We’ve been through two thoroughly entertaining weeks of the Four Nations, and at this stage, absolutely nobody’s position in the final is safe. Neither is any team out of the hunt.
With that in mind, here’s my you-beaut, guaranteed guide to how each team can make or miss the final.
New Zealand
The Kiwis’ situation is, not surprisingly, the best – they’ll make the final with anything better than a 10-point loss to England. A 10-point win to the Poms is the point at which England’s differential is better than New Zealand’s.
Although New Zealand’s differential is 18 points better than England’s (+20 against +2), every point England wins by would drag that gap two points in the Poms’ favour.
If the Kiwis do lose by 10 or more, they’re still a chance of holding onto their final berth if Australia doesn’t beat Samoa. And if New Zealand lose by more than 10 and Australia win, the combined margin of the two games needs to be greater than 34 for Australia to usurp New Zealand.
To sum up, for the Kiwis to miss the final the following must happen:
England
The Poms are in a slightly odd place. They could beat the Kiwis and miss the final, and they could lose and still make the final.
The only way for England to guarantee a final berth is to beat New Zealand by at least 10 points. Anything less than this leaves them behind New Zealand on for and against, and hoping for a shock Samoan win. If England win by less than 10, and Australia beat Samoa, the Kangaroos’ victory margin must exceed England’s by at least 17 points to knock England out.
If England lose, they need a Samoan win to give them a chance. The combined margin of a Kiwi win over England and a Samoan upset would need to be less than eight points to keep England in the final. If England lose and Australia win, England is out, having only won one game to Australia’s two.
Australia
A win to Australia does not guarantee their progression, but a loss kills their hopes. As Samoa’s differential is better than Australia’s, a Samoan win finishes Australia’s tournament.
What the Kangaroos need to progress depends on what happens between England and New Zealand:
Samoa
Yes, they can make it. A win over Australia (despite the fact it would be the biggest upset in international rugby league history) would give them hope. They also need England to lose, and the combined margin of the two games would need to be at least eight points.
So there we have it. All four teams go into this weekend with everything to play for.
toby
Guest
Every time I think international league is expanding I then see 62,0000 attend a rugby test match in Chicago when we barely got 20,000 in Australia for a game between the 2 biggest and oldest rivals in international rugby league surely one of the smallest crowds ever to watch a game between these two heavy weights of the international game.Embarrassing!! If Wales and France cant force there way into the four nations, country's that actually have a strong domestic competition instead of Samoa who are mostly new Zealand and Australia born or the very least residence of these country's i fear for the future of our international game. perhaps we need a rule where 10 players from the domestic competition need to be in the squad to participate in the four nations or world cups
DSF
Guest
If the final was to be samoa vs nz, I think we might see a sold out cake-tin. Aus and eng wont sell as well unless the final was held in aus. Im hoping the toa can cause the upset but with the halves they have I cant see it happening, hopefully ben roberts and stanley get the drop for godinet and tuimaivave or faamanu brown.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
The fact that people can even contemplate a Samoan win over Australia is a massive sign on the value of what this tournament has brought to international league thus far.
Boomshanka
Guest
Here's hoping for a neutral ref to adjudicate Sundays match. Would love to see Samoa get up.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Yeah I have to say, Samoa winning a 4 Nations Tournament would be massive for Rugby League in the Pacific Islands. Up here in PNG the locals are loving how competitive Samoa is, it is giving them confidence that their own team can improve and compete like this. Great for the game internationally.
Go warriors
Guest
Very exciting weekend of footy ahead. I am hoping for a NZ Samoa final.