The Turnbull Stakes might be playing second fiddle to a host of Group 1 races in Sydney this weekend but we will learn plenty from the runners who will take part in Melbourne’s lone Group 1 race on Saturday.
Early indicators are pointing towards the big grey Puissance De Lune gaining that elusive Group 1 victory, but based on sectionals the horse is not even close to the level that he was before injury.
Sectionals indicate that while others around Puissance De Lune have improved, the grey trained by Darren Weir is struggling, and has actually lost one-and-a-half lengths compared to this time last year.
That’s not to say that he can’t win the Turnbull Stakes after being blocked for a run last year, but he just isn’t the same horse, which will make the task tougher.
As for Happy Trails, who won the race last year, he flashed home late to record a close second behind Foreteller in the Underwood Stakes last time out. He got the dream sectionals in this race last year so it will be a difficult race for him to win for the second consecutive year.
The Offer is a horse that really needs to start hitting his straps a month out from the Melbourne Cup.
While the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes run was eye-catching, the favourite for the Melbourne Cup was bitterly disappointing in the Underwood Stakes, finishing ninth out of ten runners. If we don’t start seeing something soon we could have a false favourite for the Cup.
Hawkspur will be Chris Waller’s only horse in this race and is perhaps the most intriguing runner; he struggled in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in autumn but won the Group 1 Queensland Derby last year.
There have been slight improvements this preparation but Hawkspur has finished fourth in the Group 1 George Main Stakes for two years running. He finished fifth in the Turnbull Stakes last year, so if the improvement is to be validated I would expect Hawkspur to place.
My last runner to look at will be Lucia Valentina, who was mighty impressive in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes before being pegged in the George Main Stakes. Trainer Kris Lees has already said the next two starts will determine the horse’s fate. But it’s likely that Lucia Valentina will be going to the Caulfield Cup after coming in really good on the weights, and the fact that four-year-old mares have been great performers in the past.
Third-up last year, Lucia Valentina won the Vinery Stakes over 2000m so that is the guide I am using to see how well she will go this weekend.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Nice work Brent. This is what I said on my Blog; LUCIA VALENTINA is getting out to a silly price at $6.50 and I’m assuming that is because she has had a stone bruise. I actually think that might be of some benefit. The fresher she is the better being such a lean and clean winded mare. On her George Main Stakes run she should relish the 2000m and no jockey rides 2000m+ races better than Kerrin McEvoy in my opinion. She probably can’t win this if the race is a jog trot (quite possible), but if she is close enough in the run regardless she should be good enough with a luxury weight of 53.5kg. Best roughie for mine is BRAMBLES who should get right on the pace and he does drop in weight a lot off his last start win.
ray
Guest
Lucia looks a chance, but she maps well back on rails, to concider her a winning chance, she has a lot to negotiate. Even by the time she gets into open air, good horses have to be run down. She's a chance, but not at the price she's on offer presently. Take unders, Go under.. There's value out there, in thar Headquarters.
HR
Guest
Green Moon track and distance is 4 starts for 1 win, two seconds and a fourth. Him and Happy Trails are my top chances
ray
Guest
Well I suppose anythings a chance in an open race, that should be about 7s the field. Its all about value, Green Moon? is he over it though?. 9yos; tend to aviod horses at that age. Mustard won at 11 I think. Anythings possible in this mad,mad,mad world of racing, better back Thoughtfully too. Or now am i just be'in crazy!?
kv joef
Guest
it certainly is a magic race this year. But i do think there will be a few trainers reconsidering their spring prep plans for next year. the epsom and turnbull carry the same prize-money. i wonder if moody considered it for lidari or kris lees his horse or ... for heavens sake there are 3 reserves ... Once-upon-time ... there were a lot of trainers quite happy to use the Epsom as a springboard to the cups and very successful in doing so. but they were probably BOFs (boring old farts) like Denham, Cummings, Smith, Hanlon and so on. it was even thought that at the time, giving your potential stayer a hard hit-out over a randwick G1 mile 'winded' them perfectly for attempts at a longer distance and gave plenty of options. I suppose that thinking is so old fashioned, like once the Newcastle Cup / Metrop was looked on as lovely lead-ins to the cups for the progressive stayer. Maybe a horse like Entirely Platinum may have appreciated races offering different degrees of progressive pressure as well as putting miles in the legs.
andrew
Guest
green moon is a massive chance. ran 2nd to fiorente in aust cup last go this track and trip. prior winner of this race. good flem form. and you rightly ack llyod recent success - all with 'older' horses too. green moon only has to run top 7 to be massive chance in the caul cup too, you can still get $41, noting he ran 2nd in caul cup a few years back, and viewed, dunaden are both recent melb cup winners to win a caul cup after, and topweight have good recent record in race (dandino last year in addition to those just mentioned).
Bondy
Guest
Its a difficult betting race but should still be the form race of the carnival, take odd's ....
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
I'm big on Green Moon, in my live blog for tomorrow in the preview I have Green Moon as a big chance at odds. He could be even more a chance with the talk that Lucia Valentina could be scratched from tomorrow's race!
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
PDL will be having his fourth run tomorrow, so should be in top shape. What are your thoughts on Green Moon though? He is second up now. I watched the replay of the Maykybe and he made up a lot of ground first up. If you compare PDL to Green Moon they finished largely even. I am thinking that thre is a lot more improvement left in Green Moon, as PDL would have been a lot fitter. The Makybe is shaping up to be the form race of the Spring. The backmarkers made up no real ground that day. Green Moon was last but came rattling home before being eased down. GM is $21 chance, but I see some value there to be honest. Further, if you look through the Turnbull results, Williams has a pretty good record there, Efficient won it in 2010 and the mighty Zipping cleaned them up in 2011 also carrying 59kgs and beating home some handy runners in shocking, Metal Bender, Shootout and the lightweight mare Faint Perfume. ZIpping also won that race second up and at 16-1. Does looking at a trainer's history make any sense? Well thinking back to Williams, he pioneered giving Efficient a run in the Cox plate before he went on to win the Melb Cup. Likewise Green moon was sent around in the cox plate for a run, also before winning a Melb Cup. At $21. I think he could be worth a bet tomorrow definitely.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
But can PDL get back to its best which is the big question? I like Lucia Valentina at lightweight to get it done tomorrow.
Drew H
Guest
PDL is fantastic at its best. Not sure how many times we're seen it though. Love you PDL. On the other hand, it might be good to see some of the oldies get knocked over. Not sure if I'm taking contrary views over last year. "Baby it's you Who makes me feel the way that you do You know I can't forget you so soon Baby it's you"
andrew
Guest
ryker is my best of the day tomorrow at race 9 at flem. huge run first up and hard to run down. won 2nd up this trip in autumn. big weight swing his way for beating under the louvre whose form is intertwined with several of these both directly and indirectly via trust in the gust. also very keen bonaria each way who goes well from inside draws and is class runner here and goes well at flem and for rodd - lots in her favour. couldntagreemore will be winning in adl 3 and can double this up into classy jack in race 6. famous seamus has it all over his rivals at WFA, many of which with serious question marks on form, fitness, track condition. meets the 2nd fave better at weights for beating it.