The Roar‘s expert tipping panel is back once again with their tips and predictions for the 2014 AFL preliminary finals.
In the first week of the AFL Finals every favourite walked away victorious, in the second week it was all underdogs.
History says the underdogs have little hope of advancing this weekend, and if tipping redemption is destined for our experts, history will need to hold firm.
More AFL Finals:
» PREVIEW: Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
» PREVIEW: Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power
Can Sydney and Hawthorn both advance to the grand final that many believe should happen?
Or can Port Adelaide or North Melbourne become the first side from outside the top four to make a grand final since 2000?
Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Friday September 19, 7:50pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium
TV: Seven Network (LIVE), Fox Footy (LIVE)
Sean says: The Kangaroos might be able to run with the Swans for a little while but they will be unable to contain the Sydney midfield and forward division for a whole game. Plus they will have difficulty scoring against the miserly Sydney defence. Sydney by 60 points in a boil-over.
Cam says: Sydney by 37 points. The downside of a underdog fairytale run through the finals is that when it runs out, it inevitably means a lopsided game. North are in high spirits, which will hopefully keep them in it for a while, but the Swans have only lost two matches in the last five months. Sydney’s defence is stingier, their midfield has higher quality at the top end and bats deeper with it, and their forward-line boasts too many weapons. Hopefully the Roos can keep them honest for a while, but even their best form has been too patchy to give them any real hope of winning.
Geoff says: Sydney to defeat North Melbourne by 32 points. When the rain was threatening, this could have been an absolute contested-ball belter in the wet, and I’d have had North in with a chance. They should stay with Sydney for a fair distance in this contest, but in the end the Swans have too many options up forward and too much consistency in midfield. They’ll peel away late.
Glenn says: Sydney to beat North Melbourne by 19 points. The Kangaroos were clinical in their second-half dismantling of Essendon last weekend. However, the opponent it faces this Friday is a step-up in class. With a talent laden forward line that is likely to receive a constant supply, Sydney will prove too strong.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power
Saturday September 20, 4:45pm (AEST), MCG
TV: Seven Network (LIVE), Fox Footy (LIVE)
Sean says: If Port can continue to ride the wave of confidence they are currently on then this promises to be a cracking game. They will have to hit Hawthorn hard and hit them often if they are to win. The Hawks are one tough unit though with multiple options across most lines. Hawthorn by 12 points in a thriller.
Cam says: Hawthorn by 8 points. Port supporters should take heart from this prediction, as I’m yet to successfully tip them, as much as I have loved their run-and-gun approach over the last two seasons. The Power will bring the speed, the Hawks the precision in what should be a wildly entertaining match. Port probably has more individual match-winners than Hawthorn, and are playing fully committed football, but will the energy run out? The Hawks have been playing preliminary finals for years, and know exactly how to get through them, even if it’s often not pretty. They should again.
Geoff says: Port Adelaide to defeat Hawthorn by 18 points. Now that I’ve ascended to the top of this brutal finals footy tipping competition, the conservative option would be to pick the favourites and coast home. But that has no style. I’ve tipped against the Power twice and they’ve burned me both times. Surely I have to get on board.
I think that Port are back. They’ve got their belief, their run, and their attacking intensity. Did you see their little faces last week? Did you see Wingard and Robbie Gray? They’re riding a wave, and they have enough individual stars to stun a complete, well-drilled Hawthorn. If they can do Freo at the Winery, they can carry that to Melbourne in week three – close till the dying minutes when they’ll skip away.
Glenn says: Hawthorn to beat Port Adelaide by 26 points. After a week off the reigning premier will be primed and ready for whatever Port dishes up. For the Power to reach the grand final they must dominate the stoppages. The Hawks are one of the most efficient users of the ball in the competition. If Port concedes first use of it too often to Hawthorn it cannot expect to get it back too often. With the likes of Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis to contend with it is hard to see the Power progressing.
| Week 1 | Semi-finals | Prelim-finals | Grand Final | Total | |
| Glenn | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Sean | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Geoff | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Cam | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Mitcher
Guest
Back on board the Sean train Bill?
