Four keys for the Wallabies to beat the All Blacks

This week I had the pleasure of going back in detail over the Springboks match against the All Blacks two weeks ago – it was a good way to get away from the current crisis engulfing Australian rugby, even if only for a short while.

The match was another demonstration of how good the game of rugby can be. It was brutally physical, it was fast, the skill and composure of players was tremendous and it kept us on the edge of our seats right until the end.

While we like to think that the Wallabies and the Bledisloe Cup are the biggest challenge for the All Blacks outside of the Rugby World Cup, the reality is that the Springboks have historically been the most significant challenge for them. The current teams have restored that contest to being the premier matchup in world rugby and are making a habit of turning on special contests when they play each other.

What can the Wallabies learn from that match as they prepare to face the All Blacks this weekend?

As I worked my way through the match there were four key themes that kept appearing in my notebook that I think will be the keys for the Wallabies this weekend.

None of those themes is new or will surprise anyone, but the outcome in those areas will determine the outcome of the match.

1. Flatten up in attack to pressure the All Blacks defence
The flatter a team can play in attack the more decisions they force the defence to make under pressure.

One of the best ways to disrupt a flat attacking line is to increase line speed in defence so defenders are getting to the ball carrier as they catch the ball or soon thereafter.

But one of the best ways to beat a rushing defensive line is to get the pass away early to ball carriers running into space outside the rushing defence.

Another way to disrupt the rushing defence is for the fly-half to run the ball themselves, targeting any space inside the rushing defenders in mid-field.

The Springboks did this really well with Handre Pollard having a superb match. Earlier this year Pollard was captaining the South African Under 20 team but already he looks like an experienced Test rugby player.

Here’s an example of the flat alignment the Springboks were using.

As Pollard received the ball he was nearly at the last feet of the Springboks scrum and those outside him are just as flat. In this example he took the ball to the line and was able to stretch over for a try.

Here’s another example where Pollard receives the ball just a few metres short of the lineout.

Interestingly, with the Springboks persisting with this tactic the All Blacks defensive line became more passive seeking to gain some time to work out which runner was going to receive the ball. So if the Wallabies use this tactic they must persist with it even if they don’t get results early.

Here’s an example from the Springboks where the flat alignment combined with a cut-pass created space in a first phase play that resulted in a break of nearly 50 metres.

Again, Pollard receives the ball less than five metres from the lineout.

He fires a flat cut-pass to Jean de Villiers.

de Villiers uses another flat cut-out pass to Willie le Roux.

le Roux then sets Bryan Habana clear with another flat pass.

The fact that the Springboks had multiple runners in motion made it much harder for the All Blacks to defend.

The key player for the Wallabies here will Tevita Kuridrani. Bernard Foley needs to receive the ball flat and get the ball as quickly as possible to Kuridrani to allow him some space to wind up and carry the ball over the gain line. Flat passes cutting out Leali’ifano need to be used regularly,

If Kuridrani can establish a platform early in the match defenders will start focussing on him, then some variety can be added and players like Israel Folau and Adam Ashley-Cooper will have their own space to work in out a little wider as the Springboks found in this example.

Once the defensive line starts becoming more passive there are opportunities for the fly-half as shown by Pollard when two All Black forwards were in the defensive line and retreating while they tried to work out what was going to happen. Pollard sliced between them and scored under the posts.

Foley has shown he has a good running game this season and must challenge the line – as must Quade Cooper when he comes on.

2. Compete hard at the ruck or All Blacks will dominate possession
The key for the Springboks was Duane Vermuelen – he’s a ruck monster and made a number of key turnovers to shut down All Black opportunities.

He’s been doing this for some time now but up against a superb All Black backrow he went into overdrive. It’s not just his physical strength – although once he’s over the ball he becomes an almost immovable object – it’s also his speed to get to the ruck and then his superb timing to pick the right moment to enter.

Vermuelen is obviously used by the Springboks as a primary ball carrier. In the example below he got the ball 10 metres over the gain line on the first phase from a lineout. Richie McCaw brought him down but it was by no means a dominant tackle.

