How Ireland's '60 per cent men' will beat Australia

This weekend the Guinness-swilling underdogs from the Emerald Isle go up against the top-ranking, SANZAR-dominating, twice-Rugby World Cup winning Wallabies.

Oh wait, hang on, better start again.

As Ireland head for a tense showdown with Michael Cheika’s Australia, the Six Nations-winning, Argentine-series champs have just downed South Africa for a fourth time out of eight meetings, and are sitting pretty in third spot on the IRB rankings – a spot held previously by the lower-ranked Wallabies.

This won’t do at all. Ireland are looking decidedly non-underdoglike, with nine wins out of ten in 2014, and a couple of prize scalps on their belt, including the Boks and the French on their home patch in Paris.

Similarly, Australia have a home Bok game and three-game series win over the French on their ledger, but got undone by Argentina in their last Rugby Championship match.

This November, they put the Welsh away for the umpteenth time, but came unstuck against a vengeful French side last weekend.

They’re now left with two matches to play – Ireland and England. They need at least one win to come away from their end of year tour with some respectability. Two would set them up nicely heading into the Rugby World Cup next year.

Some Roar fans have opined that beating the English is more important but Michael Cheika may disagree, particularly since he’s landed back in the city where he first made his coaching name, with Leinster winning the Heineken Cup in 2009. He knows a good few of the Irish lads, and how they tick. He’ll relish the battle with Joe Schmidt for the upper hand.

Cheika in 2009 and now Cheika in 2014. There’s a few parallels to be drawn between those two years.

2009 was also the year that Ireland won a Grand Slam for the first time in over 65 years. The Irish team went on to play the November internationals with a 100 per cent win record behind them. The Springboks were in their pomp that year having won the Tri-Nations, and the Lions series. They arrived in Dublin expecting to carry on their winning streak in a Northern Hemisphere vs Southern Hemisphere champs match. Ireland forgot the script and won 15-10.

Unfortunately, they didn’t get to keep their 100 per cent winning record as they’d already lost it, two weeks previously in their game against Australia.

When the two teams ran out for the match in Croke Park, Australia in line with tradition ran out first. Normally, there is a bout of reserved applause for the visiting team but this time the stadium erupted as the Wallaby captain ran onto the pitch, as shouts of “Rocky, Rocky” rang out. Rocky Elsom must have been the most popular opposing captain to ever hit the Irish turf, since he had won the European Cup five months earlier with Leinster.

Ireland followed and the stadium erupted once more as they were led out by Brian O’Driscoll winning his 100th cap. The two leaders knew and respected each other well – O’Driscoll, after the European final, described Elsom as one of the best players he had ever played with.

That didn’t stop the two captains going at it hammer and tongs for the next 80 minutes. Elsom took his team into a 13-6 lead, Tommy Bowe then squeezed over the line to draw the match level. Elsom, leading by example, got over the line with a powerful, barnstorming try in the third quarter to give Australia the lead 20-13.

In the 77th minute, Bowe went over and the stadium lit up, but the TMO eventually said no. The clock ticked down and Ireland kept pressing, camped on the Wallaby line, and won a scrum as the 80th minute approached.

The ball came back and Tomas O’Leary fired it to his captain. O’Driscoll took the ball at speed, sidestepped flailing Wallaby hands, and touched down under the posts. Ronan O’Gara duly converted and the game ended 20-20.

Afterwards, Elsom and O’Driscoll warmly embraced. A good game.

Both of those players are now gone, and a new line-up faces each other on Saturday at Lansdowne Road. There’ll be some familiar faces from both sides since that match five years ago – Adam Ashley-Cooper, Quade Cooper, Ben Alexander, Will Genia possibly for the Wallabies, and Rob Kearney, Tommy Bowe, Paul O’Connell, Sean Cronin and Jamie Heaslip for Ireland.

Warming the bench that day for the Irish was a relatively unknown out-half, Jonathan Sexton. O’Gara is now his kicking coach at Racing Metro, where Sexton plays his rugby in the Top 14. Sexton’s also been nominated for IRB Player of the Year and was man of the match in the win against South Africa two weeks ago. There’ll be a large target on his back come Saturday.

Joe Schmidt went looking for suitable first-team members in last week’s match against Georgia. Despite running out comfortable 49-7 winners, there were very few new hands being put up for selection – perhaps Munster lock Dave Foley, who relished his first cap with a man of the match performance. But the likelihood is that Schmidt will stick with his winning formula from the Boks match, except for possibly two positions.

Cian Healy and Sean O’Brien, two thorns in Australia’s side from previous matches, are on the long-term injury list. Healy’s replacement at club and country levels, Jack McGrath, is coming up on his shoulder very fast. Rory Best, the Ulster captain and hooker, is also out with injury – Sean Cronin and Richardt Strauss are highly able replacements. Mike Ross remains the top player locking down the scrum at tighthead, however if he has to go off Ireland could be in trouble.

