We are officially halfway through the NFL regular season, so what better way to mark the occasion than by making a few bold predictions and handing out some mid-season awards.
Since 2011, the league has held NFL Honors – the annual awards presentation – on the night before the Super Bowl at the game’s host city.
The event boasts a long list of categories, but I’m going to cut through all of the pomp and pageantry and just bring you the essentials.
So let’s take a gander into the crystal ball and see who could take out some of the game’s top individual honours come February.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin
Questions about his ability to block, run sharp routes and concerns about his propensity to drop passes shrouded Benjamin in the pre-season. But the 1.96-metre pass-catcher out of Florida State has cast all that aside to become the focal point of the Carolina Panthers offense.
Benjamin has snagged five touchdowns and racked up 571 yards in eight games, very similar numbers to fourth-overall pick Sammy Watkins. He was the fifth wide receiver selected in the 2014 draft, but so far Benjamin has been the most consistent in a deep class of exciting rookies.
Honourable mention: Sammy Watkins
Defensive Rookie of the Year: CJ Mosley
Ever since Baltimore lost legendary linebacker Ray Lewis to retirement following their successful tilt at the 2013 Super Bowl, the Ravens have been searching for someone to provide similar leadership and production. When Alabama linebacker CJ Mosley fell to them with the 17th pick in the 2014 draft the Ravens swooped.
Eight games into his NFL career, they have not been disappointed. Mosley leads Baltimore and all rookies in tackles (76) and is fourth overall. His best game as a pro came in the Ravens 20-13 loss to the Colts when he had 15 tackles, an interception and a pass deflection.
Honourable mention: Kyle Fuller
Rookie of the Year: Sammy Watkins
I was all set to give this award to Benjamin, until Watkins exploded over the last few weeks. It’s hard to split the pair statistically, but the difference is Watkins has produced in the clutch and won games for the Bills, while Benjamin’s stats have been largely inflated in garbage time.
The Bills are 5-3 and have looked good over the past fortnight, as the Clemson All-American has clicked into gear with veteran Kyle Orton under centre.
Honourable mention: Kelvin Benjamin
Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning
Peyton Manning is 38 and incapable of a bad game. How many quarterbacks can you say that about? In the twilight of his career, Manning is tied with Andrew Luck for most touchdown passes (22), leads the league in passer rating (119) and has only thrown three interceptions on 252 attempts. He is averaging 300 passing yards and three touchdowns a game and is on target for about 4800 yards and 50 touchdowns, only slightly down on his record-setting 2013 season.
If you compare Manning to legendary gunslinger Brett Favre during the same period of his career, Favre was throwing touchdowns, but he was also throwing picks. An NFL quarterback can be a bit like a heavyweight boxer, they don’t know when their career is over until they get knocked out a few times.
Favre’s career ended like this, throwing 11 touchdowns and 19 intercepts in his final year in the league. But Manning is the exception to the rule, more like the TV show Seinfeld. I can see him going out on top.
Honourable mention: DeMarco Murray
Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt
Watt has played so well this season that some pundits have suggested he could be the first defensive player in nearly 30 years to claim the MVP. He has two defensive touchdowns and an offensive score as well as seven sacks, a forced fumble, three fumble recoveries, an interception, five stuffs and seven pass deflections.
He won this award in 2012 after putting up video game numbers (20.5 sacks, 16 swatted balls, 81 tackles, 23 tackles for loss), but still missed out on claiming the MVP nod because Adrian Peterson fell nine-yards short of breaking the single-season rushing record. Watt is a special player, the complete package at defensive end, and boasts incredible athleticism, speed, strength, motor and intelligence.
Honourable mention: Von Miller
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians
I wrote a piece last week discussing the confounding record of the Arizona Cardinals and how – despite using three quarterbacks, struggling statistically on both sides of the ball and suffering a host of key injuries – they were 5-1. Well, after holding off the Eagles at home in Week 8 they are 6-1 and boast the equal best record in the league.
You can’t have both those distractions and a winning record without a strong leader. In 2012, Arians took over the reins in Indianapolis when Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia, leading the Colts to a 9-3 record and a playoff berth. Arians stepped up to head coach role with the Colts sitting at 1-2 and his nine regular season wins that followed are the most by an interim head coach in NFL history.
On the back of that success he was given the Cardinals top job and led Arizona to a 10-6 record in a tough NFC West Division in 2013. This season he has the Cardinals atop the division on the back of a simple formula of run defense, a good turnover ratio and a solid special teams.
Honourable mention: Jason Garrett
Comeback Player of the Year: Rolando McClain
An All–American at Alabama, McClain has battled a host of discipline issues on and off the field since he was drafted eighth overall by the Oakland Raiders in 2010. A fiery linebacker with a tendency to make simple errors and poor decisions during his first three years in the league, McClain has blossomed at the Cowboys under head coach Jason Garrett.
