As has now become custom, at the start of the NRL season I make five fearless predictions for the year, and then revisit them at the end of the season.
With the 2014 NRL grand final now in the rearview mirror, it’s time to analyse my pre-season prognostications.
A warning: after some solid predictions in seasons past, this year’s do not make for pretty reading.
1. Three coaches will be sacked… before May
I predicted that Steve Price of the Dragons, Mick Potter of the Tigers and the Broncos’ Anthony Griffin would all be sacked before we even reached the halfway point of the season.
Price was dumped in May. In July, Griffin found out he would be chopped for next season to make way for the return of Wayne Bennett. And lastly, Potter was eventually let go at the end of the season. However, to be fair, you could make a strong case that the Tigers coach was a dead man walking all season long.
So while, technically, the trio weren’t sacked before May, I’m going to give myself a tick here. Mainly because of what’s still to be adjudicated upon.
2. The Warriors will make the eight
The Warriors finished in equal eighth spot on points, but ninth spot when for and against was factored in.
Which is a nice way of saying I was wrong.
As is their annual tradition, the Warriors teased with their potential all season long, winning a number of impressive games, and losing just as many in poor fashion. The club is yet to shed their tag of being wildly inconsistent.
I was tempted to give myself half a mark for being so close, but the truth is I expected the Warriors to easily make the top eight, rather than narrowly miss out, so I can’t give myself any kudos here with a clear conscious.
3. Cameron Smith will win the Dally M Medal
The Melbourne, Queensland and Australian captain/hooker did not win the 2014 Dally M Medal. He didn’t even finish in the top five. He polled 19 points to finish in the top ten, so I didn’t totally embarrass myself, but I was off the mark.
Let’s just move along, shall we?
4. Paul Gallen won’t be NSW Blues captain
In a collection of horrible predictions, this one has probably ended up being the worst.
Not only did Gallen retain the Blues captaincy, he led NSW to a long-awaited series victory, ending Queensland’s dominance. So any way you look, this was a terrible prediction.
Unless someone wants to make the case that because of the ASADA investigation and subsequent suspensions, Gallen was technically suspended and therefore couldn’t be skipper, which makes my prediction correct?
No? OK, fair enough.
5. Sam Burgess will be dropped from first grade at Souths
Instead of being dropped from first grade, Burgess lead the Bunnies to their first premiership in 43 years, and was the best forward in the competition, if not the best player in the NRL overall. He also won the Clive Churchill Medal.
When it comes to ranking incorrect predictions, the scale is ‘wrong’, then ‘dead wrong’, followed ‘disgracefully wrong’, followed by ‘such-an-embarrassment-that-you-should-give-up-your-writing-job wrong’, and finally ‘this prediction’.
Sorry Sam, and well done on a fantastic season.
In conclusion, after reviewing this year’s predictions, it’s a score of one out of five, with even that being a little generous.
Lovely work, ‘expert’.
Bring on 2015.
Luke M
Guest
I agree re the Knights, towards the end of the season, with no pressure, they were brilliant.
Gaz
Guest
Spot on Baz. Benny and the Broncs top 4 in 2016.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Just sayin Gaz...wasnt meant to be as harsh as it maybe sounded. Bennett will have at least 12 months grace...this isn't 'his' team. Ricky will always be struggling for his job. Burgess will be a huge loss. Not sure that a 30 yo G Stewart will fill the gap. Not sure how much they think they'll miss him. I'd like to see G Stewart have a big year before he retires. Hopefully not much football this year has him fresh for next season.
