Will Manning's TD record ever be broken?

By Sam Rigney / Expert

It’s arguably the most iconic of all the individual records in the National Football League and it’s found a permanent new home.

Peyton Manning tossed career touchdowns 507, 508, 509 and 510 in the Denver Broncos’ rout of the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, bypassing legendary quarterback Brett Favre for all-time passing touchdown king.

The 38-year-old gunslinger pulled within one of Favre on a three-yard touchdown pass to Emanuel Sanders in the first quarter.

He found an open Wes Welker on the next drive to equal Favre’s mark and the record-breaker went to Demaryius Thomas with three minutes and nine seconds remaining in the second quarter, to give the Broncos a 21-3 lead.

Manning added another touchdown to Thomas early in the third quarter just for good measure and showed he is not done adding to his impressive total. In fact, at the rate Peyton is going the total could be 550 or more by the time the ageless quarterback finally calls time on his Hall of Fame career.

The ball to Thomas had barely left his hand when the debate started. Will anyone ever get close to breaking the record again?

To give you an idea of how impressive both Manning and Favre’s numbers are, Drew Brees – who has played in New Orleans’ potent offense for nine years and San Diego before that – sits in fourth spot on the all-time list on 374, 136 touchdowns behind Manning’s current total.

Brees will be 36 before the Super Bowl next year and has maybe two or three years left in the league. If he plays until he is 40 he would need 40 touchdowns each year to get even close.

Tom Brady has 372 and is 37, a year younger than Manning. He has had an incredible career, but his years of throwing 30 or more touchdowns a season are behind him.

The only other active players in the top 25 are Eli Manning (243) and Philip Rivers (238), both are 33 and would need about 40 touchdowns a season until they were 40 just to match Manning’s current mark.

The next ranked current players include Ben Roethlisberger (32 years old and 227 TD), Tony Romo (34 and 222) and Carson Palmer (35 and 219).

They are all too far away with too few years left.

Even those younger quarterbacks who have come into the league during an aerial renaissance over recent years are at incredibly long odds to get anywhere near the 500 mark. Matt Ryan is 29 and has 166 touchdowns, Joe Flacco is the same age with 135 and Jay Cutler is 31 with 169.

The only current players with the offensive weapons and credentials to make a run are Matthew Stafford (26 and 118), Aaron Rodgers (31 and 206) and Andrew Luck (25 and 65).

But they would need to put together more than a decade of injury-free near flawless quarterback play to even be mentioned in the same conversation.

There is no doubt Manning has been blessed with excellent receivers throughout his career, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison in Indianapolis and Demaryius and Julius Thomas in Denver.

But you cannot overlook his exceptional talent, durability, decision-making and the consistency he has shown throughout his 17-year NFL career.

Manning has played every game of every season, save for 2011 when he required spinal fusion surgery. He has thrown at least 26 touchdowns every season, including passing for at least 30 touchdowns eight times, 40 touchdowns twice and 55 touchdowns during his 2013 NFL MVP season.

He is a student of the game and has an incredible hunger for competition. He could have retired when his spinal injury kept him out in 2011. Instead he changed teams, broke records and claimed the MVP. The fact Manning reached Favre’s record so swiftly, in his 246th game – 56 fewer than it took Favre – is a testament to the career rejuvenation he has experienced in Denver.

If he wins a Super Bowl with the Broncos this season then he may well retire, leaving the record somewhere around the 540 mark. If the Broncos are unsuccessful again, Manning might go around another year. The Broncos know they only have a small window for success and he certainly isn’t regressing any. He is still throwing considerably more touchdowns than picks, a feat most starting quarterbacks would be proud of.

If the Broncos can keep protecting him and saving him from contact, Manning may play into his 40s, forging out a total touchdown record that no one will ever get near.

That remains to be seen but one thing that is clear, if there is someone out there who is going to break Manning’s record he has not yet played a down in the NFL.

The Crowd Says:

2014-10-23T07:00:08+00:00

Brin Paulsen

Roar Guru


He's the Messiah of Cleveland... which I think colloquially equates to being the next head coach of the Wallabies

AUTHOR

2014-10-23T02:25:40+00:00

Sam Rigney

Expert


Thanks Brin. Excellent point re the softening league rules from yourself and mushi. The game is likely only going to get easier for QBs - given they are so important to the NFL's popularity and success - over the next few years so that will definitely help Luck's chances. But he needs consistent 30 plus TD seasons. Injury to himself or other players on the offense can put a dent in his chances.

