Saturday is the 2014 Caulfield Cup Day, with the feature event being the best 2400m handicap in the world, the $3 million 2014 Caulfield Cup (2400m).
Lucia Valentina, the superb winner of the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) is the top pick in betting, ahead of the Japanese front-running stayer Bande.
But we have already had a good look at the big one. Let’s focus on the the support races.
MORE CAULFIELD CUP:
» How not to lose your money at the Caulfield Cup
» Bande scratched from 2014 Caulfield Cup
» Caulfield Cup: Heavyweights against topweights
» Full runner-by-runner preview
Some of the leading contenders for both the Derby and Oaks will strut their stuff in the $750,000 Group 3 Caulfield Classic (2000m).
I am going to put Bachman on top. He has been set for the Derby since day one of his prep and all the signs are pointing to him being the leading contender. He was very good last time out in the Dulcify Quality (1600m) behind Hampton Court when running third in a leader-dominated race, and that form of course has been Group 1 franked. Up to 2000m suits and has the relative fresh legs compared to some of his rivals.
Magicool was a strong winner of the UCI Stakes (1800m) at Flemington on Turnbull Day, and the margin certainly flattered his opposition given that the horse was left in front a fair way from home and he wanted to have a good look at his surroundings. Ridden with cover and saved for the last crack at them, he can be even better, and improve enough to be a serious chance here.
Merion was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) last week, sitting worse than midfield, then being forced near the centre of the track on the turn, before picking up and making good ground to the line. Has always given the impression that 2000m and beyond will be his go and he gets his chance here to show his Derby credentials.
Selections
Bachman (3) ahead of Magicool (4), Merion (2) and Kumaon (1).
The mares get to tune-up for the Myer Classic (1600m) on Derby Day by going around in the $200,000 Group 2 Tristarc Stakes (1400m).
I am going to put Politeness on top. Her two runs this time in have been outstanding. First-up in the How Now Stakes (1200m) she was wide with no cover, yet surged late to run a close up fourth. In the Blazer Stakes (1400m) she was one of the runs of the day when fourth to Forever Loved given she was hooked straight back to last and made up a stack of ground late. Hopefully won’t be too far away from the good gate, and now being third-up, she should just about be at peak fitness.
Catkins has enough credit in the bank to forgive her for her last-start failure in the Golden Pendant (1400m) when second to Arabian Gold. Her first-up win in the Sheraco Stakes (1200m) was brilliant, but when it comes to the really good races, she lacks the killer punch to win, so that’s the worry. But on class and guts, she is the one to beat.
Sweet Idea was burnt early on in the Sir Rupert Clarke and while she got the dream split at the top of the straight, the damage had been done earlier on in the race when she was forced to hand up the lead. She draws outside Girl Guide, so I expect those two to fire out and control the tempo, perhaps with Sweet Idea crossing over and dictating given that Girl Guide is unknown at 1400m. Either way, a great chance.
Selections
Politeness (7) just, over Catkins (4), Sweet Idea (3) and May’s Dream (2).
Sprinters possibly heading towards races like the Sallinger Stakes (1200m) on Derby Day or the Darley Classic (1200m) on Stakes Day will test out their credentials in the $200,000 Group 2 Caulfield Sprint (1100m).
Driefontein is clearly on top. The Group 1 winner for Gai Waterhouse hasn’t been seen since finishing down the track in the Tatt’s Tiara (1400m) behind stablemate Cosmic Endeavour, and retirement was on the cards after that. But she is back, and for good reason if her Flemington jumpout win is any indication, where she led and won by about 10 lengths under only light hands and heels. I doubt she will cross I’m All The Talk, but she flies fresh and is another who seems to race best racing anti-clockwise.
Unpretentious wasn’t too far behind them in the Moir Stakes (1200m) when fifth of six to Buffering in a blanket finish. Away from the Valley should suit, as should getting away from weight-for-age and getting a genuine speed here to run on to. At his best, he can win this, and he gets conditions to show that.
A fast run 1100m might just suit Shamal Wind. She got too far back last week behind Griante, but in saying that, she was there to win 150 metres out, but she just didn’t finish. Maybe that’s because she had to do too much, maybe it’s because she doesn’t run 1200m. Fast run 1100m looks perfect for her.
Selections
Driefontein (2) to beat Unpretentious (3), Shamal Wind (7) and Bel Sprinter (1).
Brambles looks the best bet on the card in the David Jones Cup (2000m). The 2012 Queensland Derby winner had been struggling to find his best, but he produced it in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) with a slashing third to Lucia Valentina after sitting on the speed. If he gets in the Caulfield Cup field, he will be a definite contender, but if not, bet on him here and watch him win as he heads towards the Melbourne Cup.
The big improver is Vilanova. His last start effort in the Craven Plate (2000m) was full of merit when third to Moriarty and Rising Romance, two contenders for the Caulfield Cup. We know he is a much better horse when racing anti-clockwise, so tying that with the nice weight drop and good gate, he is a threat if Brambles is off his game.
