Experience vs potential in McLaren driver decision

Formula One is a numbers game – and the sport’s penchant for numbers following dollar symbols is particularly well noted.

The commercial rights holders have stacks of the stuff while the teams – literally, in some cases – simply cannot get enough of it. Money keeps the Formula One world turning.

Surprise was in limited supply, then, when rumours placed Fernando Alonso’s much-mythicised return to McLaren in the eye-watering eight-figure range. Estimates are between £25 million and £32 million per season, thank you very much.

The unprecedented driver sum – between AU$45 million and AU$60 million – would make the double world champion one of the top three highest paid athletes in the world. Not bad for a 33-year-old.

This particular 33-year-old is perhaps the greatest driver in the world, of course, and as such has certain bargaining power when it comes to selling his services – but considering McLaren has been void of a title sponsor for an entire season and without a win for two, it will have undoubtedly raised question marks over this considerable bit of expenditure.

The push for Alonso has come from Honda as it prepares to re-enter Formula One next year as McLaren’s – and McLaren’s alone – engine supplier. It wanted the biggest name possible to lead its charge back to the pinnacle of motor racing, and it seems it’s about to claim its prize.

With the Spaniard on the brink of signing on the dotted line, and presumably similarly close to extricating himself from frustrations of his still-enforceable Ferrari contract, one obstacle continues to obstruct the path to the grand launch of McLaren Honda – the team’s second driver.

Only one of the currently contracted Jenson Button and Kevin Magnussen will make it to 2015 with the Woking squad, and Ron Dennis and Eric Boullier must now agonise over to whom will a deal be offered.

The case for Jenson is obvious. He’s a classy driver and a world champion with 15 years of F1 experience. He also has history with the team and a relationship with Honda from its days as a constructor in the mid-to-late 2000s.

Moreover, over the course of the season thus far Button has outscored Magnussen by a factor of almost two to one, taking home 106 points to the Dane’s 55. All the numbers appear to favour Button’s bid.

But the Saturday statistics enrich the story. Magnussen has outqualified Button 10 times from 18 attempts in his first F1 season – a significant tick in the Kevin box against his experienced teammate.

Qualifying, being a demonstration of pure speed, is often a good indicator of a driver’s potential. While racecraft can be perfected, there is no substitute for natural ability.

Magnussen has all the signifiers of a quality driver.

So on the one hand both McLaren and Honda are keen to ensure they maximise development time from now and into their partnership’s first season. Button, as a proven talent, certainly fits this criterion.

On the other hand Magnussen is a long-term investment alongside Alonso, who seems to have only tentatively signed for the team in lieu of no vacancies at Mercedes. Presumably he’ll only improve with experience.

At a time when the decision is proving extraordinarily difficult, enter a curveball factor -Jenson appears to have near universal support to drive on in 2015.

Legions of fans have flooded social media channels in support of their 2009 champion, and the press has expressed its own collective desire to see the paddock popular man stick around for at least another season.

On top of all of that Jenson has the tick of approval from two of the sport’s most respected competitors.

The first of those is Lewis Hamilton, his former McLaren teammate, who was shocked to learn Button could be forced from the sport.

“Jenson is better than most drivers here,” he said. “He’s a great driver. So it doesn’t correlate.”

“If I had a team I would want him in it. He’s a great asset for any team.”

The second, perhaps crucial, testimonial came from potential future teammate Fernando Alonso.

“Hopefully he stays,” said Alonso. “He’s a very talented driver…but also he is a great character and a great person.”

“I think people like him are good for our sport.”

This outpouring of support for the Englishman is indicative of the peculiar question McLaren is posing itself: to sack or not to sack a world champion?

The decision carries additional weight with the knowledge that there are no alternative seats for Button to fill in the sport, giving McLaren the chance to claim the dubious title of one of the few teams to wilfully end the career of a world title holder.

It’s an extraordinarily difficult call for Kevin Magnussen, of course, for he is equally unlikely to find another drive for 2015 so late in the season despite being obviously talented.

However, though he easily outranks the outlying pay drivers of the field, is Magnussen cut from the same cloth as the sport’s next generation of superstars in Daniil Kvyat, Valtteri Bottas or Dan Ricciardo? Retaining him, after all, could only be to make him a team leader in a post-Alonso era. Will he be up to that task?

But this sport, as always, is a numbers game. For all the arguments in the Button column, Magnussen has a one meaningfully small one in his.

Fernando’s contract has already broken the bank and, put simply, Magnussen is cheaper; cheaper almost by a factor of every year more experience Button has over him. Ironically it could be Button’s aptitude to fill the void that undoes him.

Michael is on Twitter: @MichaelLamonato