Off-season review: Queensland Reds

Over the past few weeks, I have grown increasingly tired of reading the plethora of negative articles on both the Wallabies and the state of Australian rugby.

That is not to say that there aren’t a lot of issues currently plaguing the game they play in heaven, but at times I think we all can get so caught up in the negatives that we forget about the things that make sport so great.

So in the spirit of the old adage “if you don’t like the topic, change the conversation”, let’s start a different dialogue. In the background of the media circus surrounding the Wallabies’ performances in the Rugby Championship, the last month has seen our Super Rugby franchises solidifying their playing rosters for 2015.

As such, I thought it was time to run the rule over each of the teams in the Australian conference, to see how they are shaping up and where further work needs to be done.

This week I will be starting this series with a look at my beloved Queensland Reds.

2014 recap
Being a Reds fan this past year has been difficult. For a squad that looked rather potent on paper, to say that the Queensland Reds under-performed is an enormous understatement. The playing roster was littered with both current and former Wallabies, and as a team they simply should not have been that poor at closing out games.

The pack was inconsistent, the back line at times lacked even basic skills and the defence was so bad that the team finished second to only the Cheetahs in terms of points conceded. Granted, it was the first year for Richard Graham as the sole head honcho, without Ewen McKenzie’s influence permeating the team. And granted, extensive injuries to key players hurt badly.

But the point remains, the Reds’ enormous membership base expected better, and if rugby is to maintain its solid foothold in Queensland, improvements are vital in 2015.

Recruitment
I can happily report that there are some positive signs coming out of Ballymore. With a fairly large turnover of players, Queensland desperately needed to recruit some high level talent to help take the burden off of Quade Cooper, James Slipper and Will Genia.

The list of players leaving includes wingers Dom Shipperley and Rod Davies, utility back Mike Harris and prop/hooker Albert Anae.

The loss of the promising Anae (a previous Wallabies training squad member) particularly hurts the side in terms of front row depth, while several backs were allowed to leave to make room to lure a couple of former schoolboys stars back home.

Going forward, the priority targets for recruitment simply had to be potent backline talent and a strong, ball-running back rower to supplement the high workrate and low impact styles of Ed Quirk and Jake Schatz.

To their credit, Richard Graham and Jim Carmichael delivered on these fronts, unveiling the key signings of Karmichael Hunt, James ‘The Brand’ O’Connor, Hendrik Tui, Adam Thompson and Duncan Paia’aua.

Hunt is an incredibly talented athlete with a rugby background, and though it may take him time to re-adjust to the 15-a-side game, his hard running, playmaking skills and kicking game should make him a vital cog of the back line across a variety of positions.

O’Connor, despite his proven talent, is also somewhat of a gamble, with a long rap sheet of off-field discretions somewhat dampening the appeal of his on-field skills. By all reports he has matured considerably during his stint in European rugby, however it will be interesting to watch how he gels with former amigo Quade Cooper.

At his best James O’Connor is a Wallaby weapon. At his worst he is locker room cancer. Conflicting reports about the nature and duration of his contract are concerning, but for now I’m choosing to be an optimist and the optimistic view is that O’Connor is a massive asset.

Tui is somewhat of an unknown commodity, but appears to fit the mould of the back row enforcer that the Reds have been so badly craving. People more informed than I obviously considered him to be a worthy signing, and at the very least his presence in the squad will force Quirk, Schatz and Curtis Browning to play well if they want to see decent game time in 2015.

Thompson, on the other hand, is undeniably a game changer. The former All Black possesses a damaging running game, silky aerial skills and will be a great mentor for Queensland’s promising back row talent in Browning and Gill. Thompson may in time prove to be the most important new signing for the Reds, just as Jacques Potgieter was for the Waratahs last season.

Paia’aua represents somewhat of a coup for rugby in that the Reds managed to lure him away from the Brisbane Broncos Under-20s system. Like Tui, he is a large gamble (particularly considering the decision to release Quade’s long time, reliable understudy Ben Lucas), but he will be learning his trade from the most damaging playmaker in Australia and should develop well over time.

The other recruitment of note is Taniela Tupou, the Tongan Thor. A highly prized signature due to his immense physical attributes, he could well develop into a Wallabies star of the future.