The other who could improve racing anti-clockwise is Slow Pace for Kris Lees. The former import has performed admirably in Sydney since coming over from the UK, but he really hasn’t show his best form, so perhaps coming back to this racing direction and a trip away could sharpen this horse right up.
Selections
Brambles (1) a special to beat Vilanova (7), Slow Pace (4) and Signoff (9).
A good lead-up for the Emirates Stakes (1600m) is the $150,000 Group 3 Moonga Stakes (1400m). Boban won this race last year en route to the Emirates, and I am tipping Leebaz to do the same. He has had a good break from racing, where he last ran in the Doomben Cup, finishing a narrow second to Streama. He is a Group 1 horse, make no mistake about that, and there is bigger fish to fry, so expect improvement from this run, but he looked sharp in a barrier trial at Rosehill early in September behind stablemate Entirely Platinum. Flies fresh and looks well-placed against this lot.
Ron Leemon produced one of the great training efforts to get Manawanui to win first-up in the Bill Ritchie Handicap (1400m) after nearly 12 months off. Prior to that, his last run was in this race last year behind Boban, where he was beaten five lengths. He went to the trials on Tuesday at Rosehill and was slick in the way he went about it when third. He has to prove that the first-up win was no fluke, and so far, he is going about proving that wrong in the best way possible.
Generalife… yikes. Enough said about last start. It was ugly to watch if you backed him (not me because I backed Famous Seamus), but what it did prove is that he is no ‘Winter Wonder’ and is capable of mixing it with the big boys at the right time of the season.
Big test here against this lot, but he does have race fitness along with residual fitness from the Winter on his side.
Selections
Leebaz (6) to win, over Manawanui (3), Generalife (8) and Under The Louvre (9).
In other races on the card:
Azkadella looks a special in the opener.
Stratum Star can continue the Darren Weir/Brad Rawiller hot streak.
Maastricht should be winning the Ethereal with normal luck from the barrier.
Miss Steele, Anatina or Cradle Me will win the last.
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
Correction.Race 7 It's something called the the David Jones Cup.
michael steel
Guest
I give no 13 Pinstripe Lane a the place chance long odds in the Moonga Stales Race 7
kv joef
Roar Guru
Notice 25c has dropped onto Smerdon's ex-pat Noble Protector in the DJones Cup. On first look i considered the race a contest between Contributer and Honorius in a fairly even affair. The Godolphin horse has strong credentials for a race like this. Fitness is a query but i think O'Shea will have him primed. i'm sure godolphin would consider sending more of their 2nd tier distance horses to AU if O'Shea proves he can keep this horse at the same euro-level or maybe improve him a few points. a strategy i think they should have been considering several years ago. Anyway, whoever pays the bills calls the tune :) as PSnowden found out.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I think she will be competitive, but no way does she deserve to be favourite. Her racing pattern is just awful for this level of class.
Powerbot
Guest
My question as well kv joef! I am wondering exactly what the Hawkes clowns will tell the owners of the unbeaten older brother of the guineas winner (Shooting To Win) when he flogs that lot in Sydney. I am sure they are keen to see the same money for another Northern Meteor sire as Zoustar got. I guarantee the team Hawkes mob are rehearsing right now.
michael steel
Guest
Hard believe to SHAMAL WIND is favourite. Has won an open handicap at Caulfield but best win is 1000 metres at Flemington in a listed race. BeL Sprinter and Unpretentious have been in 7 Group 1's in their last 8 starts. Both having a win at this level. Couldn't see Driefontein winning from barrier 13.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Smile of the sat racing = how 2 syd horses scratched from the Tatt's Lightning to run in a highQ G2 Caul sprint - avoiding running into the lowest OTR rated horse in the syd 1100m race. Hope the trk firms to let him start. Come 3.30 EDT tomorrow millions of eyes will be on the randwick race to see how Deep Field copes with this lot. reckon he will BUT will he then go towards the Darley Classic and stablemate, Chautaugua.
kv joef
Roar Guru
wonder if 2 nice mares can show something of their old form tomorrow. Been over a month since Miracles of Life trialled. Thought her the type of horse Team Snowden could have some fun with but a v.tough race where the pace will blister. Still she should slipstream with HBowman, her trial jockey, a suitable partner. Anatina has been a solid paycheck for me and she is sound fv. for the last but maybe a bit of value may arise in the exotics if Spirits Dance finds her chasing legs.
MAX
Guest
Sorry R6 should be #1 . If only racing was as clear as the waters of Forster - Tuncurry.
MAX
Guest
Sorry R6 should be #1 . If only racing was as clear as the waters of Forster - Tuncurry.