2014-10-22T03:28:07+00:00

Distant Knight

Guest


Let's just see if he ever starts a game first...

2014-10-22T03:06:37+00:00

mushi

Guest


Brin I'm starting to wonder if you're on a per comment payment plan for Johnny!

2014-10-22T00:21:12+00:00

Brin Paulsen

Roar Guru


Another nice article Sam. Glad the Roar boys recognised your talents and gave you the bump to expert. Congrats and well deserved. One thing that I would point out, which you briefly touched on, is the change in league rules over the past five years that have made it easier for teams to be successful in the passing game. Defensive holding, pass interference and hits on unprotected receiver rule changes have all contributed to a growth trend in QB stats in the past half decade. In theory this should make Manning's record easier to break in the future but as you say, 17 years of Quarterbacking, 15 of which were at an elite level, will be extraordinarly hard to replicate. I'm with the rest of the sheep in thinking that Luck is the only current QB that has a genuine chance but there is a dark horse that no one has mentioned yet... Johnny Football!

2014-10-21T22:47:29+00:00

Frankie321

Roar Rookie


Sorry, typo, meant "threw".

2014-10-21T22:06:24+00:00

mushi

Guest


Some one will eventually break it just because the rules look after the QB a lot more these days meaning pocket passers should have a better shot at long healthy careers. As farve said the record really is about longevity and prodcution so you need to be in passing offence and have the tools to play into your late 30s. Luck is the best shot but there will be others after him.

2014-10-21T20:04:24+00:00

Professor Rosseforp

Guest


I would say the best chance of breaking the record would be Jarryd Hayne, no worries. Once he's had a game or two to get used to the rules, he'll be throwing, receiving, offending, defending and goal-kicking like nobody's business.

2014-10-21T09:45:40+00:00

Tim

Guest


What do you mean "through"?

2014-10-21T08:52:37+00:00

Steve

Guest


Agree with others suggesting that Luck is the only chance (to even get close) of the current crop of QBs. Luck has the advantage of playing lots of games each year in a dome...which has obvious advantages if you're looking to throw for lots of TDs!

AUTHOR

2014-10-21T08:50:20+00:00

Sam Rigney

Expert


Just found an interesting article and probability tool here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/10/20/andrew-luck-has-the-best-chance-at-breaking-peyton-mannings-record-heres-why/

AUTHOR

2014-10-21T08:48:35+00:00

Sam Rigney

Expert


Biding his time behind Favre arguably made Rodgers a much better player because he wasn't forced straight into a starting role, but it did mean he was a few years older than most QBs are when they get their start. Luck and Peyton are very similar, both good at the line of scrimmage, good decision making etc. Luck would be my bet, but lots of time for things to change between now and then.

2014-10-21T07:38:11+00:00

Frankie321

Roar Rookie


I really enjoyed watching the game where Peyton Manning through for the all time touchdown passing record. Unforgettable.

2014-10-21T03:14:03+00:00

Big Steve

Guest


I thought Rogers would be closer. But as chop said the injuries have played a part. Its also not a really high scoring offence. I watch the IND v HOU game last week. Luck is a great player, and has some great WR's and is in a very weak division right now. He needs to stay healthy for a long time but its possible but I still think unlikely.

2014-10-21T02:58:04+00:00

Chop

Roar Guru


I think the only current threat is Andrew Luck. Aaron Rogers has missed to many games over the last two seasons to get there. Roethlisberger, Flacco, Ryan are all to far behind. Palmer and Brady are too old and there are no other real threats. I hope Peyton does get another ring before he retires, so he's at least on the same footing as his brother Eli. Payton is 10 times the QB but hasn't had the same playoff success.

2014-10-21T01:57:20+00:00

Worlds Biggest

Guest


Hard to see anyone breaking that record, ironically perhaps Andrew Luck if he plays well into his 30's is the only player that could. Having watched the game yesterday, ( painful being a Niners fan ) he is still throwing the ball well. He still throws some wobbly ones but the pass to D Thomas for the 40 yarder was a thing of beauty. I think if the Broncs win it all he will retire.

Read more at The Roar