Likely 2015 team
(1) James Slipper- fairly widely considered the best prop in Australian rugby.
(2) James Hanson – interchangeable with Saia Fainga’a.
(3) Greg Holmes – former Wallaby tighthead who is excellent at scrum time, just watch how Queensland Country’s set piece falls apart when he is off the field.
(4) Rob Simmons – the best lineout option in Australia, can be inconsistent around the park.
(5) James Horwill – there have been positive signs that he is slowly regaining his best form and health.
(6) Adam Thompson – the man was an All Black for 29 Tests, enough said.
(7) Liam Gill – consistent ball thief.
(8) Hendrik Tui/Jake Schatz – hard to know without having seen much of Tui, but Schatz is a fringe Wallaby and will be hard to unseat.
(9) Will Genia – accurate pass, great playmaker, infuriatingly inconsistent.
(10) Quade Cooper – I have no doubt he will be the Wallabies flyhalf at the Rugby World Cup.
(11) Chris Feaui-Sautia – if he can ever get his body 100 per cent right the guy is a beast.
(12) Ben Tapuai – will need to start the season well to hold off other contenders for his spot, but hopefully the pressure will be good for him.
(13) Samu Kerevi – still raw, but an absolute monster of a man, though his defence will need to improve with experience.
(14) James O’Connor – will be hungry to prove himself before the Rugby World Cup.
(15) Karmichael Hunt – strong kicking game, strong running game, strong defender, good hands.

Bench
(16) Saia Fainga’a
(17) Ben Daley
(18) (Other prop yet to be signed)
(19) Dave McDuling
(20) Hendrik Tui/Jake Schatz
(21) Nick Frisby (possibly the biggest boot of any 9 in the country)
(22) Lachie Turner
(23) Anthony Fainga’a

The key
The performance of the forward pack. With that much back line talent, the 2015 Queensland Reds have plenty of options for scoring points, but that will only matter if the big boys can give them a solid platform to work off. Last year’s forward play, and particularly the set piece, was one of the team’s biggest issues, but under-performing this year will be simply inexcusable.

The calibre of the starting forward pack is one that should never be dominated in a Super Rugby match. On paper it should be one of the stronger packs in the competition, and though the squad still looks light on front row depth, there is little excuse for them to under-perform for the second year running.

The additions of Thompson and Tui give the side a greater ball-running threat and allow Gill to focus on dominating the breakdown area, while the pedigree in the tight five should be enough to at least achieve parity in the set pieces. Forwards coach Nick Stiles appears to be the heir-apparent to the head coaching job after being handed the reigns of star-studded Brisbane City in the NRC, but a failure to draw solid performances out of this pack should severely dent his career aspects.

Most important player
Quade Cooper. Love him or hate him, the Queensland Reds’ fate is intimately tied to that of their mercurial flyhalf. If Quade hits top form and fitness, there are plenty of points in this team. On the other hand, if he blows his knee in the first five minutes of Round 1 there is almost no way the Reds make the finals.

How Duncan Paia’aua (and possibly Karmichael Hunt) develops may limit the team’s reliance on Quade, but the number 10 is still hands down the most vital man for Queensland Rugby in 2015.

The big question
Is Richard Graham the man to get the most out of this talent-laden squad?

Looking across the playing roster as a whole, the group is studded with players who are brimming with immense potential and screaming out for a strong coach to give them the structure and support to achieve their best.

Samu Kerevi looks like he can be just about anything, but he is still raw and his reading of the game needs significant work. O’Connor is a superstar with a notoriously problematic ego. Hunt is a phenomenal athlete, but will need strong guidance as he attempts to relearn the intricacies of the game.

The mix of established stars and exciting prospects is such that a good coach should be able to turn this team into a serious finals threat. However, whether or not Richard Graham is a good coach is still up for debate.

He’s undoubtedly highly regarded by Queensland Rugby Union, as evidenced by their poaching of him from the Western Force two seasons ago. Despite this, his record as Force coach was fairly underwhelming, and since fully taking the reigns of the Reds from McKenzie the Reds have been largely disappointing.

There are significant rumours of discontent among the playing ranks, with one member of the playing squad reportedly referring to Graham as the worst coach he has ever played under. In addition to this, several departing players indicated that their motivations behind moving elsewhere at least partially stemmed from the coach.

Now obviously any info you hear indirectly must be taken with a grain of salt, and it speaks well in Graham’s defence that his position passed the club’s post-season review without much mention. However, like it or not, serious questions will be asked over his credentials as long as the team is not a title contender.

In part, through his excellent player recruitment this offseason, Graham has started to build his own coffin. The massive Queensland membership base – many of whom came on board during the 2011 championship run – will not endure another season like 2014. The amount of talent and pedigree in this Reds team means they should be a finals contender. Anything less and Queensland Rugby Union will be advertising for a new head coach come season’s end.

That’s all from me for now. Keep an eye out for my analysis of the other Australian teams over the coming weeks.