Melbourne Cup 2014: Your guess as good as my Cavalryman

By Andrew Lemon / Expert

The last time I backed Cavalryman to win the Melbourne Cup was in 2012. Ridden by everyone’s favourite international jockey Frankie Dettori he duly finished 12th to Green Moon at odds of 30/1.

Undaunted, I look carefully through the form guide again in this year’s Melbourne Cup.

History may repeat itself on Tuesday, except for Green Moon read Fawkner or, raced in the same interests, even outsider Sea Moon.

Still, there are few worse feelings in race-watching than changing lanes and seeing the other lane move faster. In other words, for my self-respect, it is probably better to lose again on Cavalryman than to risk him winning without me.

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There are some reasons for renewed optimism with Cavalryman. The main one is that Craig Williams is riding, not Frankie Dettori. I like the way Williams rides at Flemington.

The early market says I am dreaming. Cavalryman is 30/1 again. Racing never lets you have your turn. It does not work that way. Sometimes you just get lucky.

So the fact that a top jockey such as Williams, still at the top of his form, has never won a Melbourne Cup is no guarantee that he will ever win one.

You know the stories. Scobie Breasley never won a Melbourne Cup. Darren Gauci hasn’t ridden one despite near misses. George Moore, Geoff Lane, the list is long.

Ron Hutchinson was one of our all time greats, but never got his turn to win the Melbourne Cup. He famously decided to give up his regular mount Macdougal just before the Queensland horse won the 1959 Cup.

Craig Williams was certainly unlucky when he missed out on the winning Melbourne Cup ride, through suspension, on Dunaden three years ago, in the season when he had already taken the Caulfield Cup (Southern Speed) and Cox Plate (Pinker Pinker).

It does not mean it is his turn to win a Melbourne Cup now. But he does have the skill and the motivation, if the horse can do his part.

Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has been trying to win a Melbourne Cup for a long time too, for the stable now officially known as Godolphin Management Company. They have had several near misses, but that’s not to say that it will be their turn this year.

The other Godolphin horse worth watching is Willing Foe, who is only eight. Again the stable has gone for local riding talent and has engaged James McDonald who will give the horse every chance.

Like Americain, winner in 2010, Willing Foe is a son of the late Dynaformer, himself a son of the famous English Derby winner Roberto. Dynaformer was a top sire in the US, boasting 2006 Kentucky Derby hero Barbaro among his progeny.

By coincidence I found myself as a tourist at Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky on the day when they were giving a ceremonial burial to the old sire Dynaformer who’d reached the fine age of 27.

His strapper was in tears, and had tucked a rose into the door of his stall. That’s a stupid reason for me to back a horse, but I suppose I will have to include Willing Foe among my selections.

What about Red Cadeaux – twice the unluckiest placegetter in a Melbourne Cup?

Alas this is not about fairness or taking turns. Don’t worry too much that nine-year-olds have never won a Cup. Red Cadeaux is only eight when he is north of the equator. So is Cavalryman for that matter.

Red Cadeaux faces a much worse history hoodoo than any other contestant on Tuesday. Horses have won Melbourne Cups after two or more previous failures if unplaced – but none has ever won after two or more minor placegettings.

Shadow King is the most famous example. He never got his turn. Third to Phar Lap, second to White Nose, third to Peter Pan and second to Hall Mark.

Another perennial placegetter from the same era, the 1930s, was Sarcherie. Two seconds and a third in four years. Never a win.

Quite a few horses have been twice placed in a Melbourne Cup. None has ever gone on to win the race.

As The Roar correspondents like to point out, Cup records are there to be broken. Ask Makybe Diva.

And why haven’t I mentioned Ryan Moore yet after giving him the big write-up before the Cox Plate? This weekend, he is in California trying to bring home more winners at the rich US Breeders Cup meeting at Santa Anita.

Then he is going to get back on a plane and return to Australia to ride Protectionist in the Melbourne Cup. He has done this jet-setting before but I’ve been around for long enough to think it is a bit unhealthy.

Put it this way: he is not doing Protectionist or himself any favours with this preparation. Ryan Moore is a racing ironman and will surely be close in the finish, but it makes me nervous.

So this is a cop-out, but the only expert advice I can give is that the 2014 Melbourne Cup, as is so often the case, is a lottery when you look at it a day or two ahead.

It must be someone’s turn but I’m not sure whose. We’ll know after the event.

Back or barrack for a horse or jockey who you would like to see win, a trainer or even an owner. If that means Bart or Zac or Moody and Nolen, if it means Danny Weir, or Waller, or Red Cadeaux, or Boss or the Scholfields, Lucia or Brambles or Hughie Bowman, then just go for it.

Enjoy the privilege of seeing many of the world’s best stayers, best jockeys and trainers, competing on our home turf.