Casper
Guest
Joel, Gallen must have been captain because he spent at least 20 minutes per game conversing with/harassing the refs in origin. Maybe Ryan had a premonition that PG would punch the living daylights out of Nate Myles' head in a club game before origin & get sent off/suspended. Had that happened, we probably wouldn't have the ludicrous situation where Dale Finucane can only get penalised for a blatant, try-saving professional foul but anyone throwing a handbag punch that wouldn't dent a custard is automatically sent for a 10 minute penance. That rule has to go, despite all the hysteria surrounding that event. Gaz, number 4 is a given, wherever Rickie coaches. You're close with the Storm & Bulldogs needing to step up or they'll struggle. Scrap number 1, Bennett will never be under pressure. He'll clear the dead wood over a couple of years (already started), get a decent culture back which is sadly lacking, build a competitive team & hand over to Kevvie Walters in 2017. I thought he was on track at the Knights until the Alex McKinnon debacle destroyed their season. When they were switched on, the Knights were a match for almost anyone but unfortunately, they had other things on their minds at times. I forecast Wayne Bennett to become the new Cyril Connell recruitment guru for the Broncos as he steps back from coaching when he hits his late 60's. Good judges never lose their eye for a footballer. Check back in 5 years & let me know how I went, if i'm still around.
mushi
Guest
Not alone in that one - I just would never have been able to basically gift millions upon millions of dollars to Dan Gilbert (which is what he's done) after he called me a deserter, narcissistic, betrayer, coward, and the exact opposite of what we should want our children to grow up to.
Gaz
Guest
Agree Barry thay are qualitative but only trying to get into the spirit of things. Loosen up old mate, can't dwell on the GF forever, at least you got there.
Joel
Guest
4. Paul Gallen won’t be NSW Blues captain lol, I think many would argue that Shayne Hayne was your captain on field on the night .... maybe a 50/50 shared so you can give yourself .5 points there ...
The Barry
Roar Guru
1. 2. and 4. aren't really quantifiable.
Gaz
Guest
Although being in the final, feel doggies struggled most of the year and will need to lift without Ennis. Storm are suffering from old guard getting older, slower and more injuries, maybe the coach getting a bit stale due to being at the one club for so long. Sharkies did so well beating much stronger teams this year without a genuine coach and ASADA stuff with all that behind them and some good players on the way can see that much improvement. I'm not a supporter but wish them well with what they have been through.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Fear not, I said essentially the same on The Cheap Seats podcast. I seem to remember the words "No chance in hell he's leaving Miami" coming out of my mouth.
astro
Guest
Well, my best for the year was confidently listing 6 reasons why Lebron would stay at Miami and not go back to Cleveland, only to see him sign with Cleveland less than 24hrs later...one of my best comments on the Roar, ever.
mushi
Guest
So if you do a cover of slash doing a cover is that like a double negative and it becomes an original?
Ryan O'Connell
Guest
Number 3 is a MASSIVE call!! The rest I like, apart from number 5, which seems like a hope, rather than a prediction?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Would have been a massive get if you jagged it. No one can accuse you of sitting on the fence with your predictions. Look forward to the 2015 version.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Sorry Mo! (You're covering Slash's CD covers? You might get a gig next grand final . . .)
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Yeah mate, I had heard whispers that English Rugby were keen to get a hold of him earlier, and combined with (unsubstantiated) reports that he was 'on the nose' at Souths, I thought Souths might drop him for good, or that he might be distracted or disinterested and that it would affect his play for a period during the year. Way off the mark in hindsight, but that's predictions for you!
Digby
Roar Guru
Elliot was sacked from the Warriors, perhaps you got the quantity right on time? ;)
Paul Nicholls
Roar Guru
Squiddo - I wonder if Slash actually felt like a goose all up there on his lonesome doing a version of guitar karaoke. I am getting severely off topic but I much preferred Ed Sheeren & Tom Jones at the AFL GF
Squidward
Roar Rookie
I think slash was playing slash covers on Sunday night
Gaz
Guest
Well done R. Three out of three coaches. Also smart move to get it out there before others dig it up. Predictions for next year. 1. Bennett under pressure. 2. Rabbits miss S.Burgess more then they thought. 3. Bulldogs and Storm miss the top eight. 4. Ricky fighting for his job. 5. Sharkies to make the top four.