Sean Lee
Expert
Hey Bill, did you catch the game? :-)
The Oven
Guest
Brian I agree with you completely. I think there is a gap between the two under dog teams with Port being much closer to the level of Sydney and Hawthorn, making the second preliminary final very interesting. I know that Sydney did a Perth finals trip (albeit in the first week of the finals) in both 05 and 06 and made the grand final both times from doing those trips. But they had an extra week. After Collingwood bailed West Coast out of the semi in straight sets in 07 they only narrowly went down to Geelong in the prelim, who ultimately won the GF by a lot.
Sean Lee
Expert
You might be right!
Sean Lee
Expert
Yep, last time was a long time ago Bill. Round 4 I believe and the Swannies had yet to get going. Would love the Kangas to win, but I can't see it happening. Then again, my tipping this year hasn't been the best..........
Brian
Guest
Swans by 60+. North have played their GF. Essendon should have put them away in the first half and Geelong belted them in the 4th. Bottom line is I can't remember the last time they played 4 quarters and when it goes against them Sydney will punish them. Hawks v Port is different because Port is such a superior side to North. Wingard, Wines, Gray & co not only run fast they are so clinical when they get their opportunities. The key will be the stoppages where Hawthorn bat deep. If the Power break even there every chance to win. Ultimately history says more often then not the trip to Perth will hurt them. I don't have the time now but has anyone ever gone to Perth won a final and then won another travelling a week a later? I suspect not given how much coaches complain about the trip during the regular season.
Milz
Guest
Most intelligent thing said by a swans fan on this side.
teo
Guest
I'm always reticent to predict a winner but it should be Sydney and Hawks. Many North fans keep referring to the round 4 win, well it's pretty irrelevant at this stage and will have no bearing on tomorrows result. North lost well to the Cats in round 19 before just beating them last week so reading into past results as a form guide in the context of a Pre-Lim is pointless. Sydney and Hawks deserve to be favourites even before comparing the teams and match ups given they finished the H&A on top, had a week off and are playing at home. As a Swans fan I'm always nervous before all games and it seems the nerves get only worse with favouritism. Anyone can win on the day and the Roos are certainly capable of causing an upset if the Swans are a bit off their game. Sydney have absolutely no excuses from this point while North will always be credited for doing well to get this far regardless of what happens tomorrow night, and I don't mean that in a condescending way. I think the most interesting thing so far in this finals series is how much value a healthy fresh list is worth? All 4 teams left have close to full strength teams at the business end of the season. If We look at Geelong and Freo we see both have been struck down heavily by injuries and one could argue that it's been a major factor in their finals failure. It felled Sydney last year at the final hurdle when they got monstered by a rampant Freo. So tomorrow night at ANZ we will see two healthy teams go at it, it will be hard and aggressive footy and although it is the job of the above commentators to predict the results we really won't know till the final siren, after all this is a pre-lim and the only thing harder than winning a pre-lim is winning a Grand Final. Good luck Sydney! I'll be screaming from row 8 behind the posts.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
A lot of people are tipping the Swans in a canter, I am not so sure even though I would like to believe it as a Swans fan. The Roos have consistently shown this year their best is good enough to beat the top 4 sides so only a fool would take them lightly. That being said, they have been very patchy in the finals to date and could be considered lucky to make it this far. Certainly a blow out is possible but then again it could be very close. To win, North will need to isolate Petrie, Brown and Thomas in their forward line with one-one contests. If the Swans defenders are able to peel off and work together, I can't seem North kicking a winning score. Ultimately though, the Swans are a level above the Cats and Bombers and I think they will be too strong. Go the Swannies!
Me Too
Guest
Looking at the respective tipping success of these 'experts' i reckon they might have just given sydney and hawthorn the kiss of death.
Pope Paul vii
Guest
North by 7 Port by 8 Year of the Underdog.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
I think Sydney and Hawthorn are both streets ahead of the rest of the comp, and are rested, at near full strength, and playing at home- so: Sydney by 60+ over North Hawks by 42 over Port
Bill
Guest
So Sean, you generally reckon there will be a 103 points difference between the Kangas/Swans game earlier this year and tomorrow? Mmmm, last time I read on of your articles.
Bill
Guest
So Sean, you generally reckon there will be a 103 points difference between the Kangas/Swans game earlier this year and tomorrow? Mmmm, last time I read on of your articles.