In season 2010, St Kilda and Collingwood fought out a 68-all draw in the first of two grand finals. At the conclusion of season 2014, St Kilda have the wooden spoon in hand and the Pies just 11 wins.
While the Saints’ fall from grace has been well documented, Australia’s biggest sporting club is facing a similar nosedive with Nathan Buckley at the wheel.
A strong start to the season saw Collingwood sitting equal-second with Sydney and Hawthorn in Round 12, but losses in eight of their next eleven matches saw them miss the finals for the first time since 2005.
With retirements to Luke Ball, Ben Hudson, Nick Maxwell and Quinten Lynch, as well as experienced players Heritier Lumumba and Dayne Beams seeking pastures new, the Pies have suddenly become an unknown quantity.
They join the likes of Chris Dawes, Sharrod Wellingham, Alan Didak, Leon Davis and Dale Thomas on the departures list from the past few seasons, with no obvious replacements from the next generation of Magpies.
Comparisons can already be drawn to the recent exodus of St Kilda mainstays Lenny Hayes, Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Jason Blake and Clint Jones, among others.
Some of today’s issues can be traced back to Buckley and Collingwood’s attitude at the trade table at the end of 2012. In hindsight, the recruitment of Hudson and Lynch indicate a central problem: they were not as good as they thought they were then, and it’s hurting now.
Hawthorn’s recruitment of Brian Lake for the 2013 season proved a masterstroke in adding the final piece to the premiership puzzle through recruiting an experienced player to perform when it mattered.
While Collingwood and Hawthorn were and are very different teams, the intentions behind recruiting Lynch, Hudson and Lake were the same: to plug small holes in the side and win a flag in the short term.
Buckley tried to have it both ways by keeping a relatively stagnant list and recruiting veteran players to patch over the immediate deficiencies (we can throw Darren Jolly in the mix here as well).
Despite their comparatively young list, Collingwood’s youngsters have not been given the exposure to senior football like those at other clubs. According to Champion Data, Collingwood’s is the fourth youngest list in the AFL by average age (24.3 years), with an average of 78 games played. Only the Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney boast a younger crop.
A more telling statistic arises through comparison with Port Adelaide, who ranks as the fifth youngest list, with an average age of 24.7 years. Port’s list averages 99.8 games experience, over 20 games more than Collingwood’s.
Collingwood’s list appears to have stalled. Younger players such as Jamie Elliott and Taylor Adams are coming along, but the squad collectively is not up to scratch in terms of skill or depth.
If Collingwood aren’t in the dreaded ‘rebuild’ phase yet, then the shape of their list suggests they’re heading towards it at full speed.
Following on from the disastrous 2012 dealings, a succession of mediocre off-seasons may have drained the last drops of September success from their list. Whether optimism is to blame, or arrogance, or plain ignorance, list management under Buckley has knocked the wind out of a club that looked set to entrench itself in the top four.
2013 recruit Tony Armstrong arrived at the Westpac Centre as an expected first-team player who could provide outside run similar to that of Dale Thomas, yet finished the year with five goalless games.
Patrick Karnezis failed to play a senior game in 2014 after a decent few years with Brisbane. The jury remains out on Jesse White, who registered 20 goals from 18 games in his first season away from the Swans.
20-year-old defender Tom Langdon was the shining light of Collinwood’s woeful 2013 draft. Langdon was taken with pick 65 in last year’s draft and went on to earn a rising star nomination this season, as well as being named at back-pocket in the 22 under 22 side.
Neither Matthew Scharenburg (pick 6 2013) or Nathan Freeman (pick 10 2013) managed a senior game this season.
Injuries to key defenders Ben Reid and Nathan Brown leave a question mark over their potential contributions next year.
Based on the state of things at present, the club cannot say with any certainty what supporters should expect of them in 2015. An all-round elite season from Scott Pendlebury was not enough to lift the Pies into the eight. Should Dane Swan and Travis Cloke fail to fire next year another season without September football is expected. Swan was exceptional on occasion this year, but couldn’t find the consistency he is renowned for.
All is not yet lost for the Collingwood faithful, but with the top four becoming increasingly harder to break into, now is not the time to have a quiet October.
