There is little to separate the Hawks and Swans. Both finished the home-and-away season with 17 wins, a percentage difference of less than two.
Both clubs are finals-hardened, with three and four grand final appearances in a decade, both are lauded for their cultures, and both were viewed similarly by the umpires in 2014 (96 Brownlow votes to the Swans versus 91 to the Hawks).
The Swans might have more stars (Lance Franklin 22 and Josh Kennedy receiving 21 Brownlow votes, versus Jordan Lewis’ 15), but the Hawks have slightly better depth (18 Brownlow vote-getters, versus 14).
Both teams are at full strength, with fitness doubts appearing even (Cyril Rioli’s hamstring versus Sam Reid’s knee).
Based on talent and performance, there’s precious little separating these two teams.
Victory, therefore, might come down to any advantage gained above the shoulders. And this is where the Hawks win.
The Swans are rightly revered for their Bloods culture and never-say-die attitude. But I sense a slight erosion of these attributes in 2014 as the Bondi Billionaires have created two classes of Swans when only one previously existed. Consequently, there appears a slight abdication of responsibility among some players who now expect ‘Buddy will win this for us’.
The Hawks, on the other hand, are mentally revelling in their underdog status. Whether you call it revenge or unfinished business, the players are driven by a burning desire to even the ledger for 2012, when the underdog Swans won.
There is another factor driving the Hawks players. No teammate begrudged Buddy when he left the Hawks for a cheque that couldn’t be refused. But when Buddy stated at his first press conference that he joined the Swans to “win more premierships”, he insulted his prior teammates by implying they were not good enough.
They now have a point to prove: “If you wanted to win premierships old Bud, you should have stayed with us.”
There is good reason why Hawks fans boo Buddy but applaud Kennedy and Ben McGlynn – because no one likes to be insulted by an old friend.
There will be no remnants of that friendship on Saturday afternoon. Buddy should be nervous if Hodge is anywhere near him.
The Hawks have the advantage above the shoulders.
Auld Kodjer
Roar Rookie
Tommy, my stock market insight is as good as my footy tips: I only ever get 50% right. I was lucky enough to be taught finance by Dick Brierley, as in the co-author of the Corporate Finance bible by Brierley & Myers. I can still remember him saying - to every students shock - that he never invested in the stock market. He called it a "random walk that no rational man could predict". And for the record, I have great respect for both Buddy and the Swans. Buddy grew up in the wheatbelt of WA not too far from me, so I consider him "one of ours", much like I did Doug Green (East Fremantle and South Melbourne champion), when I was a boy. I just told it as I saw it - a view held by many Hawthorn fans I talked to.
Penster
Guest
His team bonding sessions at team mates' bbq's were legendary.
Jon Biesse
Guest
That was the most prescient article of the whole week. Congrats Michael.
tommy
Guest
picked it like a dirty nose Michael! what are your thoughts on the stock market on Monday?
Johnk
Guest
Yeh lol that's here name, stupid fat fingers/iPhone spell corrector.
Mango Jack
Guest
Paty pooper. You've just spoilt Michael's "narrative".
Brian
Guest
Yeah go back to your multi-million dollar bondi pad, your dream AFL job and your model girlfriend... that's gotta hurt.
Brian
Guest
Agreed he was certainly good in 2013 though not as good as this year. It also understandable that he was down on form in his last year at the club very similar to Ablett's form for Geelong in 2010. The one incident I do have doubts on is how he (it looked intentionally) got himself suspended from the 1st Final in 2013 against Sydney as if helping his new team rather then his existing one. It never became an issue as we thrashed them without Buddy but if Sydney had won that Final we would be a lot more dirty on Buddy.
Don Freo
Guest
OOH! Who holds a grudge?
Brian
Guest
I don't get where this big stage theory comes from. In 9 years at Hawthorn in big games Buddy was booed the most and yet his performances in the 2008 and 2013 were on the whole underwhelming. His best GF was 2012 but he went missing at the end when it was there to be won. Don't get me wrong he was worthy of playing all those games but he certainly wasn't dominant. Are people somehow saying his 3 previous GF weren't on the big stage.
Mark
Guest
Jesinta Campbell?
Mark
Guest
Exactly this
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Ironically, his best GF came against the Swans in 2012. He was highest goal-kicker on the day with 3.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Correct. One of 22. They will pay him special mention and focus in the rooms, but, are aware there are 21 other players that could win it. I will say it again, Tippett is the danger man. If Gibson ends up playing on Tippett, Kurt may get the better of him. Gibson's strength is spoiling but if Tippett gets some good delivery, Gibson won't have a chance. That is where with shorter Buddy, more likely to take marks closer to chest, Gibson is more likely to have an advantage. Lake is the taller and a bit more bulky, hence his preferred matchup on Tippett. iThe midfield will undoubtedly give supply to their forwards at either end. I believe the key to either team winning, will be isolation of forwards and therefore the defence stretched thin.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
I agree. Also, if reports are true he was doing talks after the Swans had just won the Premiership. And must I remind Hawks supporters, he played very well last year in a different role. He never faltered and played some key moments over the years for them. I understand frustration there. But, to boo Buddy is a dangerous thing. I believe in a game earlier this year someone tried the same thing. Buddy ended up kicking 5.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Still managed to win the Coleman...
TD
Guest
Of course you would say that to his face
TD
Guest
Wayne Carey - the ultimate man to talk about teams and teammates.....shouldn't even be allowed near the afl.....rolemodel.com
Jayme Markus
Roar Guru
The average age of the Sydney list in 2014 is 24.78 which is the second oldest in the competition behind Fremantle (Sydney had the oldest in 2013). Hawthorn have an average age 24.47 which is the fifth oldest (they were third oldest in 2013). By calling Buddy 'the faceless man' he was pointing out he was just another opposition player now, not sure what is stupid about that.
Jim
Guest
I do think the comment was more a jibe at GWS than Hawthorn Gremlins - I don't think he meant it in that way at all. It was clear last year that Clarkson either knew Buddy was going, or (more likely given the calibre of Clarkson's coaching) made a proactive decision to lessen the focus on Buddy - which clearly worked and has continued to work this year.