Caulfield gets the racing spotlight put back on it this Saturday with another strong nine-race card, highlighted by the $400,000 Group 1 Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800m).
Last year we saw an unforgettable clash between It’s A Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel in the race, with the former getting the verdict in a thrilling finish.
While the 2014 edition doesn’t have that class of equine flesh, the hype surrounding it is just as intriguing.
Will The Offer continue on from his superb first up run in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m)? Will Silent Achiever finally show Melbourne how good she is as she heads towards the first Tuesday in November? And what about Stipulate? He looked awfully good here three weeks back. How will he handle the big boys and girls?
There was plenty to like about the first up run of Silent Achiever in the Memsie to Dissident. She got left flat footed when the leaders sprinted on the turn, but picked up late and was very good through in finishing fourth. She will have come on big time from that outing, great record second-up, and Damien Oliver sticks. Record at Caulfield is ordinary, but she hasn’t raced any better than what she is at present.
The Offer got a big tick of approval from his first up effort in the Dato Tan Chin Nam behind The Cleaner at the Valley a couple of weeks back. He really had no right to finish as close as he did considering there was a dynamite on pace bias at the meeting and jockey Tommy Berry had to make his move a fair way from home. He will also take massive improvement heading into this, and although his grand final is on the first Tuesday in November, he’ll take some beating here.
I’m tipping a much improved run from Happy Trails. He was okay first up in the Spring Stakes back home at Morphettville, then went to the Memsie and was another who got left behind when the sprint went on 500 metres out. He quickly came off the bit, but he stuck on late and was good through the line. He can be hard to follow, but you know sooner or later he is going to bob up in one of these races and then fire when it matters. He is a very good horse, so third up here, he should be ready to show something solid.
Stipulate just oozed class in his Australian Bloodstock win over 1700 metres here three weeks, sitting off a good speed before letting down powerfully and winning with ridiculous ease on the line. Second up last time he ran second to Le Roi and that horse went on to run behind It’s A Dundeel in the Queen Elizabeth so the form does read well, and the horse he beat last start, Brambles, won on Saturday at Flemington. He’ll take a power of beating if he can handle the class rise.
Selections
Despite her ordinary Melbourne record, I’ll put Silent Achiever (10) on top, to beat The Offer (4), Happy Trails (1) for some value, then Stipulate (9).
A Caulfield Cup start will be ensured for the winner of the $150,000 Group 3 Jack London Naturalism Stakes (2000m), and that spot will go to Spillway, based on how well he ran last week in the Makybe Diva behind Dissident, making up a stack of ground from the back in a race which wasn’t suited for the backmarkers. His run prior in the P.B. Lawrence was excellent, so up to 2000 metres now, even field, gets in well at the weights.
Bonfire comes to Melbourne after two strong runs up north in Sydney. First up he ran a narrow second to Hoylonny, then went to the Premier’s Cup and ran second to stablemate Greatwood, who then raced last Saturday and got flogged, but I wouldn’t read too much into that, because Bonfire has more upside and is more versatile than Greatwood.
One of the better three-year-old fillies from last season, Zanbagh, has had two runs as a four-year-old mare under the care of Patty Payne and she has been quite good in each, considering they were both over unsuitable distances and at the Valley. 2000 metres at Caulfield should suit and being third up now, she is ready to produce.
Selections
Spillway (1) a special, ahead of Bonfire (5), Zanbagh (9) and Our Voodoo Prince (4), who was much better last time out and is the knockout runner.
The best Victorian sprinting mares will slog it out in the second heat of the Sportingbet Sprint Series (1200m), and I am leaning towards the class factor which is of course Samaready.
She was very good fresh in the Lightning behind Snitzerland, then was disappointing in the Newmarket behind Lankan Rupee before flopping in the William Reid. Recent jumpout here was encouraging, and giving only 4 kilograms to the bottom weight, she just about takes care of these if she is right.
A Time For Julia could not have been ridden better by Nolen first up in the opening heat of this series, but was beaten by a sharper and fitter mare in Gregers. Form has held up there, with Commanding Jewel and Dear Demi both running corkers last Saturday, and I wouldn’t worry about Gregers flopping because that mare isn’t a 1400 metre horse.
The race doesn’t appear to have much early pace apart from stablemate Brilliant Bisc, so perhaps Nolen will fire out and get the drag up behind the more speedy filly. Nonetheless, a very good mare who will prove hard to beat.
Girl Guide was smashed in pre-post betting prior to her first up run at the Valley, and the punters knew what they were doing when she spanked her rivals and won with plenty in reserve. She deserves a crack at this level, and we know where she will be – out of trouble on the speed. Weight scale doesn’t suit her, but she is tough and in form.
Selections
Samaready (1) the class and one to beat, ahead of A Time For Julia (4) and Girl Guide (13). For value in exotics, include Politeness (6), who will be steaming home late.
Punters can start the afternoon on the right note thanks to Zeletto, who goes around in the first race. He just absolutely toyed with them off a freshen up a couple of weeks back at Sportingbet Park, sitting wide with no cover yet went straight past them close to home like a good horse and ran impressive time. He smashed Zebulon by five lengths on debut then ran a narrow second to Royal Snitzel here. Just looks the winner on that alone.
michael steel
Guest
The assessments are fine but you've tipped four horses in the UNDERWOOD with one placegetter in the first three. Picking winners is never easy. Thanks to modern form analysis we basically know where each horse will settle and where they will all be at the 200. But where they are when they hit the line is the mystery. I like the Roar for it's assessments and post mortems but tips don't interest me. There's a form guide. Silent Achiever had four starts at Caulfield for no placings and you put it on top.