Just don’t put the house on it. It’s the Melbourne Cup, not science. The best horse doesn’t always win.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2014-11-03T21:47:56+00:00

Andrew Lemon

Expert


Out he goes. At least no-one can blame me for losing their money on Cavalryman, or Sea Moon for that matter. So the selection now is Fawkner from Lucia Valentina and Admire Ratki. Protectionist for 4th, Willing Foe my sentimental roughie. Good luck all.

2014-11-03T15:04:55+00:00

Scuba

Guest


I heard Williams claim that about Cavalryman's last 1000 in the 2012 Cup. If that's right he must have run sensational time from the 1000 to the 300 because a few - including the horse you say should be 500/1 - ran over the top of him in the last furlong.

2014-11-03T13:34:32+00:00

Mark from Derby

Guest


Hi Andrew, If you watch the replay of Cavalrymans last Melbourne cup run you will see that his last 1000m was faster than any other horse. It was one of the worst cup rides in history. I hope his fetlock is ok. To me it is a cup where the top 10 or 11 in the market are miles better than the rest. I cant see anything over 30-1 getting close to the top 11. I think there are 11 horses here that should be 500-1 and I love you Bart but Precedence is one of them. He peaked 3 years ago.

AUTHOR

2014-11-03T12:38:20+00:00

Andrew Lemon

Expert


Holding my breath for Cavalryman. If he's out it's hard to tip past the favourites. Fawkner nearly broke the record in the Cox Plate and his 2012 Caulfield Cup win was three seconds faster than this year's CC (where both Rakti and Lucia were admittedly impressive). Fawkner loves Flemington and Nicholas Hall has the incentive to emulate his father Greg on Subzero. If you think Lloyd Williams has had his turn already, couldn't agree more, but refer to article above re Turns. Team deserves credit for placing Fawkner so well.

2014-11-03T11:55:04+00:00

michael steel

Guest


Andrew , If Cavalryman is passed fit to run I think you have made the right decision to stick with him. Two Group 2 wins in his last three starts and a career of constant Group 3, 2 and 1 racing.

2014-11-03T08:55:30+00:00

Scuba

Guest


Cavalryman in trouble - swollen fetlock.

2014-11-03T07:49:00+00:00

ray

Guest


It's one of those things attachment to certain horses. I think it was Steve Moran who nearly always tipped Star of the realm' to win the 3yo features in the early 90s. But with sentimentality and some hard thought logic, and a dose of luck, all horses need that. I think Ladari has a chance to figure in the finish. Now why: Ladari was backed in quite heavily in the Caufield cup. Got a nice posie. His last 150 metres he seemed to tire. Maybe looking for even longer. But Ladari has a real likeing for Headquarters, He is drawn for the sweetest of runs just behind the leading bunch. But there is i believe an x-factor, not a capitol x, but x, nun the less. Ladari loves the very firm going. The Heath a fortnight ago was on times bearly a dead 4, his best cannot be displayed, the punters backing him, had the faith. So if it's a genuine good 3 tommorrow, Ladari will have the optimum conditions to perform his best. At around the 50s a small wager each way is worth a speculation.

2014-11-03T00:17:02+00:00

sheek

Roar Guru


Andrew, As you know, toughest race to predict, which is why the pros generally stay away. Let the mugs blow their dough once a year, or have the occasional win. A horse can have all the form in the world, get the run of the race, but fail to run the last 200m, a la So You Think 2010. It's a nightmare to pick.

AUTHOR

2014-11-02T23:52:43+00:00

Andrew Lemon

Expert


All true. Rakti was super admirable at Caulfield and is logical favourite. I worry that the race was slow, not that he set the pace. But don't forget Red Cadeaux (2nd) was 60-1 in last year's Melb Cup and (2nd) 50-1 when pixelled out in 2011, Green Moon (1st) 20-1 in 2012, Viewed (1st) 40-1 in 2009. When Fiorente ran second to Green Moon he paid $11.20 a place. Not all the professional punters were on these ones. So there is hope for a big run from any sentimental favourite of your own.

2014-11-02T22:59:39+00:00

sheek

Roar Guru


Andrew, What a lovely read, thoroughly enjoyed it. What makes this Cup unusual, which also means we can toss a lot of 'theories' out the window, is the "Dad's Army" collection of golden oldies. When you've got a whole bunch of oldies racing each other, well, one of them just might get up! However, having read the thoughts of a professional punter in The Australian on the weekend, he says there's a reason why horses are favourites. Fancy that? It's because their form says so. Which is why I Admire Rakti. ;-) For today, anyway. Tomorrow i might pick another horse entirely.....

2014-11-02T21:59:57+00:00

Brent Ford

Roar Guru


I too was on the last Cavalryman train, it didn't get very far but I can't leave him out this time.

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