On Thursday, FFA chief executive David Gallop announced, among other things, in his State of the Game address that “a 10-team competition is not big enough”.
Upon first reading this I disagreed for reasons I will come to later, but it leads to an important question that begs to be asked: what is the right size for the A-League?
Many of you who comment on articles here on The Roar have expressed opinions like Gallop’s, that we need more teams in the league, and some have stated that expansion should coincide with the implementation of the next TV rights deal in Season 13 (2017-18).
The various candidates have been championed by many and I don’t want to discuss them in this article.
Discussion about candidates for the A-League generally leads to a focus on which clubs should be included at the expense of the remaining candidates. This view is in my opinion problematic and to the detriment of the development of club football in Australia.
The main thrust of these opinions portrays expansion as the preferred model for the league’s future development and improving its quality. The general idea being that through more teams, there will be more games. That means longer seasons, more opportunities for footballers and increased revenue from TV rights deals.
The problem is that more is not always synonymous with better. More teams in the one league will spread the amount of top talent more thinly within each team, thus diluting the quality of football on display. That will eventually have an influence on the TV ratings, sponsorship, fan engagement and match day revenue.
It is also an exclusive point of view as to which teams deserve to play in the top league. At its very core, it is the subjective assessments by FFA that determine who is admitted. While Gallop and his staff may have done a lot of good things, wouldn’t you rather have your team’s ability to play in the A-League determined by whether they meet the on and off-field standards through playing the game?
As we have seen previously with the experiences of Gold Coast United, New Zealand Knights and North Queensland Fury, expansion hasn’t been without its failures.
So what model is an alternative to expanding the league? Well there could be a push towards having promotion and relegation implemented into the game at elite level. This is an idea that appeals to many.
I prefer the concept of promotion and relegation over expansion as it provides inclusiveness, a better chance of clubs achieving sustainability and stronger incentive to improve. To show this, here’s my concept of how the A-League should implement promotion and relegation.
First, I believe a 10-team competition with a finals series is a large enough group. This would also be the case for a second-tier competition. A finals series would follow, as well as a promotion and relegation series between the two leagues.
By implementing a second tier, all of the potential candidates currently being touted for admission to an expanded A-League would be included. Third Melbourne and Sydney teams, second teams in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane, and other areas like Wollongong, Canberra, North Queensland and maybe even a second New Zealand team in Auckland could be included.
The A-League Two would have lower standards in terms of administration, facilities, playing regulations and squad management in order to allow an easier entry point to professional football. However, upon winning promotion to A-League One, clubs would need to apply for an A-League One license and thus meet the required standards.
Both tiers would be subsidised by FFA through the TV rights deals along the lines of today’s arrangements so that transitioning between tiers is not a painful process. This could be achieved either through a separate A-League Two deal with TV networks or by combining A-League One and Two in a multi-network rights deal.
Currently, each team plays each other three times, yet many view the season as too short. While some advocate expanding the amount of teams to increase the number of games, I believe this can be solved by adding a fourth game to make it a 36-round competition.
Or we could remodel the league along the lines of some of the South American competitions that have in some cases two distinct competitions throughout the season – separating spring and autumn competitions. Exactly how this could be implemented in Australia is complex, but my point is that there are possible alternatives.
Thus, it is clearly possible to have a longer season that includes more games without simply expanding the amount of teams in the league.
Additionally, some readers who are either volunteer (like me) or semi-serious coaches of youth football teams will recognise that dividing the group into smaller sections based upon skill levels will actually lead to more improvement, more quickly. Having smaller groups is preferable because the players play and train with others at a similar level – blowouts are beneficial for neither team and undermine what is being taught.
Selection needs to be dynamic, allowing for more frequent assessment of players’ skills and creating continual challenges that match the players’ skill levels.
I believe this principle applies to the development of the A-League too. Therefore, in order to prolong the development, the idea is to implement two leagues of a smaller size (than would be the case with simple expansion) with a promotion and relegation system in place to allow movement between the leagues to keep them dynamic.
Some of the drawbacks I have heard with both extending the season and promotion-relegation are valid, but can be mitigated.