Bondy
Guest
James Whats the point of track protection if it delivers bias to certain types of horses, this is racing not Gardening Australia ...
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
The rail is out to protect the track... Guineas day is just around thd corner. Same at Randwick.
ray ford
Guest
The plot may thicken again, points made about the rail out 9 metres, firming track. Rail-hugging front-runners may have the day. Viewing the early races could be essential in any bias. If so, this meeting throws up many challenges. With tactics playing so much in modern racing, value on the punt is paramount.
Bondy
Guest
BrisburghPhil SAch is a lay there tomorrow, Forteller hasn't won a race for a year the Makybe Stks of 2013 and The Offer nearly beat him home first up from a spell, Lidari does nothing and Star Rolling's a chance having only won a Grp 2 race, it is a very weak Grp 1 race ...
Bondy
Guest
Just noticing the first four races at Randwick tomorrow could start without a third divi the first two races will ,thats shocking programming ...
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
I think you are right Andrew. There isn't much to suggest SA is better right handed than left handed. She won a G2 in Melbourne (Crystal Mile) and the reason she won those races in Sydney last preparation I think was because of the inclusion of Blinkers. That said Foreteller is third up and she is only second up so he has the fitness edge and on his last run 1800m should suit. Maybe a chance for Stipulate to show how weak our WFA ranks are and Happy Trails much better suited up to 1800m. This is possibly the weakest Underwood Stakes I have ever seen,
Bondy
Guest
I wonder is there a need to have the rail out so far I expect on paced horses to figure prominently tomorrow.
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
Crackerjack King was favourite for the Group 1 Arlington Millions two years ago before his tendon injury. He may be no chance because Northerly didn't return with success after the same injury but he's a an interesting runner and a grey and I'm backed him last run at 80/1 at the Valley and he ran well sitting third before tiring at 100 to finish just behind the placegetters.
ray ford
Guest
The rail is a very good point, knowing what we know about The Heath. Firm ground can allow leaders to ping off the turns. So pattern early may provide how one treats this meeting. Rail huggers may be hard to catch. I rarely bet in the early races of a metro meeting. It can be a guide to how the track races for the rest of the day. Caution is implicit in the punters armery.
kv joef
Roar Guru
I take on board your comments Andrew but while Ray and James were talking about caulfield but i was referring to all tracks ... 18 starts clockwise for 8 wins-5 placings (44/72%) compared to 9 starts anti-clockwise for 2 wins blot (22/22%) but your point about her prep is valid - could see her having a bit of a drift tomorrow?
andrew
Guest
i think the stats on silent achiever are misleading a poor reason to dismiss her. two of those runs were in 1400m races. one was on the underwood where the entire field basically finished as they settled - nothing made ground at all. its a dundeel and atlantic jewel controlled the race from the front. the other was a good effort in the caul cup. her last run here over 1400m was entirely acceptable. I think its just one of things people look at in the formguide. my biggest concern is that james has said the melb cup was a goal for her, and thus is she be trained accordingly and could be a bit dour 2nd up.
kv joef
Roar Guru
nice heads-up about the rail james ... i seriously am getting sloppy.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
I might have a go at Star Rolling tomorrow. Likes Caulfield, no pace up front that i can see in the race. I love SA but she hasn't had a good time of things at Caulfield. Rail is out 9m so its going to be a long run for the swoopers.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Nice overview. And agree with ray about the minefield it offers. at first look i thought forteller should be about right. also thought Happy Trails looked ok but who knows how happy he still is after rehab (metaphorically speaking of coarse) :). As for The Offer, you would like to see him finishing this off at the rate of knots - personally i'm still not sure about him ... tomorrow may help me firm up one way or the other. as for the grey mare (i dare not utter her name!) other than to confirm ray's observation that she is twice as good clockwise (sydney) as she is anti-clockwise on all tracks. Arrrrrgh the spring ... doesn't it just give you hayfever :).
Aransan
Guest
Adam, you are probably right but Crackerjack King is the winner of $758k in Europe where the prize money is much less than here. He has had 2 starts after a break of 2 years and was beaten 3.8l in his last start in the Feehan. Horses tend to take a little longer to come good after such a long break, the question is whether he can reproduce his younger form. He has started at short prices in good European races and is very lightly raced for a 7y.o. He will be at good odds until he shows something but if he does return to form his odds will be much diminished. It depends on whether you like backing favourites or are prepared to take the odds about a lessor chance.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Crackerjack King will be lucky to win a country cup. Both runs this time in have been over unsuitable distances, but he has shown nothing for mine to warrant consideration.
andrew
Guest
tips only this week. best: trust in a gust, angels beach, triple gold others: supido, thinking of you, spillway, silent achiever, samaready over in adl: hussons shout, tildy lad in syd: toydini finally strikes a dry track and is good value. ive got the looks good value in the last too. moe: grane finds a winnable race.
Aransan
Guest
Crackerjack King was obviously a very good horse, he has had a break of nearly 2 years so may need more time yet. Set for the Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate?
ray ford
Guest
This years Underwood looks like punters a minefield, ageing horses that only rarely salute (happy tails & forteller) silent achevier: 4 attempts at the heath; never placed. New kids on the block; crackerjack & stipulate. Also thier is the possibilty of a very firm track by race 7. Acknoledging all this the id rate the race about $6.50 the field. That said Super cool is 3rd up tomorrow & he has always has contested angainst The Best around, so @ 40s he's worth a ticket.