On Friday night, the world’s best sprinter, Lankan Rupee, was beaten for a second time in two starts at Moonee Valley this spring. Both times Lankan Rupee was an odds-on favourite.
Immediately after Friday’s Moir Stakes (1200m, Group 1, weight-for-age), viewers of TVN were told that trainer Mick Price was in deep conversation with jockey Craig Newitt.
Both gave a similar explanation for the defeat. Lankan Rupee is not the same horse at Moonee Valley.
After trouncing Rebel Dane and Buffering in an all-the-way TJ Smith (1200m, Group 1, weight-for-age) victory at Randwick during April’s inaugural Championships, Lankan Rupee was quite clearly the best sprinter in the world.
Yet on Friday, Lankan Rupee was beaten by Buffering and had to hang on grimly to hold second from Rebel Dane.
The Moonee Valley excuse may have some validity – it’s where a third of his nine defeats have come and Lankan Rupee wouldn’t be the first horse to be consistently below his best at the tight circuit – but I don’t think it tells the whole story. And it’s something I’ll later explain.
That TJ Smith victory on a Heavy 9 track followed supremely dominant victories in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m, Group 1) and Oakleigh Plate (1100m, Group 1, handicap) on good tracks.
Lankan Rupee had become the only horse in history to complete the Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket Handicap and TJ Smith treble. The Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap have histories that date back to the 19th century but the TJ Smith has only been run 18 times.
In any event, by becoming the 11th horse to complete the Oakleigh Plate-Newmarket double Lankan Rupee joined revered company that includes Malua, Wakeful, Placid Ark and Schillaci. It’s one of the few clubs in Australian sprinting history that Black Caviar doesn’t hold membership to.
Entering the 2014/2015 season in August, five-year-old Lankan Rupee was the best horse in Australian racing. Yet at the end of the spring eight months earlier, Lankan Rupee could only boast a single Group 3 victory and would not have been ranked in the top 80 horses in the country.
Everything pointed in the direction of a shooting star.
Lankan Rupee returned earlier this month with defeat in the McEwen (1000m, Group 2, weight-for-age). After drawing wide, Lankan Rupee was exposed outside the lead and was run-down by the talented mare Angelic Light, who had enjoyed a glorious smother behind the speed. Angelic Light was second-up off a 15-month spell.
Before her injury-enforced layoff Angelic Light had a Group 1 second as a three-year-old filly behind Platelet in Adelaide. Now on the comeback trail she had lowered the colours of the best sprinter in the world at weight-for-age.
On Friday night, in the Moir Stakes, Angelic Light finished a close-up fourth behind last season’s TJ Smith top three.
As Australian racing’s focus slowly turns to Super Saturday and four Group 1s this weekend, the pain of another shock defeat surely hasn’t departed the Lankan Rupee camp.
Lankan Rupee is not bombproof. Once again he was asked by Craig Newitt to race outside the leader at Moonee Valley. And once again he was defeated at the sprinting caper. Remember, no-one on earth is meant to be better at it than him.
Lankan Rupee’s connections would love the idea of their superstar avoiding Moonee Valley for the rest of his career. But Australian racing’s ridiculous calendar ensures there are another two Friday night 1200-metre Group 1s to be held at the circuit this season.
Lankan Rupee, a gelding, will be fronting up again at the Valley very soon. In the Manikato Stakes (1200m, Group 1, weight-for-age), on October 24, the eve of Cox Plate day, there is a chance for Lankan Rupee to set his Moonee Valley record straight.
For suffering racing fans who have had to endure the early retirements of so many favourite horses as well as carefully-mapped programmes that are often intended to protect the stud value of the best colts, it is refreshing, and very exciting, to know a possible champion will be given the chance to dispel the chink in his armour.
For the first time, I am excited by the prospect of more 1200m Group 1 races at Moonee Valley.
Because he is a gelding, racing was always going to be the winner with Lankan Rupee. Yet, as a neutral observer (albeit a fan of Lankan Rupee), I can’t help but think he should have been the winner of the Moir Stakes.
As I said at the top, the Moonee Valley excuse has some validity but it doesn’t sit well with me. Better tactics would have given Lankan Rupee a better shot at victory.
As usual, Lankan Rupee began brilliantly on Friday night. He was the clear leader after 50 metres. With the advantage of the inside rail, Newitt should not have relinquished the lead to Buffering so easily, if at all.
It was made abundantly clear by Rob Heathcote, trainer of Buffering, on the TVN coverage that his horse would try to control proceedings from the front and the success of that tactic would determine Buffering’s fate on the night.
As he did in the TJ Smith, Newitt should have allowed Lankan Rupee to run in the lead. The horse is incredibly valiant and with the use of the inside rail, would have proven much tougher to shirk.
Instead Newitt gifted Buffering the lead and showed very little respect to Buffering by sitting a length off him. Newitt must have forgotten that Buffering also won three Group 1s last season. Each of them was won at weight-for-age. Buffering needs no favours yet he was not pressured in the first half of the race.