Jimmy
Guest
I agree too, but that can be said for Brisbane as well. Why are they holding back if they want to do the right thing by him? I think player for player is fair. Like Maximum said, Sydney would not trade Franklin with pick 5, would they? Why is everyone expecting us to let arguably one of our best players who's currently 23 and has at least 8 years worth of footy in him for pick 5? I would think Aish and pick 5 is a fair deal. Obviously Brisbane want to play hard ball and get him for practically nothing and if Collingwood were any less tough about it, they would do just that. End of the day, Beams is a contracted player and we reserve the right to ask for a fair deal. In 12 months, he can leave and we'll get a first round pick from the AFL as compensation (which is what we're being offered now more or less), but while he's contracted, we're entitled to ask for a match-for-match.
Knoxy
Guest
Okay so a handful players from that team have since retired, several seasons after 2010. The average age of Collingwood's list back then was 24. Not what I would call 'extremely old'.
Nick Butler
Roar Guru
Interesting take on the 2013 draft Cameron. While both Scharenburg and Freeman failed to make their debut due to injury and both are highly touted. I would say we are probably still 3-4 years away from being able to come to the conclusion as to whether the draft was a success or not. In your comments section I see you talk about letting Beams be with his sick father and the issue being 'bigger than football'. While I agree in principle it was interesting to read an article last week in the Herald Sun suggesting that his father was just one of the reasons he wanted to leave the club. The article gave the impression that he is in fact in remission. If that is the case while I feel sorry for their situation I think Collingwood have every right to hold for the best deal possible and pick 4 in a straight swap is outrageous. I think you raise an excellent point however about the drafting. In 2010 when Jolly and Ball came in they were quality players who would walk straight into the starting 18. Buckley has tried to steal a bargain and turn average footballers like White and Lynch into first choice players and each has been a spectacular failure.
In the outer
Guest
Buckley admitted on August 30th 2014 that the Pies training regimen had contributed to their injury woes; 'Buckley said on SEN on Saturday the Magpies had "worked our players hard, potentially our injury profile suggests we pushed them to the edge and potentially over the top but that will hold us in good stead going forward". http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/training-program-may-have-been-over-the-top-says-nathan-buckley-20140830-10aeyn.html#ixzz3FOk2Fdgy Davoren was subsequently quoted as saying that he and Buckley intended to further increase the players training loads.
Michael
Roar Rookie
It seemed very young because of the presence of a few extremely young players in Beams, Sidebottom, Blair, Brown, Reid. But look at the retirees from the side: Ben Johnson, Leigh Brown, Leon Davis, Alan Didak, Darren Jolly. And now add Nick Maxwell and Luke Ball to that list.
Slane
Guest
I didn't quote you or misquote you. I remarked about the fact that you think somebody who is standing up for homosexual rights is juvenile while you completely ignore the issue that he was raising. The 'mardi gras' photo doesn't say anything about the Collingwood football club. The fact that Heritier was labelled a sook, hyper-sensitive, precious, etc for bringing it up before being traded out of the club instead of actually addressing the problem says everything. In all seriousness I wouldn't expect anything different from a football club. How many other million dollar businesses would allow their employees to get away with homophobic and/or sexist remarks? I bet the CEO's of banks go around calling their underlings girls and gays all the time. Using his highly visible public profile to stand up against racism, sexism and homophobia? Doesn't sound like a human rights leader at all. He is by far the footballer who is most worthy of our respect and is quite frankly the best role model in the AFL.
AR
Guest
Don't misquote me. I never stood up "for people who think it’s funny to grafiti posters with homophobic remarks." I simply said that I don't think one photo, scribbled on by one kid, reflects anything about the Collingwood Football Club as a whole. And I think it's a huge stretch to call Heritier Lumumba a "human rights leader"...even if he'd like to see himself as one. But each to their own.
slane
Guest
Thank you Knoxy! You are spot on. Can't believe people think the list was old in 2010!