MAX
Guest
It is a very hard card at the Heath and I will restrict investment to Races 4 to 7. The others are simply too hard and no value. My analysis of the meeting has me in agreement with your selections with the addition of R4 #13, R5 #10, R6#11, R7#12 for F4's and exotics. Thank you Adam. Great to see Roar Racing on the rise.
kv joef
Roar Guru
thought some of the racing roarers might like a full form read J-Style for the 4 nippon runners on sat from their database ... Admiral Rakti http://www.jbis.jp/horse/0001093542/record/ Bande http://www.jbis.jp/horse/0001144166/record/ Admire Inazuma http://www.jbis.jp/horse/0001122900/record/ Raizan http://www.jbis.jp/horse/0001141825/record/ and you will get their racetrack profiles here by clicking on the track name. http://japanracing.jp/en/go-racing/jra-racecourses/index.html every little bit helps :).
michael steel
Guest
I was unaware of this but gee $750,000 for a Group 3 - 3 year old race is ridiculous. All I can say is the poor old GROUP 1 Sprinters do it tough with very ordinary prize-money especially when Australia is noted for it's sprinters. It's only a few weeks ago that Buffering beat Lankan Rupee in the $450,000 Group 1 Moir Stakes.
Bradman
Roar Rookie
Thanks for that Kv. Some of the decisions made by racing boards boggle the mind, and this looks to be another...
ray
Guest
Just wanted to add some thoughts on the Catkins disscussion. Her last 12 months have been excellent, but Saturday she meets at least four 4yos, in excellent form that she hasnt competed against before. Catkins will settle up front eyeballing, most likely Sweet Idea. With all this probible new-pressure up front, pipe-smokers are waiting to pounce. She may have the class to hold them off, but right now i reckon she's possibly already looking for the mile. Catkins for mine is no 'Appearance' she's good but not high class. The $2.80 served up fixed is poor value.
kv joef
Roar Guru
it's the old Norman Robinson Stks and usually a reliable lead-in to VicDerby. the prizemoney bump has come this year but before the grade can be elevated from a G3 (it's normal rank), the winners have to prove worthy / top class. Good horses seem to win this race with only a v.few ascending to an consistent open G1 grade as older horses. although it is worth watching with consideration to betting the VicDerby. it is dreadful waste of prizemoney. would have pulled the same field with $200,000. i didn't understand it when they did it and i still don't.
Bradman
Roar Rookie
Looks like some good fields! I've been a fan of catkins, but have really cooled on her this spring. She doesn't look anything near her best. I'll be backing Sweet Idea for this race, she's been ticking over nicely I think looks good for another win. Of the rest, I can't say I've seen many of them, Look forward to seeing them strut their stuff! Also, slightly off topic but I'm curious, can anyone explain to me how the allocation of prize money works in aus? Like here, The classic is allocated $750,000 and is Group3, whereas the other group 3 is down to $150,000, With the two group 2's at $200,000 each. I take it from the name (The caulfield classic) that it's historic, which I guess would explain a bit, I've seen this sort of thing happen before and have been waiting for some good examples like this to ask. I'm not necessarily complaining, I'm legitimately curious is all.
kv joef
Roar Guru
cool evaluation adam. but i do think you are being harsh on Catkins. she has done nothing wrong. She was beaten by Arabian Gold last start who was under 10/1 in the Toorak before an injured performance. Catkin returns the same numbers nearly every-time she goes round and it takes genuine top-class horses to beat her. i don't think Catkins is a good thing but she is going to be there. i wonder what price, over 1400m, a fit Dissident, PDL, Messene, Rebel Dane or Trust in a Gust would be in this. that's who Sweet idea has been mixing it with. She a brilliantly tough, talented mare and to watch her and catkins go toe-to-toe will be a highlight. Diamond Drill is a ? as she has the talent. and the finish to swamp and capable of the required time but ... as for politness, she could prove costly for me but i think i'd prefer to be on the other side of the ledger.
ray
Guest
First thing, bring the Thousand guiness back to Wednesday. The Tristarc Stakes appears to have the leading contenders well under the odds. Catkins although a very good mare could very well be looking for ex dist right now. As too, with a few others. Sweet Idea expected to lead & can steel it. But Enquare is doing nought wrong, possies with probbible cover, may just present, to time it right. 15s is generous right now. And this MARES race should be no shorter than 5s the-field. Lebazz looks to race well fresh, but marks off, for not raced at heath, 6/1 for mine, or i'll seek refreshment. Cant deny form of Lucia for cup. Lidari now rock bottom 13$ & Stipulate at $22 looks value, as he maps well, and they Look to be likely quinnella chances.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
Shamal wind is an interesting one. On her day she is a g1 sprinter definitely, but she usually needs a lot of luck to win. She is well weighted compared to Driefontein with 2.5kgs on her and you would think the pace will be hot with Driefontein and Bel Sprinter contesting it up front. She has a good record at Caulfield, however, there has been a couple of days racing at Caulfield and my view is that there will be a strong leaders bias.. especially over these shorter distances. Will know after the first 2 races!! Not sure what to make of Bel Sprinter. If you told me I could get $11 on him first up at Caulfield 12 months ago I would be laughing all the way to the bank. However his runs in the Autumn were horrendous. Admitedly they were in G1 company, but he didn't look like he was going well. By all reports he has trialled well though and he is back to Caulfield, so pending on how the track is playing he could be worth a bet. I am pretty keen on Kumaon. Will get a soft lead and be hard to stop! Also very keen on sweet Idea for the same reasoning. She should win this. She is a genuine g1 horse and will get perfect conditions to suit her.