NRL preliminary finals by the stats: It's going to be tough and close

After one of the best weekends of rugby league in recent memory, we are here. The penultimate round of the NRL competition is about to kick off and each team could realistically make the grand final.

The Rabbitohs versus the Roosters
ANZ Stadium, 7:55pm, Friday 28 September

The History
This is the 232nd game between these sides, dating back to 1908. The Rabbitohs have won 120 to the Roosters 105. There have been six draws. The last ten games have seen the Roosters win six. It is the tenth game between these sides at this venue and the Roosters also have a 6-3 advantage there.

In Round 1 this year the Rabbitohs smashed the premiers 28-8 in an emphatic display. However, the Roosters turned the tables in Round 26, racing out to a 22-2 lead by the 51st minute. Try as the Rabbitohs might they couldn’t haul that lead in.

This is the eighth time these two coaches have faced off. The first three times was when Maguire was in charge of Wigan and Robinson in charge of Catalans. The overall record stands 4-3 in Robinson’s favour.

MORE NRL Finals:
» Full NRL Finals team lists, match information
» GURU: Finals are entertaining, but a tipster’s nightmare
» South Sydney vs Sydney Roosters full preview
» PRENTICE: Prowling Panthers to defy the odds again

Margins
The Roosters have won a whopping 9 games in 2014 by margins of 13+. However, that pales to the Rabbitohs 14 games won by 13+. The Roosters have lost two by 13+ margins – one of which was to the Rabbitohs – whereas the Rabbitohs only big loss this season was their Round 10 defeat to the Storm.

Both sides have played 13 games against the sides that finished in the top eight this year and both won seven and lost six. And here is the freaky thing. If you add up all their scores in those matches the predicted score for this game is 19.5 a piece. So the stats indicate this will be a close one.

Defence
The Rabbitohs defence has been second to none in 2014. While their ‘roadkill’ cry might have alarmed a few people, it is certainly accurate. They have conceded the least points in 2014 on the back of missing the fewest tackles and conceding the least line breaks.

The Rabbitohs miss five fewer tackles than the Roosters a game and they’ve conceded 14 fewer line breaks than the boys from Bondi.

As well, the Roosters concede 40 more metres a game and one extra penalty. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has given away 29 penalties this year, which is seven more than serial offender James Maloney has managed.

The worst for the Rabbitohs is Sam Burgess with 16.

Maloney is again featured in the missed tackle stats. He misses 3.3 on average a game. His halves partner Mitchell Pearce misses 2.5. Issac Luke is the Bunnies worst with 2.6 misses but they aren’t nearly as costly as Maloney’s.

Attack
There is barely a struck match between these sides in attack. The Roosters have scored a solitary try more than the Rabbits this season. Only the Warriors have scored more tries than these two sides this year.

The Rabbitohs have conceded two tries less than the Roosters and these are the top-two ranked sides for that stat. They are also ranked one and two for line breaks and tackle breaks with virtually nothing between them over the whole season. They are only ranked third and fourth for metres gained with the Roosters averaging two more metres a game.

Alex Johnson, Greg Inglis and Dylan Walker might just shade Minichello, Tuivasa-sheck and Kenny-Dowall for tries this year but the latter trio arguably have more finals experience. Of the top five metre eaters on the park, four of them are Bunnies. Tuivasa-Sheck (147) sits in between Sam Burgess and Greg Inglis (both averaging 150+) and Sam’s brothers George (136) and Thomas (118). The best forwards for the Roosters are Cordner and Sonny Bill, who both average 116.

The Danger Men
I’m really going to miss Sam Burgess next year. A player who has made 12 line breaks, 53 offloads, 66 tackle breaks, scored 10 tries, and averaged 157.5 metres while making 34 tackles is my sort of player.

Greg Inglis has been there and done that. His 12 line break assists, 10 try assists, 17 line breaks, 106 tackle breaks and 10 tries – along with an average of 150.6 metres a game – see him as a superstar of the game.

Keary and Reynolds are starting to create quite the partnership. While Keary only has five try assists to his name so far, his live wire play has enabled Reynolds to concentrate on guiding his side around the park.

Alex Johnson reminds me a great deal of Blake Ferguson because of his size, speed and freakish abilities. Unlike Blake, Alex has managed to stay on the paddock and to score 19 tries so far this season.

Boyd Cordner, Aidan Guerra and Sonny Bill Williams make up one of the most dangerous back rows I’ve ever seen. While they share 50 errors this season, they also boast a combined 127 tackle breaks. Sonny Bill is well overdue for a big game.

Daniel Tupou has scored many of his 10 tries this season by contesting high balls. With the Souths defensive line so strong you can expect that old bull Lote Tuquiri will be tested out by the young bull Daniel.

Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney have 29 line break assists and 35 try assists, 22 line breaks and 11 tries between them. If the Bunnies let them get their confidence up they could wreak havoc.

Who is going to win and why?
Could this be the game where the Rabbits actually make it through? Or will they choke for the third year running? The stats say that this one is too close to call.

The Rabbits have the better defence but history tells us that these matches are won through audacious attack, not saved by stoic defence.

The Roosters look the more experienced side but are they more hungry? And will they continue to make high numbers of errors and lose concentration in patches of the game?

Those things almost cost them last week when they were in what seemed like an unassailable position. My gut says the Rabbits but the stats say the Roosters have the better focus when it matters.

Roosters by 2

Panthers versus Bulldogs
ANZ Stadium, 7:55pm, Saturday 27 September

The History
This will be the 95th game between these two sides going back to 1967 when the Panthers entered the NSWRL. It stands at 54 to 37 in the Bulldogs favour, with three draws. ANZ Stadium is nominally the Bulldogs home ground but against the Panthers they’ve only won three of the 11 games played here.