Newitt saved Lankan Rupee for the last 600 metres. As he did first-up, Lankan Rupee didn’t handle the Moonee Valley bend with much proficiency. He was off-balance and under pressure on straightening.
One-hundred metres later he was struggling. And on the line Lankan Rupee was beaten by a tenth of a length yet was as close to first as he was to the fast-finishing Rebel Dane in third. Second best is a fair summary.
Buffering fought bravely to hang on for a narrow victory. He now has four 1200m Group 1 victories. Each of them has been recorded at weight-for-age and by a combined margin of just over a length.
The seven-year-old deserves every accolade he gets. If Lankan Rupee is the best sprinter in the world, then Buffering can’t be too far behind.
Newitt rode Lankan Rupee like he was Black Caviar. The expectation, seemingly, was that an electric acceleration would turn the race in Lankan Rupee’s favour on the home corner. Of course it didn’t occur.
Whenever Lankan Rupee has exploded in races, it has come when ridden in the lead or with cover. Lankan Rupee is the best sprinter in the world, for now at least, but he isn’t a champion. Not yet.
It requires incredible strength or superiority to win Group races the way Lankan Rupee has been ridden this campaign.
Bondy
Guest
No 1 pet peeve, when jockeys say " Listen " , What do they think we're doing intentionally not paying attention .....
Bondy
Guest
kvjoef i think we might be seeing the CCup winner at Flem 4.20pm sat afternoon but where he finishes … who knows? ; -). ______________________ If Kerrin can give her clear running and win she will start fav for the Clfd Cup for mine Lucia.. There's a lot of horse to lay in Sydney this weekend I notice Boban's drawn the one gate for the feature mile, Winx is having another trot around too ? ....
kv joef
Roar Guru
Bondy, your statement, "... A horse’s price should also be evaluated whilst the event is occurring and the margin of difference at the finish line ..." that's a master key many punters don't understand. Bill Benter would be pleased with your statement and that is not a slight but a compliment. i think we might be seeing the CCup winner at Flem 4.20pm sat afternoon but where he finishes ... who knows? ; -) Geez i've been upgraded, hope the drinks trolley is along shortly. PS i do my own sets of ratings. they help me struggle on.
Bondy
Guest
kv joef Although ratings are a good guide and I use them but theres no better guide than the market and a punters assessment of the market with experience in the market with 5 min's before jump and closing, this may seem rude after the fact but did LR deserve to 1-2's on or did Scissor Kick really deserve to be 8-13 on or $1.60 . A horse's price should also be evaluated whilst the event is occurring and the margin of difference at the finish line I.E what price should rich enuff have been after the Gun's trial 3-1's on for mine he was hard held all the way around the track and won by 5, never in doubt. If a horse who's 2-1's on doesn't have the race under control and opposition disposed of by the 300 mark its not its true value and the horse has not run in accordance to market expectation. Also Bande is a false favourite for the Clfd Cup whatever the quote is currently its unders . Just my thoughts ....
michael steel
Guest
You comments are the comments I agree with Addington.
michael steel
Guest
Thank you
michael steel
Guest
I got bored with all the over scrutinising of the race. Buffering dictated the race and won.
Marko
Guest
That simple hey? Two massively flawed assumptions there. 1. "Buffering has to take a sit"? Well actually, no, he doesn't. Rob Heathcote said they were either going to be allowed to lead or going to take it. If LR doesn't hand up the likely result was going to be a speed battle because of course they'd know that allowing LR a soft lead they had no chance. 2. "That's all he had to do". Hang on, so if LR increases the race pace by retaining the lead (even assuming your best case scenario that Buffering doesn't contest the lead fiercely and severely disadvantage both) you can guarantee there will be at least a moderate increase in overall race pace, correct? So if Rebel Dane only just misses after being severely disadvantaged off a slow pace then how far does he win by if the pace is run more suitably? I'm not guaranteeing what I'm saying is definitely what would have happened but the folly of saying "all he had to do was this" without realising that for every different tactical choice that's made there's equally likely to be a reaction from the others is flawed. All else most definitely does not remain equal.
michael steel
Guest
I've just posted a YOU TUBE tweet on @TheRoarSports of this years T.J Smith Lankan Rupee goes straight to the lead and Buffering has to take a sit. Lankan Rupee kicks at the 300 and Buffering doesn;t get close. That's all that had to be done on Friday night in the 5 horse race. In fact that's all he had to do the previous race at Moonee Valley. Lead them and brain them.
kv joef
Roar Guru
gotcha, i see cow ... 0.5L between their top 3. smart move to stay out of the race ... below is the RacingNetwork's YouTube channel were you might want to have a geek at the Moir ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewQCupbZHBQ&list=UUUhE6BKIPTeAHoIqbTIwYJA
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Cowcorner is sharing the insights he gets from RB Ratings, where he's a customer. It's a formatted table that's lost a little formatting - and generally the word is that he didn't rate LR as unbeatable.