Would extending the season water down excitement or fan engagement? No. This is not necessarily a problem caused by more games, but more by more meaningless or poor quality games. Thus, the onus is on both administrators and the clubs to keep their football at a sufficiently high level.
Is there enough market demand for a second tier? There’s definitely not as much demand as there is for a top tier and sponsorships, TV ratings, marketing and game-day revenue may be lower for the second-tier. But this represents an opportunity to run a professional setup on a smaller scale.
The salary cap could be lower in A-League Two, the requirements for stadia and broadcasting could be lightened and the club’s administration could be simplified.
Will dropping down a league result in disastrous circumstances? This scenario is not unique to Australia and is part and parcel of almost all other sports globally. This shows it is possible to overcome. But it can be mitigated, similar to England’s competitions, whereby teams relegated receive ‘parachute payments’ from administrators in order to soften the blow.
So what do you think, Roarers? Am I talking complete rubbish or are there some pearls of genius among what you have just read? Do we still need more than 10 teams in the A-League? Or could we possibly go for a scenario like the one I have outlined?
Arto
Guest
@ Jason: You state the travel costs would be a bridge too far for teams - what are your figures to base this assertion on? I didn't raise the issue of when the HAL2 would be played as that was not something I gave much consideration to - I assumed it would be during the summer just like the HAL, so I'll leave that point there. You state there are so many reasons why this wouldn't work, yet I only count 3 so far: travel costs (yet to see a convincing argument), fixed costs (could be lower as a part of start-up and mitigated through contracts as explained above), and sponsorship & match-day revenue (again this is dependet upon how the HAL2 is promoted/marketed, as explained above). I'm not saying promotion/relegation is easy or a quick fix, but neither is expansion (as the 3 teams who have folded can attest to!), and if it's done right then it could be a huge success...
Arto
Guest
@ Woodo: I've heard this argument before, but never heard any facts to back this up... Just the same relatively short opinon which doesn't really explain why this would be the case... How big is enough & why? What metrics does your opinion work on? Where is the evidence of this in similar cases?
Arto
Guest
@ Tambo: IMO, the majority of your comment refers mostly to increasing the number of games - you advocate expansion for this, but as I wrote in my article this is somewhat of a separate issue, you can increase the number of games without increasing the number of teams (even if there's neither promotion/relegation or expansion!). You assert that expansion can only be good, focusing upon the fixed cost argument, but you missed completely my reference to a diluting of player talent amount the teams - you might get a 'sugar-rush' in the tv rights deals by them increasing for the coming period, but what happens if the amount of poor quality games increases due to the comp not being able to sustain the quality level between the teams (by increasing the amount of teams, unless there is a comparative increase in playing talent numbers the talent just gets more thinly spread out, thus weakening the teams across the board and ultimately decreasing the quality of the football on display). The tv rights deal after that is bound to be less given the poorer bargaining position of the league as fans have been put off by poor quality football! By separating the leagues, this scenario is mitigated - yes, HAL2 is perceived as weaker and won't get the same revenue for tv rights, but the funny thing about competition is that people are most interested in it when it's even. How many of the people on here have been raving on about how one of the greatest strengths of the HAL is that it is an even league (more even compared with the EPL, LA Liga, Bundesliga, etc.)??!! There may be less people following a HAL2, but they will be very enthusiastic followers nonetheless!!! :-) "Anyone who thinks promo and relegation is a the way to go probably don’t work in business or aren’t very good at their jobs" I'll turn the other cheek on his barb, and forgive you this insult! ;-)
Arto
Guest
@ Jason: The references to smaller scale are more in terms of lowering those fixed costs - do the HAL2 clubs really need the same level of fixed costs as HAL1? As for relegation, whilst there will still be a number of fixed costs that are carried over from HAL1, this simply requires better financial planning. The point you make about contracts can also serve my opinion - that a club can include in their contracts for an eventual relegation (eg: perhaps agree a lower stadium fee with the operators? Players' wages are structured around incentives & performances rather than a standard base salary, etc.). Sponosrship revenue will most likely take a hit, but that might be mitigated by the way FFA promotes/handles the HAL2 - for instance say SBS or ABC get more games, then will a club's exposure diminish that much? I agree that an HAL2 would require FFA to subsidize the clubs - something I actually stated in my original article - and I would suggest it's along the lines of today's practice of covering the Salary Cap (albeit a reduced one eg: $1.25M to propose a figure). It may also have to help in other ways via engaging Corporate Australia on behalf of the clubs or providing platforms for the clubs & Corporate Australia to meet one another. They could also help by relaxing some of the criteria they have for HAL1 clubs so that HAL2 clubs can operate on a lower cost-base - of course requiring the promoted clubs to meet those HAL1 criteria in order to move up a level...
