The driver market is a beautiful thing. Not only does it keep the Formula One news cycle turning in what is traditionally a barren time of year, it also gives writers the chance to fill countless column inches with phrases like ‘it is understood’ and ‘sources say’.
It’s also fantastic go-to content should any of these final flyaway rounds prove something of a wet squib, let’s say. Ahem.
For a gripping silly season story look no further than this year. As many as nine World Championships may change trophy cabinets come December, but how they may be divvied up remain ambiguous.
Fernando Alonso currently clutches two of those titles and is keen to rehouse them somewhere more likely to provide him a third to complete his collection. Rumours have swirled from the moment this year’s Ferrari was confirmed as something more akin to a limp pony than a prancing horse for the sixth year in succession.
Former Ferrari President Luca Montezemolo said that was enough to make up the Spaniard’s mind.
Depending on whose account you consider most accurate, Fernando and Ferrari’s imminent parting is due to either Fernando activating his contractual right to pack his bags upon the team’s failure to meet its side of the competitive bargain, or because Marco Mattiacci deciding to rid Ferrari of the divisive character in its midst. Talented he may be, but no man can be bigger than Ferrari.
Either way, somewhere between Singapore and Japan the pair pulled the plug. Alonso, the man with the most to lose in a career slowly heading towards its twilight, felt he had the run of what had been a sedate driver market up to that point. With all other drivers seemingly waiting for him to pull the trigger first, he could quietly play the teams against each other to extract the best contract possible before making his Ferrari exit official.
In doing so, however, he failed to consider one important thing: Mattiacci.
Marco Mattiacci, somewhere in that same timeframe, had a message sent to Sebastian Vettel: “we’re ready”. Vettel, with four titles under his belt and nothing left to prove at Red Bull Racing, heard loud and clear. He beat Fernando to the trigger.
Red Bull, with its huge investment into its junior driver programme, was uninterested in entertaining the idea of offering Alonso a contract so immediately promoted Daniil Kvyat, and so one negotiating lever was snatched from Alonso.
Niki Lauda and Toto Wolff similarly confirmed that they are fully intent on keeping their driver line-up at Mercedes. Two levers gone.
Williams renewed its contracts with both of its drivers earlier in the year. Lotus has Pastor Maldonado(‘s cash) locked down until the next ice age and Romain Grosjean has no real alternatives but to stay with the team next season. In any case, they will be powered by the far more competitive Mercedes engine in 2015, so levers four and five out.
With Alonso bobbing helplessly at sea, it is poetic that it is Ron Dennis, the man with whom Alonso had a spectacular falling out with in 2007, is the only man offering a lifeline. Needs must, as they say.
Of course this means that one of either Jenson Button and Kevin Magnussen will have to leave McLaren and quite possibly the sport. With Magnussen nearing the end of a promising rookie season and Button hurtling toward his 35th birthday, one would assume the former would be retained over the latter.
The rub exists in Alonso wanting a one-year deal to keep options open in 2016 when Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes contract expires. McLaren and its new engine partner Honda want a minimum of two. With exactly zero leverage remaining, Fernando is painted into a chrome-coloured corner.
There is, however, a number of tinfoil hat versions doing the rounds. It is understood that sources say that Hamilton, depending on the outcome of his title campaign, may choose to make a sensational return to McLaren to rebuild the team with Honda immediately, rather than assessing the engine’s performance in its first year. That would thus pave the way for Alonso to conclude that Mercedes deal one year earlier than expected.
Furthermore, other sources understand that McLaren, yet to confirm either of its drivers despite needing just one available seat to accommodate Alonso, is angling for the greatest coup of modern times – a powerhouse Alonso–Vettel partnership, to rival the sport’s most famous pairing of Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost. That would leave Button or Magnussen to plead their cases to Maranello for seat.
Said sources appear divided. None of these options can be ruled out, however, and Alonso continues to insist that he alone wields power in the driver market, despite what seems obvious to us. He also reiterated in Russia that, when we learn of his true intentions, we will realise we “should’ve known all along”. What a tease.
But then how many people saw Sebastian Vettel jumping ship early Saturday morning in Suzuka? Another twist like that and 2015 could prove a lucrative year for the tin industry.
Find out if all of this was officially debunked between writing and publishing via Twitter: @MichaelLamonato
Pitbox
Roar Rookie
....and the announcement isn't far away. Put money on it.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Weakest champion in history... Had everyone incorporated the double diffuser in 2009 from the beginning, Button wouldn't have fluke a championship.
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
So dreadful he was world champion.....
Distant Knight
Guest
So who are you saying he will drive for? Assuming you mean McLaren, but it wasn't mentioned.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Imagine Alonso in the Williams...he'd have won multiple races in that car this season
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Reports are confirming Fernando Alonso has signed a three year deal with Honda. No get out clause for 2016. €105m wages over three years. Honda wants Magnussen to be Alonso's team mate in 2015.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Sorry but Button isn't a superstar. He's an average driver. McLaren needs to be dynamic with driver selection. Alonso or Hamilton as lead driver. Then a Grosjean, Magnussen or Hulkenberg to feed of their senior teammate. Thus setting a plan for the future. Button has time and again shown he's dreadful.