His journey to the middle of the Dallas linebacker core has included an arrest over a shooting incident, being kicked out of practice, quitting the Raiders, retiring from the NFL at 24 and then making a comeback. The Cowboys acquired McClain in July this year and since then he has been a revelation in a surprisingly good Cowboys defense.
Honourable mention: Von Miller
Fantasy Player of the Year: Demarco Murray
If you drafted Murray this season then nice work, chances are you’re near the top of your NFL fantasy league. He has been that dominant. The bloke leading the league I’m in at work hasn’t looked at his team once. He wouldn’t know his password, let alone the fact Murray has rushed him to a 6-2 record.
Running backs are never going to score as many points as elite quarterbacks (especially in leagues which award six points for a passing touchdown), but Murray is averaging 19.1 fantasy points a game and leads the next best back by more than three points (Matt Forte, 15.9 ppg)
Honourable mention: Andrew Luck
NFL MVP: Peyton Manning
DeMarco Murray may be a popular choice to unseat Manning for this award, but the fact is the fourth-year back’s monster numbers are largely the result of running behind that dominant offensive line. Meanwhile, Manning doesn’t rely on others to improve his game, he just meticulously goes about making his receivers and backs look phenomenal. His value is not just through the passing game, but his play selection, clock management, decision making and high football IQ.
Manning is so good at dissecting defences he makes average running backs look like Barry Sanders. He is a perfectionist and demands the same from his teammates. When the Broncos signed Manning in 2012, they went from being a playoff team to a perennial Super Bowl contender. Since then John Elway has added talent around Peyton in a bid to capture that elusive second championship for the man known as ‘The Sheriff’.
Before Peyton does that he should add his NFL record sixth league MVP. To give you an idea of Manning’s dominance over the past decade, the only other current player with more than one is Tom Brady (2).
Honourable mention: JJ Watt
Cameron Palmer
Roar Guru
Hi Sam, A couple of weeks late in finding this piece I know, but I have to disagree with your call for MVP. Has to be Andrew Luck. It is easy to look at Manning and say that he has never played so well at 38, BUT he has never had the weapons like he has this year. The Thomas's, Welker, Emmanuel Sanders, Ball (before injury) and a stacked offensive line mean that he gets all the time in the world and can basically throw the ball anywhere on the field and know that there is a player that is going to come down with it. Demariyus, Welker and Sanders were all considered good wide receivers before coming to Manning. It is not like Manning has made them any better other than being in a loaded offense giving them better looks. Put simply if you put any of the other 31 quarterbacks on Denver I would reckon at least 20-25 of them get to the playoffs with that offence and the improved defence Now look at Andrew Luck. He has helped develop TY Hilton to a top 10 wide receiver, he has developed two quality tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, he has made unheralded rookies Donte Moncrief and Griff Whalan important pieces of the team. Trent Richardson has even been made to look dangerous while Ahmad Bradshaw is having a career year in the passing game. The offensive line in front of him is fairly young and definitely not at the same level as the one at Denver and even the Denver defence is better than the one at Indianapolis. Chuck and his crew have taken Chip Kelly's offensive ideas to a whole new level and are running the fastest offence that the NFL has ever seen. The offence runs a very different scheme to that when Luck entered the league just three years ago. And finally, ask any NFL fan who they fear most late in a game and the answer is Luck. You never feel like you have the Colts beaten while Luck is there. So Luck is playing with a weaker team on both sides of the ball. Has made weaker players in the offence better. Has had to lead an offensive revolution. In just his third year has had to shoulder the responsibility of leader. Oh and is leading the league in most offensive categories. Finally do the same scenario again. Put the other 31 Quarterbacks on the Colts and I reckon another 10 would be lucky to make the playoffs and I doubt any could run the scheme to the results the way he has. He is the most important player to his team in the league. LUCK... MVP.
Pete McAloney
Roar Pro
Great article Sam and solid choices. Bloody Demarco Murray sunk my fantasy team last week, even though I racked up a decent score.
Steve
Guest
Agree. For mine, Murray is offensive player of the year (thus far). Although that's not saying Manning is anything other than a phenomenon...his level of play and consistency of play at 38 is amazing. Can't support Sam's 'never has a bad game' line though. They're rare, but they happen...Broncos at Patriots last season was capital 'B' bad.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
If McClain does actually win this award it will be a hell of a comeback. I thought he was washed up and a complete bust. He was a stud at Bama, hope he fulfills his talent.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Hard to disagree with many of those although I think I would have gone for DeMarco for the offensive player award and just left Peyton with the MVP. As good as Manning has been he is actually a little down on last year and Murray has actually broken running back records.