However, Oupa Mohoje was pedestrian in getting into the ruck, which allowed McCaw the split second he needed to regain his feet and steal the ball before the ruck formed.

More about McCaw in a minute but from that turnover the All Blacks moved the ball wide in counter attack.

Within seconds the All Blacks were just outside the Springbok 22 and the Boks looked vulnerable.

But it was Vermuelen who came to the rescue with another ruck turnover. He was last up from the ruck where the ball was turned over 50 metres downfield but managed to get back in position to save the day at the other end of the field.

McCaw also had a superb match – so much for an ageing player slowing down! His work rate was exceptional and whilst not quite as physical as Vermuelen he is better technically.

The Wallabies can’t allow McCaw and his backrow buddies to slow down their ball or worse, to achieve turnovers which will give New Zealand an advantage with a higher share of possession.

The All Blacks are generally very good with their decision making at rucks – they know when there’s no opportunity to get to the ball and then don’t contest but fan out. So when the Wallabies have the ball their backrow in particular will have to work very hard to get to the rucks early to remove the option for the All Blacks to contest.

Then Nick Phipps will have to move the ball quickly away from the ruck to remove the threat of counter rucking.

When the All Blacks have the ball, the Wallabies will have to be more physical in the rucks. If the Wallabies choose not to contest and instead get their defensive line set, the All Blacks will build too much momentum and will be unstoppable.

The Springboks ground the Wallabies into the dirt last time they played with multiple long sequences of over fifteen phases. The All Blacks use this tactic regularly so the Wallaby forwards have to change the momentum by competing hard and even if they can’t achieve a turnover, they must slow the ball down.

Unfortunately for the Wallabies they don’t have any forward who can take on the All Blacks physically like Vermuelen did, so they’ll have to be very good technically in this area.

3. Can’t switch off in defence
This seems like an obvious one, and it is, but one thing that struck me as I watched the All Blacks against the Springboks was how simple their attack was.

Of course the simplest things done well are often the best and the All Blacks show that time and time again.

Here’s an example from a scrum where the All Blacks stacked four players on the left side of the field, which you’d expect would take away the space to run a play. However they simply used straight runners, putting the ball through the hands to get the ball to Julian Savea just a couple of metres inside the touch line.

The Springboks looked to have this covered but Savea used his power to break through and it was only a great try saving tackle from Francois Hougaard and Willie le Roux that prevented Savea from scoring.

Here’s another example where the All Blacks had five forwards on the left side of the field with Savea again on the end of the line. The forwards showed good skills to keep the attack straight and no-one panicked and threw a cut-out pass. In the end, Savea wasn’t even needed with Dane Coles scoring out wide.

In both those examples the threat was created from nothing and that’s the danger of the All Blacks – every single one of their players is an attacking threat and they are good finishers so they can’t be given too many opportunities.

4. The lineout threat
Statistically the All Blacks have the best defensive lineout in world rugby. When the opposition has to deal with Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick and Kieran Read as primary jumpers, it’s no wonder they turnover so much ball.

Whitelock is the biggest threat and here’s an example from the match against the Springboks where even though Vermeulen was off the ground well before him, Whitelock still managed to get to the ball and force a turnover.

The first image shows Vermuelen as he prepares to leave the ground. You can see Whitelock isn’t even turned into position to jump at this point.

But he’s so quick to get off the ground that he catches up to Vermuelen and gets up with a hand before Vermuelen can take the ball.

Whitelock’s a very dynamic jumper so beating him in the air is difficult. Instead, the Wallabies will have to beat the All Blacks on the ground and get their jumper up before the All Black lifters can even get to the All Black jumper.

This will require lots of variety and that requires the maximum number of jumping options. Regardless of whether you think Will Skelton could have added something around the field, tying one hand behind your back by taking one less jumper into the match would gift an opportunity to the All Blacks and the Wallabies can’t afford to do that.

With four primary jumping options in Rob Simmons, Scott Higginbotham, Sam Carter and Scott Fardy the Wallabies have the variety they need but I’d like to see them throw to Michael Hooper as a surprise option from time to time.

With James Horwill on the bench they have another primary jumper and if Matt Hodgson actually gets on the field this week he’s another option.