Jawad Yaqub
Roar Guru
McLaren could always keep Jenson and have him paired with Fernando to have a 'superstar' line up or whatever, but that would mean putting a premature end to young Kevin's career. I've always been an advocate of McLaren retaining both their current drivers in order to promote consistency in their lineup. But the Fernando/Romain partnership at McLaren is also something that has come across my mind. I rate Romain too, in 2013 he showed that he wasn't that 'first lap nutcase' and even managed to convince his one time critic Mark Webber that he was indeed a solid racer. Sure, Fernando is the best driver on the grid so be it, but his inability to settle down and achieve the results he wants to is starting to get frustrating, And I'm sure the other drivers will agree to that, as it puts questions marks over what their plans for the future might be.
Pitbox
Roar Rookie
If we listen to what Alonso said, its quite easy to see where he will be driving in 2015. As he himself said "it'll be quite obvious". Indeed it already is. "I won't be driving a Mercedes powered car next year". OK, so thats 4 teams out of the equation. It wont be a Ferrari. So that leaves Toro Rosso (ha!), Sauber (bigger HA!) and...well... Caterham/Marussia (no font big enough for the HA that suggestion needs). Its signed, sealed and delivered (a while ago I'd suggest - prior to Japan), just final details to be agreed i.e. performance/get out clauses. And he is now distinctly on the back foot when it comes to negotiating those details because Vettel caught him off guard, nullifying his only bargaining chip i.e. "I've changed my mind i might just stay at Ferrari". In fact, its the same place he would've ended up anyway should he have announced he was leaving Ferrari and had Vettel decided to stay at Red Bull. The bigger question is, of the 2 current drivers which will be Alonso's team mate? I wouldn't be surprised if Vettel's unseen/sudden announcement was actually triggered when he found out Alonso was not only leaving Ferrari but who he was signing for. With 4 titles under his belt, his next challenge was to do a Schumacher and revive a once dominant/classic F1 team. There were 2 in the marketplace that fit those requirements and if Alonso was leaving one of them it left just Ferrari for Vettel to join. Could their have been a straight swap? Unlikely. The last non junior Red Bull driver to be signed by Red Bull was Mark Webber - in 2007.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Ferrari aren't going to axe Kimi a second time. Mattiaci said they are seeing real progress with the Finn. secondly Kimi confirmed yesterday he has an option for 2016 and he will be looking to activate it.
f1nut
Guest
Imagine Alonso in a Mercedes? Bloody hell...
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Yeah, seems like a weird strategy to ditch probably the best driver in the world. I wouldn't be *too* worried about Ferrari's finances, though - the company's never been in a better financial state and they already have a couple of handy guys on their books, particularly James Allison. Definitely agree on the Hamilton/Rosberg psychology point, though. I think Mercedes did more damage than good by publicly blaming Nico so strongly after Belgium.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Nice one! I 100 per cent rate Grosjean, and also approve of new tin foil option number three: Grosjean to McLaren. That's my second favourite after an Alonso move to Mercedes.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Ha, earth dreams! Those were the days... Grosjean, for me, is probably the most underrated driver out there. I rate him more highly than Hulkenberg for what I'll call his 'Ricciardo-ness' - a really great ability to make conscious efforts to improve. It's a huge injustice he's been saddled with that Lotus this year. I hope that changes (team or car performance...) next season.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
Yes i does strike me as odd that they would pay more for Seb then they would for Fred... But then again, Ferrari have a long history of making stupid decisions and wasting Fiat $$
Mark Young
Roar Guru
I rate Grosjean These are his 'Button' years - remember Jenson tooling about for two years in the rubbish My Earth Dreams Honda? He'll be back!
f1nut
Guest
I agree that I'm glad we have this to talk about because I dont hold much hope for exciting racing for the rest of the season. Hamilton def seems to have Rosberg covered and Rosberg seems a little intimidated which has him making mistakes like Suzuka and Sochi. On a tangent, I am really worried about Ferrari. The best they could do is ditch Raikonnen and have an Alonso/Vettel team. If they swap Alonso for Vettel they will be firther from the podium in my opinion. And if the rumours are true and they are spending 80 million on Vettel (who is not the driver Alonso is) how much will they have left to spend and improving the car (which is the real issue in my opinion).
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Alonso is close friends with Grosjean. Actually one of the very few drivers Alonso is actually friends with. Alonso never blamed Grosjean for the Spa wipe out, that you rightly state cost him the world championship. But Grosjean is a different driver since that crash and the birth of his child.
SM
Guest
This is same Grosjean who arguably cost Alonso the world title at Spa a couple of years ago. Don't think Alonso would want to be anywhere near the bloke.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Romain Grosjean's only option isn't Lotus-Mercedes. Grosjean's manager is Eric Bouiller, so if Alonso joins McLaren, Grosjean could be the man to partner Alonso. Alonso and Grosjean, many moons ago, where teammates at Renault.