Why Penrith will dare to dream for another week

The penultimate weekend of finals footy has arrived and who would have scripted this at the start of the year? The fourth placed Penrith Panthers continue to defy all the conventions associated with a club in injury crisis.

They play seventh placed Canterbury Bulldogs, who arguably have had the greatest roller coaster ride of any team in 2014. Having put themselves in minor premiership contention, they imploded midway through the year to limp into the finals.

The Bulldogs then continued to con NRL supporters with two fantastic victories over Melbourne and Manly.

This match pits together two chalk and cheese coaches in Des “The Mad Professor” Hasler and Ivan “The Master of Disaster” Cleary.

Des, with his huff and puff approach calling out anyone who dares suggest his team are the favourites and loving to play off the siege mentality. Cleary, who’s approach has been to remain cool and calm under an injury crisis most experts would have us believe is impossible to overcome.

Hasler enjoys an 11-4 record over Cleary, including the 2011 grand final win, but Cleary has won both encounters this year.

Canterbury come into this game virtually at full strength, only missing Sam Kasiano along with fringe players Tim Browne, Chase Stanley, Pat O’Hanlon and Lloyd Perrett. Their side is a very similar one to the side that went down narrowly to the Panthers back in Round 3.

That day the side was missing Mitch Brown, Greg Eastwood and Reni Maitua. Conversely, the Panthers are missing six from that win including David Simmons, Isaac John, Tim Grant, Tyrone Peachey and Elijah Taylor. On top of that the Panthers are also missing Peter Wallace and Bryce Cartwright.

The Bulldogs have every right to feel confident this Saturday, seeing the turnaround in the relative strengths of each team’s 17 along with the momentum Hasler’s team has generated in a short space of time.

Having said that it is too easy to dismiss the Panthers altogether, despite the enormity of the task ahead. They deserve credit for being able to not only qualify for the top four but to come out and stay with the defending premiers for 80 minutes in their own backyard. It speaks volumes for the character of this team.

Whether or not they played their grand final that night remains to be seen, but on the positive side the Panthers would have relished the week off and will come in refreshed. The Panthers have played four of their last five games against top eight opposition, winning three of those games. The Bulldogs have played three top eight teams, winning their last two games.

For all the Bulldogs’ pluses, they should have won the game against Manly a lot easier than they did. Having led 16-0 inside the first 20 minutes and chalking up five line breaks on the back of 57 per cent possession in the first half, they only managed to lead a weakened Manly side by 10 points.

Had Jamie Lyon converted from the sideline late in the second half, we could well have been talking how Penrith will be playing Manly this weekend.

The Bulldogs’ strengths lie in their forwards ability to roll down field, churn up the big metres and rack up the tackle breaks and offloads required to give their outside backs the chance to cause havoc on the fringes. Tim Lafai has had a stellar year on the right side with 14 tries to his name, and with his ability to bust the line the Panthers’ left edge – Jamie Soward, Jamal Idris and Josh Mansour will need to be on alert.

Equally on the left hand side, Tony Williams has been at his barnstorming best in recent weeks and Sika Manu, Will Smith, Dean Whare and Watene-Zelezniak will have their work cut out for them.

For Penrith their attack comes down to three players who make up the SMS – Soward, Moylan and James Segeyaro. It all starts in the middle with the Penrith hooker having to get momentum happening through the rucks. His 10 tries to date is the first time a hooker has scored more than 10 in successive years.

Then it will come down to the Jamie Soward-Matt Moylan combination and how dangerous they can both be on both sides of the ruck. Whether it’s that angled run that Moylan loves to go on outside Soward or the sweeping right-side play to create the extra man for Whare or Watene-Zelezniak, the Bulldogs will need to guard for such plays or will get burnt accordingly.

Bulldog Frank Pritchard comes up against his former side for the fourth time having just the one win to his name while at Penrith. Jamal Idris also comes up against his former team for the fourth time having won all three previous games.

The Panthers don’t enjoy the greatest of records overall against the Bulldogs, winning just 37 from 94 games. But of the 43 games played away from home, of which Penrith have won just 16, seven of those wins have come from 11 games played at ANZ Stadium. Furthermore Penrith enjoys a two from two finals record at ANZ, including that fantastic 2003 grand final win over the Roosters.

In terms of for-and-against in 2014, Penrith are superior in both categories – 525 versus 494 in attack and 444 versus 460 in defence. The Bulldogs have disappointed at home in 2014, with a six from 12 record, while Penrith away have won seven and lost six.

The question for this game comes back to whether the Panthers largely inexperienced up-and-coming stars and depth can cope with another highly intense finals game. The question for the Bulldogs is how well they can handle expectancy from fans and the media.

The Panthers, unlike the Bulldogs, come into this clash with little expected of them. While most outside fans and experts continue to write off the Panthers, the “believe to achieve” mantra installed into a refreshed playing group might just be enough to keep fans daring to dream for another week.

Prediction: Panthers by 4