Behind them are likely to be the Irish captain, Paul O’Connell, playing in his 95th match for his country, and Devin ‘Lighthouse’ Toner, the 6 foot 10 lineout winner. The gnarly, fiercely competitive Munster flanker and captain Peter O’Mahony will play blindside, but is more in the French and South African mould with the amount of ball he burrows and steals.

With first choice opensider Sean O’Brien and second-choice Chris Henry out of the picture, it was left to relative newbie Rhys Ruddock to take up the reins in the Boks match. He settled in nicely, scoring Ireland’s critical try at the start of the second half. Son of former Welsh coach Mike Ruddock, the Dublin-born flanker is coming into his own, bringing plenty of heft to the scrum and getting about the field rapidly despite his bulk (17.5 stone) and height 6’3”. The never-injured Heaslip will lock down the pack at the back.

There aren’t too many solid and consistent half pairings in world rugby at the moment, but Ireland are lucky to have one of them in Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton. Murray, playing at 9 for Munster, came into his own last year during the Lions tour of Australia, and although down the pecking order behind Mike Phillips and Ben Youngs for much of the tour, by the time it was over he had established himself. He’s now one of the top 9s in the game.

Alongside him, Sexton has improved as the year has gone on, and gave one of his best performances in the South African match, kicking 100 per cent from the tee. He’s no slouch on tackling and leads his line – a fierce competitor and guides the team well.

Outside of him is where Australia will have a few question marks, searching for weaknesses that the likes of Matt Toomua, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau, Henry Speight, Beranrd Foley and Genia will look to exploit.

Against the Boks, Schmidt took a gamble by putting Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne into the 12 and 13 shirts. With O’Driscoll retired and Gordon D’Arcy recovering from injury, Schmidt decided he had to blood some new names for the Rugby World Cup. The gamble paid off, with the the pair going well against the Boks, holding their own in midfield defence and Henshaw making a lovely cross-field kick and chase that set up Ireland for their first try.

Henshaw and Payne are former fullbacks and both are seen as candidates for the 13 shirt, according to Schmidt. Payne got the first nibble, but he was injured in the South Africa match and is only a possibility. D’Arcy recovered and played his part in Ireland’s win against Georgia, although he didn’t set the house on fire and left early, possibly carrying a knock. Nonetheless, Schmidt may opt for his experience if he’s available.

If Darcy and Payne are out, Schmidt could decide to roll the dice again and put in Ireland’s other errant playmaker at 12, Ian Madigan. Madigan has been living in the shadow of Sexton for the 10 spot, and got his chance to shine against Georgia, missing just one of his ten kicks. He’s also a player who likes to take chances – he could keep the Australian backline guessing.

The back three will have the ever-reliable Rob Kearney at 15, the coming-back-to-best-form Tommy Bowe on one wing, and possibly Simon Zebo on the other. This is the other position where Schmidt may decide to make a change. The Cork-born Munster winger can be electric, but also tends to run sideways instead of making headway up the pitch. He’s also received a lot of feedback on his defensive qualities. Ireland’s player of last season, Andrew Trimble, is injured, as is Luke Fitzgerald, so Schmidt may have no choice.

As well as Rob Kearney, Bowe, Zebo, Henshaw, Payne and Madigan have all played fullback and are excellent kickers and fielders. It’ll be interesting to see if they want to test the Wallaby backline with some strong kick-and-chase plays.

The bench will be light on the propping front with five first-choice players out injured, particularly at tighthead. There’s sufficient supplies in the locks and back row department. Back-up 9 might see the ageing Eoin Reddan take the spot, but it would be interesting to see young Kieran Marmion of Connacht get a shot. D’Arcy or Madigan along with fullback Felix Jones will fill out the rest of the bench.

Ireland just don’t have the skills to play a high-tempo, off-loading game, particularly against Australia. Instead, Schmidt favours the power play, with three phases of chess-like planned moves and take-ups, clear-out hits, and fierce rucking generating clean and quick ball and getting the opposition defensive line out of kilter, before unleashing a try-scoring opportunity orchestrated by the halves.

The central ball carrier is the ’60 per cent man’ in Schmidt’s words – he has 60 per cent control over what is going to happen. The second try against South Africa was a perfect example of how he wants his team to play, with every player clear on what their role is, and what needs to happen when. The breakdown is going to be a critical area for Ireland to dominate in order to win the game.

No doubt Cheika will have been paying attention, and plotting his own strategies to defeat this.

Hopefully, it’s not pouring down and we get a good game. Ireland will obviously be facing one of the Southern Hemisphere’s superpowers, and have to face the likes of…

Actually, scratch that.

Ireland to win by 8.