After finals: fifth
Rising Star nominees: None
Retirees/delistees: None (as of yet)
*does not include their two finals losses
What went right?
Again, the Cats showed their consistency throughout the season to finish third at season’s end, winning their first five matches of the year and losing just once in Victoria during the regular season.
The leadership of Joel Selwood was also a highlight for the fans, and after getting so close to tying with Gary Ablett Jr for last year’s Brownlow Medal, is the favourite to win the League’s top individual award in 2014.
Tom Hawkins continued to deliver up forward, narrowly missing out on the Coleman Medal, finishing second to Sydney’s Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin.
What went wrong?
In each of the Cats’ five regular season losses this year, the side was simply outclassed, with their smallest defeat in this category being by 23 points to Hawthorn in Round 22.
They also gave up their recent dominance of Port Adelaide, losing by 40 points at the Oval in Round 6, while also suffering an upset loss to the Gold Coast Suns by the same margin on the holiday strip in Round 14.
Additionally, the club suffered from the absence of Steve Johnson in the semi-final loss to the Kangaroos, with many believing that he may have been the difference between the Cats losing and still being alive in the race for the premiership.
Best win: Round 13 versus St Kilda at Simonds Stadium (won 20.13 (133) to 5.7 (37))
The Cats’ best victory for the season came against last-placed St Kilda at Simonds Stadium in Round 13.
After surprisingly coughing up the first goal of the match inside the first 15 seconds, the Cats dominated from that point onwards to win by 96 points and eventually complete an undefeated run at Simonds Stadium for 2014.
Worst loss: Round 11 versus the Sydney Swans at the SCG (lost 5.8 (38) to 22.16 (148))
Just a fortnight before that huge win against the Saints, the Cats suffered their worst defeat in over eight years when they lost to the Sydney Swans by an unthinkable 110 points in the opener to the AFL’s Indigenous round.
In what rated as the Cats’ worst opening half since 1977, they could only muster 1.3 (9) while coughing up 8.9 (57) to a Swans side whose forward pairing of Franklin and Kurt Tippett were on fire.
Chris Scott’s men would only manage five goals for the evening.
However, the Cats would bounce back to finish equal first by regular season’s end, moving on from this result with minimum fuss. It would be this loss which dented Geelong’s percentage and proved to be the difference between them finishing second or third.
The future
After crashing out of the finals series in straight sets, captain Joel Selwood has demanded that his players “take a good look at themselves” and improve if they are to return to the premiership dais in 2015.
Three completed seasons have now passed since the Cats’ most recent premiership in 2011 and having also failed to reach the grand final in subsequent seasons, the Cats’ long dynasty could be about to end sooner rather than later.
The club has yet to announce who they will delist ahead of the Draft in November, while there have not yet been any major retirements either. With their playing list continuing to age, some of their senior core players will also continue to slow down.
Jimmy Bartel will be 31 by next season and Steve Johnson will be 32, so you would think that both players will start to think about hanging up the boots sometime within the next few years.
Luckless forward Daniel Menzel, after three seasons wiped out by four knee reconstructions, should be fit in time for pre-season training and if all goes well, will remain on track to resume his career in Round 1 next year.
After such a long period of being so successful, it will remain to be seen if an ageing list and their achievements will start catching up to them in 2015. Therefore, don’t be surprised if most AFL experts predict them to finish in the bottom half of the eight in 2015, or maybe even miss the finals.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
That's true Bosk, but it's pretty tough to get into the top 4. I do expect them to make the top 8 though and it really is going to depend on if the little master plays exceptionally well again. I don't think they have the capacity even next year to be true contenders without Ablett, so all it takes is for him to not recover from a farely significant injury for them to have issues.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
If the AFL gifts Gold Coast with another draw next year (a near certainty) then they'll be my pick to replace Geelong in the top 4. GC's potential for rapid improvement across almost its entire list is terrifying.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
I agree Fraser with pretty much everything you said. My issue is I believe there is more upside with some of the teams below and that's all it can take sometimes to slide down the ladder. Geelong has most likely been favoured to some extent by the two new clubs taking up a lot of the young talent. Chriss Scott was interviewed "On the Couch' and also mentioned this. He felt that were possible benefactors of this due to other teams just below them not being able to catch up quick enough. Well now we have one of those expansion teams about to be on their heels so it's going to be interesting times ahead for all the clubs.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Well history tells us someone does and someone new comes in. I don't see it being the Hawks, Sydney, Port of Freo for sure. My next best are the Roos and I don't see them falling out either. After that you have Geelong, Richmond and Essendon. The contenders are likely to come from Adelaide, West Coast. Gold Coast and maybe Carlton. So who do you think will fall out or do you think the 8 will stay the same?
Garry Fraser
Guest
It all sounds cut and dry , but its not , talk about a aging list is to a large degree rubbish, at the end of the home and away season, the cats had 31players on the senior and rookie list 23 or younger, the 3rd highest ammount after the Suns and GWS. Simpson is 25, Selwood , Hawkins , Varcoe and Sheringham are 26, Taylors just turned 28, the issue is the gap between the young and older players , the cats at seasons end had only 5 players in the 24, 25 ,26, year old bracket, yes the older players must remain hungry to play or go , and the Cats will have their fingers crossing that Menzell, Vardy and Cowan recover , it must be remembered also thjat Christenson, Burbury , McCarthy, Kirsten , Hunt , Simpson, Stringer and Smedts missed a huge ammount of the year with injury, and the recruits from last year havent been tried yet, They may well be in decline , but ive heard this for 5 years now
Mark
Guest
Why would Essendon and Richmond drop out?
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Not a bad summary, but I would hardly call their best win for the year being against the Wooden Spooners. The thing Geelong will always have in it's favour is it's the only team in Victoria that truly has a home ground advantage. You said yourself they completed the season undefeated at Simmons, which is massive. They also get enough games at the G to know the ground extremely well, which gives them that edge in September (clearly not this year) also. However, your right that they are most likely on the slide, but this is nothing new. They finished 2nd last year and third this year after the home and away season. They finished 3rd last year and 5th this year after the finals so again we can see a gradual slide there. I expect them to finish in the bottom half of the 8 and possibly even falling out of the 8. The three most likely clubs to go out would be Essendon, Richmond and Geelong. The other 5 I don't think are going anywhere and will jockey for those top 5 positions. My biggest concern this year was Geelongs percentage for this is one of the best indicators when it comes to winning a premiership. More teams over the past 25 years have won the premiership with the highest percentage than actually finishing top, so it is one of the best indicators we have. Geelong's was terrible for a top 4 team and it's hard to think they will be still in the top 4 next year.