The most recent game at this venue was in Round 21 and resulted in a 22-16 win to the Panthers. The victory was actually a fair bit more emphatic than that score line suggests as the Panthers led 22-0 at the 66th minute mark, with all the Bulldogs points coming in junk time.

In the Round 3 encounter it was a last minute try to Kevin Naiqama and conversion from Matt Moylan that won it for the Panthers.

The coaches of these two sides have faced off 15 times with the clipboards in their hands, with Des Hasler having an 11-4 advantage. However, Ivan Cleary has had the bragging rights following the last two encounters.

Field goals
Both these teams are no strangers to tight finishes this year with them having been in ten matches between them that were decided by a single point. The Dogs have won four games by a field goal and lost one.

The Panthers have won three by a field goal and lost two. While Trent Hodkinson is the Bulldogs go-to man when it comes to the one pointers, both Ennis and Reynolds have potted one each this year.

For the Panthers, Jamie Soward has been receiving all the plaudits for his last minute winner against the Roosters but Matt Moylan has been the main man for Penrith with field goals. He has three to his name this year and Soward only has the one.

Margins
The chances are 66 per cent that this game will be decided by a margin of 12 points or less. While both sides have won a fair few matches this year by 13+ margins, only the Dogs’ two big wins against the Storm were against sides that finished in the top eight.

The Panthers have not put a top side to the sword at all in 2014.

The Bulldogs played five more matches against sides that finished in the top eight this year than the Panthers, winning seven and losing eight. The Panthers played ten, winning as many as they lost. If the two sides for and against when playing top eight sides is averaged out the Bulldogs will win this match 24 to 18.

Defence
There are two key defensive stats that separate these two sides. Firstly, the Panthers miss 5.5 more tackles a match on average than the Dogs. Secondly, the Dogs concede 80 more metres a game than the Panthers.

Both sides concede about 3.5 line breaks each a match and give away around 7 penalties. For the Panthers, Will Smith misses 3.3 tackles on average a match and the Dogs forwards will have him in their sights.

Jamie Soward misses 2.5 on average but that has come down from 3 earlier in the season as his defensive play has improved. Josh Reynolds is the biggest liability for the Dogs, averaging 2.8 misses a match.

Where penalties are concerned James Segeyaro is almost guaranteed to give at least one away in this game. So far this season he’s conceded 26 personally, second only this season to Waerea-Hargreaves. Michael Ennis comes in as the fifth worst offender in 2014 with his 19 conceded.

Attack
Once again there are only two statistics that separate these sides in attack. Penrith have scored nine more trys than the Dogs this season from one fewer match. As well, the Panthers break two more tackles a game. 

Apart from that both sides’ line breaks and metres made are almost identical. For the Dogs Corey Thompson’s 16 tries and Tim Lafai’s 12 see them as danger men. Segeyaro, Mansour and Moylan are an increasingly dangerous try scoring trio who boast 14, 13 and 10 respectively.

Josh Mansour’s average of 162 metres a game make him the highest metre-eater on the paddock. However, the next three best are Graham (123), Perrett (122) and Tolman (121).

The Danger Men
Jamie Soward has confounded so many of us this year. When I heard that Gould and Cleary had signed him I had no idea what they were thinking.

His amazing kicking game is now getting comparable to the likes of Andrew Johns, Peter Sterling and Ricky Stuart. His 17 try assists have been pretty good too.

Matt Moylan has been touted as a likely Kangaroo call up on the back of his great 2014 form. His 16 line break assists, 14 try assists, 10 line breaks, 65 tackle breaks, 8 tries and averages of 105.5 metres a game make him a man the Dogs must stop. Josh Mansour’s 162 metres, 136 tackle breaks and 15 tries are pretty damn good too.

James Segeyaro’s 72 tackle breaks and 10 tries have been more than handy. However, what is most impressive is that Segeyaro now averages over 70 minutes game time a match.

Plum, Docker and Lewis Brown – meat and potatoes forwards if ever you’ve seen some. Problem for the Dogs is that those honest toilers are playing superb, hard footy and they care nothing for reputations.

James Graham and Aidan Tolman are a brutal front row combination. Both make 120+ metres a game and Graham plays over 70 minutes each match. They will test the Panthers pack in a big way.

Tony Williams looked the most interested that I’ve seen him in quite a while last week. His five tackle breaks and 175 metres against Manly could be bad tidings for Penrith.

Tim Lafai is the next big thing in the centres. His 14 tries, 92 tackle breaks and 12 line breaks for the year so far are superb stats.

Josh Reynolds is a player I make no apology for loving. The bloke competes. Sure, he has a brain explosion or two and he is a total niggler, but he plays hard.

If he was aiming for the ref with that kick last week then it was super skilful. He is capable of the big plays when they count.

Who is going to win and why?
Last week the Bulldogs got off to a flier against the Sea Eagles but then were unable to go on with the job. It could be that they just don’t have the killer punch required when it matters.

Penrith don’t stop fighting until the fighting is done. If the Dogs don’t put them away early then they’ll be in trouble.

However, each year after Round 10 I run my stats algorithm that works out the season’s likely premier.

In 2012 it predicted the Storm. Last year it predicted the Roosters. This year it couldn’t separate Manly and the Dogs.

Canterbury separated themselves in the 84th minute last week. Mix that with the above predicted score of 24-18 for the Bulldogs and the fact that I can’t quite believe the Panthers have made it this far with such a no frills – although committed – side and I’m favouring the Dogs to win a tight one.

Canterbury 1-12.