Knoxy
Guest
"In 2010 the list was extremely old, as are many premiership teams. Huh? The team that won us the 2010 flag was one of the youngest premiership sides in decades. They were even younger than the Essendon's flag winning side of 93.
slane
Guest
He is a human rights leader. He is doing what all responsible celebrities/people in the public eye should be doing. The 'Mardi Gras' poster is just as bad as BT's 'P**fta gaff'. Using homosexuality as an insult is not acceptable. Heritier let Collingwood FC know this and was called a sook. He is definitely on the right side of history and I applaud his strength and conviction. It's interesting that you call him juvenile while standing up for people who think it's funny to grafiti posters with homophobic remarks. Sounds pretty childish to me.
AR
Guest
I don't think the so-called Mardi Gras photo reflects anything whatsoever about the club itself. It does show that Heritier is hyper-sensitive, probably to a point where he is misguided and sees himself as some sort of human rights band leader. His bizarre press conference last year was pretty revealing (about himself, not the supposed content) and the Copeland speech was more of the same really. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Heritier's heart is in the right place,, but his high-handed sermonising just sounds a bit juvenile to me.
Maximus
Guest
"The buck stops with the coach" What does that mean exactly? Were season ending injuries to Reid and Brown Buckley's fault? Was MacAffer's ACL Buckley's fault? Of course it was! What kind of man allows his club to run around on a field kicking footballs, doesn't he know the risk? Also, Beams' dad got cancer poor bugger, stupid Buckley caused that too of course, what was he thinking?? Ditto injuries to draft picks, doesn't he know that younger players come with injury risks, any decent coach would have sat out the draft. The club, like all clubs, is constantly rebuilding. How do you "enter rebuilding a year late"? Should they have played worse this year, finished in the bottom three and receive official "rebuilding" status? I'm sure they know where they're at, which is, injuries and percentage out of the 8.
Cam Reddin
Roar Rookie
I do deliberately ignore excuses, yes. Excuses don't win Premierships.
Knoxy
Guest
I don't disagree with you on that. As a Collingwood member I was shattered when I found out he wanted to leave. However I certainly won't hold anything against him for it given the circumstances. If he wants to leave, he should be allowed to and hopefully the two clubs can reach a deal. But it's only fair that Collingwood seek to look after their interests as well.
Cam Reddin
Roar Rookie
Very true but some things are bigger than football. I think this qualifies.
Knoxy
Guest
You can't blame the club for wanting to get the best deal possible. Pick 4 is nothing for a player of Beams' calibre. At the end of the day, nothing Brisbane offer will be fair compensation. He's irreplaceable.
Michael
Roar Rookie
They haven't used the word rebuild, because that implies bottoming out, which was never the intention. The strategy is what you say: rebuilding without compromising competetiveness. Just like Geelong/Sydney. Sydney took 7 years to rebuild between 2005 and 2012. In that time they missed finals just once. I see Collingwood on a simlilar path.
Michael
Roar Rookie
The only person here who seems to understand where Collingwood are at is TomC. Since the Buckley transistion he has been rebuilding the team. In 2010 the list was extremely old, as are many premiership teams. Instead of bottoming out, like StKilda, and taking 5 years to get back to competitiveness, they chose a different strategy. You can argue about whether it was the right time to move on Mick - that's a different question. But since 2012 there has been a clear strategy internally which is exactly what TomC said: to transistion to the next premiership side without compromising old-field performance. Basically the Sydney/Geelong mould. Everything the club has done since then can be seen in that light. They brought in lots of youth and traded out superfluous players, while topping up with experienced players to fill roles until the youth mature. Ultimately Bucks will continue to cop flak as long as the team loses. So only on-field success will do. The loss of Beams is a big setback, and an unexpected one. That will hurt. But other than that, the Pies are on track. The success will come.
Slane
Guest
He left because he was standing up for gay rights. In that regard he will be viewed on the right side of history. His name means Prince. He will have the last laugh because he did the right thing while Collingwood and it's players refuse to move with the times.
Penster
Guest
Lumumba's speech was bizarre expression of random thoughts. The bit about Collingwood during the depression era and sense of community was heading in the right direction, but "the prince who has the last laugh" and "the right side of history" didn't make much sense. Was it a cryptic "up yours" to Collingwood?