Arto
Guest
@ Jason: I see your points, and to be honest I initially thought the same thing about promotion/relegation when it was first being suggested. Clubs are definitely struggling at present to make profits and for some clubs (eg: SFC) it seems as though breaking even isn't as high a priority as one might expect. However, EVERY club needs to be run by sound economic principals to stay in existance and promotion/relegation does not change this. Promotion/relegation DOES make it more of a riskier task given that budgeting and financial planning become more flexible and require more risk mitigation. However, the same processes SHOULD be in place today and the basic principle of "cutting your suit to your cloth" will always be required in all professional activities. I don't have as pessimistic view of the game as you do - call me deluded or not in the know, perhaps - but some of the criteria you set are for me higher than what would be required (eg: 20-30K crowd averages - most leagues around the world outside of the big Euorpean leagues are no where near that and they manage to sustain several divisions of professional/semi-professional football). Plus, I don't mean to give the impression that promotion/relegation needs to be implemented now - it could be something that the planning for is started now and is implemented within the next 5 or so years, perhaps. And as a final point, I think it's important to believe this is realistic - I doubt there were many people who believed it possible to have ADP come play in the HAL prior to him signing, and whilst that is a lot less complex task the principle is the same; you need to be ambitious to make the big deals become a reality.
Arto
Guest
@ Justin Mahon: +1!! Good points that you raise and are additional points to take with the article! :-)
Arto
Guest
@ Fussball ist unser leben: +1!! Thanks for the good feedback, Fuss! As you say, there's no reason why we can't have both scenarios play out - expansion AND promotion/relagation.
JP
Guest
Actually, Josh, I agree with you. I'm for expansion and I would love to see a team in Wollongong. Where my opinion may differ is the timeline for expansion to take place. I think we're still 4-5 years away, or perhaps more if they're to introduce two more teams at the same time, which I think is the better way to go. I like the name Wollongong Wolves and would prefer it to return. One thing that does concern me though is the location. WIN Stadium is great, except for the fact it looks terrible on TV with no grandstand on the far side, which I understand will never be possible. It's a small thing but it does matter.
Josh
Guest
I disagree to a certain point JP. The Wolves feature regularly in the news in Wollongong, when Josep came on and said 'this area needs an A League team' it was news news news. I would happily bet you'll instantly see 10k crowds, it's an area that really wants it's own team, since they 'kind of' lost the Illawarra Steelers they haven't had anything apart from a basketball team to call theirs To me the only argument is what to call them when they're here, the Wollongong Wolves or South Coast Wolves. Their active supporters already have the best name in the country 'the wolfpack' (I love it). I wonder if the 'ours is the steel city' rivalry will resurface...
TJ
Guest
I think first things first is that there needs to be some open public evaluation of the best expansion sides going forward. Perhaps one great way of seeing what clubs hold the most promise could be to run a dummy AL2 alongside the main league for the next couple of years, having the larger club sides within state leagues compete in a mini season, basically an expansion of the NPL only as an actual competition and not just a playoff series. The key difference being though that teams taking part would be included not on the basis of one good year, but on good supporter bases. From this I imagine we would get a better sense of who is ready for an AL1 spot, then take a couple of them in as expansion with the new tv rights deal, with the other successful ones that miss out, shelved as future possibilities. I really think that admits all the speculation the only way we will ever know who is good for a spot in the league is threw trying, and so until we have a full scale AL2 going, perhaps a mini version might be the best option.
