NRL finals stats: Roosters versus Cowboys is too close to call

While the Roosters had a game to forget last weekend, the Cowboys blew the Broncos away.

The stats between these two sides are extremely tight, making a final outcome hard to predict.

Let’s have a look at all the number anyway, to see what we can come up with.

Roosters versus Cowboys
7:55pm, Friday 19 September, Allianz stadium

The history
This is the 31st match between these two sides dating back to 1995. It is 21 games to nine in the Roosters’ favour. In Sydney (and the one match in Gosford) the Roosters have a 10 to two advantage over the Cowboys, but the last two times the sides have clashed at Allianz Stadium the Cowboys have won.

Having said that, these two teams haven’t met in Sydney since May 2010. An interesting stat is that of the 11 games between the two sides at the Sydney Football Stadium, 10 of them have been 13-plus margins of victory. In fact, in only five out of their 30 clashes so far has the winning margin been less than 13 points. So the stats indicate that it is an 83 per cent likelihood that we’ll have another big win to one side or the other.

The only clash between the sides this year was back in Round 10, when the Cowboys smashed the Roosters 42-10. The Roosters’ handling was diabolical, making 11 errors. The possession was 60 to 40 per cent in the Cowboys’ favour, who completed at 93 per cent. Matt Scott made 201 metres that night and five of his forwards made more than 100 metres. The Roosters were missing Mitchell Pearce through suspension following his incident with the girl in the yellow dress.

A very worrying stat for the Cowboys is that they’ve only won three of their 12 away games this season.

Last week
The Roosters celebrated Anthony Minichello’s 300th game by having a shocker. With their 16 errors and resultant 57 per cent completion rate it was remarkable that Penrith only won by one point. Pearce missed three tackles and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves missed five, while Minichello made three errors. The big consolation is that surely they couldn’t play that badly two weeks in a row.

On the back of 24 first half tackle breaks the Cowboys blew the Broncos away to set up a match-winning lead. Only three Cowboys didn’t break a tackle in the match, with Robert Lui breaking four, Jason Taumalolo five and Michael Morgan and Glenn Hall both with seven. North Queensland were committed and rampaging. However, in the second half they fell away, missing 25 tackles. They cannot afford to do that against the Roosters.

Defence
Not much separates these sides in defence. The Roosters are the second worst side for errors in 2014 and have fumbled 23 more times than the Cowboys this year. However, North Queensland have conceded 22 more line breaks this year than the Roosters, who are second only to the Rabbitohs in that stat. The Roosters concede more than seven penalties a game on average and have given away 23 more than the Cowboys this year. The Roosters conceded 40 more metres a match.

There are some turnstiles in defence in this game. James Maloney misses 3.3 tackles a game, while his halves partner Pearce misses 2.5. But the Cowboys aren’t too crash hot either. Thurston misses two 7 and his halfback Lui misses 2.3. The Roosters will love having Jake Friend and Aidan Guerra back in the defensive line, they are the primary tacklers for the Roosters and were sorely missed last week.

In regards to errors, Minichello is the worst in the NRL this year. He’s made 34 so far this year from 25 matches. He’s got lots of company in his side with Maloney making 33 and Shaun Kenny-Dowall 30. Thurston and Morgan have both made 28 for the Cowboys.

In regards to penalties, Waerea-Hargreaves is the worst offender in the NRL having made an unprecedented 29 so far this year. While James Maloney has equalled his NRL worst offender record count from 2013, he is seven shy of the big Kiwi up front. Tariq Sims is the Cowboys’ worst offender with 19 but in his absence brother Ashton will take that mantle with his 16 penalties conceded.

Attack
These two sides are the top two for tries scored this year, and over the whole season the Cowboys have scored one solitary try more than the Roosters. The Roosters have conceded eight fewer than the Cowboys but they are the second and third best respectively for that stat.

The Roosters are the number one side in the NRL this year for line breaks and tackle breaks. However, the Cowboys are not far behind them in either stat. And if you love a good offload you’ll hate this game. Both sides are in the bottom four for getting their hands free. The one advantage the Cowboys really have over the Roosters is that they are 100 metres overall better a match.

In the playmakers the Roosters have two primary options. Maloney and Pearce have 29 line break assists and 35 try assists between them. However, the Cowboys have three players who frequently make the play. The combination of Thurston, Morgan and Lui has 44 line break assists and 64 try assists between them. Lui has been in hot form in his last two matches with four try assists. Mitchell Pearce has also been running into some great form.

The danger men
Johnathan Thurston keeps adding to his NRL best playmaker stats. He now boasts 19 line break assists, 30 try assists and 11 tries. Matt Scott averages 157 metres a game and will lead the Cowboys pack. He has made 44 tackle breaks and five line breaks this year.

Michael Morgan has 14 line breaks and 10 trys for the year. He’ll be assisted by Antonio Winterstein, who has 16 line breaks and 15 tries.

Jason Taumalolo made 123 metres and five tackle breaks last week. He’ll need to be even better this week against Cordner, Sonny Bill Williams and Guerra – especially with Tariq Sims out.

Everyone is allowed favourite players and I love Boyd Cordner. His 11 line breaks, 10 tries, 116 metres and 30 tackles are below what I reckon he can do. He is just about ready to explode.

Sonny Bill Williams. We’ve been expecting him to burst into top form for a while now. His stats are way down on 2013. Maybe he’s been saving himself for this game?

Maloney and Pearce need to be at their attacking best and not at their fumbling worst. When they are on they are deadly and the Cowboys will be looking to smash them.

This could be Minichello’s last game and you can bet he won’t die wondering. 2014 has been a great swan song for this NRL legend. While he might have had a rough 300th, you can bet he’ll add to his 15 trys in this game.

So who’s going to win and why
This is a very tough one to call. There really isn’t much separating the two sides statistically. It really comes down to how they play on the night. I find it hard to believe that the Roosters can play so badly two weeks in a row and I expect them to rally.

However, one final stat is that the Roosters at home this season have averaged 17.3 points scored against top eight sides. The Cowboys away from home against top eight sides have averaged 19.4 points scored. So I guess this’ll be one of the 17 per cent of games between these sides decided by 12 points or less.

Prediction: Cowboys by two