Alice
Guest
This is the problem with ironclad riding tactics, and why I think it's silly that stewards get so upset (aside from obvious cases when a known frontrunner is ridden cold, etc) when a horse is raced in a slightly different pattern than usual. Races are not set in stone. I've always told all my jockeys to follow their instructions but if the situation changes they should adapt accordingly. One could also argue that Froggy's first-up ride on LR was also bad. He effectively left him a sitting duck. Again, he rode the horse like Black Caviar, and was seemingly dumbfounded when the poor boy didn't have anything left in the tank for him.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Sorry i don't get the drift with the above? just old and thick ... and i do think that you are genuine in your offering. seems the correlation between finish rank (finish position) and prediction only has one horse in the correct place = Unpretentious. Adam Page, roar analyst (from the other column) ripped the meeting up, scoring a very high correlation in the 4 analysed MV races. so you are going have to explain to an old fuddy-duddy what's special about the above? Brisburgh Phil and Brent Ford go pretty well. Also regular posters, Scuba and Bondy usually keep you in the black for a running balance and even though we disagree heaps that's just because i'm a nark. i'm sure Justin will join the fray soon and Cam, a renown judge, is always having a good lurk. off-topic for roarers ... i think Mary Howit wrote it :). i'm sure you have worked out how to make cash out of the above otherwise why would you pay for this when the roar analysis is pretty good and .
michael steel
Guest
Bad Tactics.
cowcorner
Roar Pro
RB Ratings --I'm a customer and have no other connection with them , had the race rated thus although the table did not cut and paste nicely. You will still g: et the drift: Race 4 20:15 AEST City Jeep A.J. Moir Stakes 1200m G1 3+ WFA $454000 Apprentices CANNOT claim 5 runners Tab Form Horse AS BP Pos Trainer Home track Jockey App JR Wgt StsW% P% API D+/- W+/- LSM DLS Rtg AP 2 111x2 Lankan Rupee 5g 2 F M G Price Caulfield C Newitt 99[ 5] 58.5 17 53[ 1] 76[ 2] 169.8[ 1] 200 0.0 0.1 20 1082[ 1] $ 2.20 5 12x31 Angelic Light 5m 5 H R D Griffiths Cranbourne Ryan Maloney 102[ 4] 56.5 13 38[ 2] 77[ 1] 34.0[ 4] 200 0.0 -0.1 20 828[ 2] $ 3.60 1 7333x Buffering 7g 3 F R L Heathcote Eagle Farm D J Browne 123[ 1] 58.5 42 36[ 3] 76[ 2] 106.5[ 2] -150 -0.5 0.4 125 678[ 3] $ 4.20 3 547x3 Rebel Dane 5h 4 M G Portelli Warwick Farm Craig Williams 103[ 3] 58.5 17 35[ 4] 53[ 4] 74.1[ 3] 0 0.0 0.4 48 385[ 4] $ 7.50 4 937x7 * Unpretentious 6g 1 M Ms N Burke Cranbourne D Oliver 110[ 2] 58.5 17 24[ 5] 47[ 5] 20.8[ 5] 200 0.0 5.6 20 302[ 5] $11.90 So he had it rated quite tightly --a good or bad ride or good luck could easily change that . I did not see the race but sounds like that's what happened . Interesting article Justin
kv joef
Roar Guru
yes mate, you could when they went at each other both had substantial fanclubs numbering in the 10,000s and on top of that they came from a 'magic' year similar to Pierro / AllToHard year etc that got me excited a couple of years back. So during their 4 yr-old campaigns nothing was a given. It just turned out that these 2 champions rose above the rest. Although they didn't actually race against each other that often, when they did, it was racecourse standing space only. Unfortunately, Triton was retired (injured) to stud before yet another Randwick mile rematch. Gunsynd went on to become the people's darling very similar to BC. My lasting memory of Gunsynd was when he came back to Sydney after his final Melb campaign and even though still winning, common consensus was he was done - struggling to get past soft opposition - sound familiar :) . Again, ironically similar to BC's last TJSmith (Gunsynd's trainer). Gunsynd returned to run in the Rawson (Ranvet). Good field and i think he was odds against (?). Anyway, with Langby on the grey made his move at the Rosehill 1000m and the jammed packed racecourse exploded and got louder and louder for the whole 1000m+ and after-race... and he kicked their brains in :). CHAMPION! So when seeing BC being taken to everybody's heart, it warmed mine too remembering a nearly forgotten champion. Thankfully we have writers like Andrew Lemon to keep those old memories fresh.
Bondy
Guest
kv joef Could you bet on Gunsynd or Triton what price would they have ran around at ....
The Gai Lays
Guest
Then it's up to the jockey to get it balanced then - which is what your saying. Craig Newit has the worst strike rate in Melbourne - as he does just about every year.
Drew H
Guest
I'd take a dollar for each time Luke Nolan is asked if a horse is as good as BC. (including the owner's facetious voice)
kv joef
Roar Guru
Yes bondy, i feel a v.privileged racegoer. As a kid i was lucky to start when Gunsynd and Triton were poking each other in the chest. Always hearing and reading stories about PharLap and Tulloch as the benchmarks. Little did i know that i would get to see 3 Au-giants in the space of 15 years - Might and Power / Maybe Diva and Black Caviar. It has been surreal.