JP
Guest
The league definitely needs to be expanded at some point but we also cannot rush into it. Planning must be done several years in advance, well ahead of a new club entering the league. Western Sydney was a one-off. It won't happen that easy again. FFA need to learn from mistakes of the past and I think they are. Gallop seems to understand that they can't rush these things and consolidating what we already have is very important. 12 teams should be the next step but I think we're still a few years away from that. As I said though, planning must be a 2-3 year process, not a 6-12 month rush job. Deciding where those next two clubs are to be based is only half the battle too. As for Pro/Rel, it's not a realistic option for a variety of reasons. Maybe one day, but not for a while yet. We discussed this in more depth on the A-League subreddit if you'd like to have a read. http://www.reddit.com/r/Aleague/comments/2gwz9r/which_way_forward_for_the_aleague_promotion_and/
Euan Sutherland
Guest
Promotion and relegation are not feasible in Australian operating conditions. Ownership of clubs world become even more of a gamble and the distance between venues would would be problematic for newly promoted clubs with a miniscule supporter base. The home grounds of non-A-League would also be a problem.
Arto
Guest
@ Griffo: After reading the comments on here so far, it seems clear that HAL1 will indeed be a more attractive league with more teams so a 12-14-16 team comp might be the way to go. Having watched the past decade of the local elite-level league here in Norway, though I warn people not to expect the world of increasing the amount of teams in the league as it has definitely had negative consequences on the competition here (and it's the #1 SPORT - not just code - here!!!). If the talent pool can't provide enough good players to support more teams then the entertainment and attraction value of the sport goes downhill - especially when in today's society there are so many alternative attractions competing for consumers' attention & money!
Arto
Guest
@ Griffo: That's right it might be quite a nasty sting to those HAL2 clubs, and maybe even invite the prospect of litigation if they disagree that much with the governing body....
Arto
Guest
@ Gurudoright: This is a good point and one which I was probably a bit light on when I was thinking about it in my article. I remember nordster (of anti-regualtion and pro-free market fame!!) talking about how travel costs are not such a big factor as people might think- at least in comparison with some of the other costs that the HAL teams have, so therefore I didn't see it being such a factor in implementing an HAL2. It would be great if someone on here has some figures to discuss?? One possible way this could be mitigated in an HAL2 scenario is to divide the HAL2 into regions in a similar way to the lower league systems of continental Europe - although this might cause more problems than it solves as this would obviously require even more teams to be involved and thus increase the complexity fof the task...
Arto
Guest
Thanks for the positive feedback, people - it's always appreciated! So far the comments have raised a couple of good points that my article neglected and it seems to be as even as I thought it would be in terms of expansion or promotion/relegation as the way to go. Keep the comments coming and who knows, maybe we'll have something to contribute to Gallop's grand project that he launched on Thursday!! ;-)
Paul Nicholls
Roar Guru
Agree 100% AZ. A slow and steady increase to 18 teams over a period of about ...30 years. Crikey I might be in a nursing home by then!
Paul Nicholls
Roar Guru
- 10 teams is not enough. We need 12 so we could get a 33 game season which is only one less than Bundesliga (I think) - an A2 League is basically a 100% expansion of professional football in one season. To say that it is somehow different from expansion is incorrect - what we need is gradual expansion 2 teams at a time from areas not currently covered by A-League franchises. The teams would need to play out of their own quality stadiums and would need to be able to fit 20,000 for a big match. - basically I belive we have plenty of talent to support a much bigger competition, we just don't have the stadium infrastructure or population
Gurudoright
Guest
My main problem with relegation despite the financial cost is the loss off fans. I know this isn't comparing apples with apples, but I can't help to think of rugby league's Newtown Jets and North Sydney Bears. Both proud club who still play but now in the 2nd tier competition. Their crowds are a fraction of what they were when they played in the top league and with many of their supporters abandoning the game when these teams no longer played in the top league. I fear this for teams like the Mariners and Nixs.
Chris
Guest
I really like this article. Arto is right in that there are a lot of things to deal with. I personally agree with Fussball - expansion, then P/R. The point made in the comments about the different league timings is a concern as well. Overall, P/R is a longer term goal for football in Australia, which is why expansion will get the nod in my opinion. HOWEVER, I do believe that, with time, promotion and relegation can become a viable alternative.