Australia copped a hiding in the two Tests against Pakistan in the UAE, but there is no chance they will suffer the same fate at home against India.
The venue has often determined the outcome of Australia-India series as much as the playing personnel, with the home side in the last two series claiming the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 4-nil.
In recent times, Indian teams that included the likes of Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, VVS Laxman, Virender Sehwag, Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh failed to win a series in this country – and those players are all long gone.
Australia’s pace barrage – and at present the arsenal is well stocked – will once again expose India’s frailties on the pace and bounce of Australian pitches.
While the result of the series appears a fait accompli, the make-up of the Australian team is not quite as clear.
So who is likely to appear at the Gabba for the opening Test on 4 December?
David Warner and Chris Rogers are certain to open.
Warner has had a golden 12 months with his past 10 Tests – against England, South Africa and Pakistan – producing 1305 runs, six centuries and an average of 68.7.
His new found maturity – both on and off the field – has seen him become arguably the side’s most important batsman.
His partner at the top of the order has been less impressive. Rogers, at 37, is under seemingly daily scrutiny to retain his place.
The productivity in his last three Test series has been on the decline, with an average of 46.3 last summer against England followed by 30.2 versus the Proteas and just 22.0 against Pakistan.
A century for Victoria against South Australia in his first Shield match after returning from the UAE, and the fact that presently no other opener is beating the door down, will see him retain his place.
The two Tests against Pakistan featured two different players at first drop, as Alex Doolan gave way to Glenn Maxwell for the second Test.
Neither will be at Brisbane.
It is hard to see anyone other than Shane Watson slotting in at three, although he will need to score heavily to hold his place for next year’s Ashes tour.
Having missed the UAE tour due to yet another injury, Watson has again stated in recent days that he wants to continue bowling at Test level. The number of overs he sends down may well be lessened anyway by the retention of all-rounder Mitch Marsh, who while not setting the world on fire with the ball against Pakistan was tidy enough and is far more suited to life back on Australian pitches.
His batting showed maturity against Pakistan and he should certainly hold down the number six spot for just his third Test.
In the absence of Michael Clarke, his long-term heir apparent as skipper, Steve Smith, will likely move up to number four.
Like Warner, Smith has made big strides over the past year, with a 10-Test haul of 770 runs at 48.1. Several times he saved Australia’s bacon during last summer’s Ashes series with some heady and calculated innings.
The number five spot is open to conjecture. With Brad Haddin declared a near certainty, and with that the man anointed to lead the team in Clarke’s absence, it rules out the possibility of a return by George Bailey.
If Cameron White cannot force his way into the ODI team he is no chance to make it back to Test level.
The form middle order batsmen in the early part of the Shield season have been Victoria’s Peter Handscomb (348 runs at 116.0), the Bulls’ Joe Burns (324 at 54.0), South Australia’s Callum Ferguson (324 at 81.0), and Warriors skipper Adam Voges (261 at 87.0).
Handscomb has played 28 first-class matches but prior to this season his pickings have been slim, hence a career average of just 35.7.
Burns continues to produce solid numbers – now boasting an average of 42.1 – and must be in strong contention.
Both Voges and Ferguson have tasted the international arena in the limited-overs form.
Voges did so very effectively with his 31 ODIs producing an average of 45.8, while Ferguson was also impressive with a 30-match average of 41.4.
At 29, Ferguson is perhaps ripe for a Test debut and given his past international experience, for mine, he will just edge out Burns, who at 25 is sure to get the chance if his form holds over the next few years.
Mitchell Johnson, the newly anointed ICC and Test Player of the Year, is a no-brainer and we can expect him to feast well on India’s batsmen.
With a seven-wicket haul for Queensland against New South Wales in his comeback match from injury, Ryan Harris seems destined to return to the fold. With 103 Test wickets at a miserly 22.6, he is world-class when fully fit.
The last spot in the pace battery is between Peter Siddle and Mitchell Starc.
Siddle has been a workhorse through his 55 Tests which have netted 190 wickets at 30.2, but he laboured in the UAE, where he captured just two wickets at 108.5. That followed a lean time in South Africa where he was dropped after the opening two matches on the back of just five wickets at 54.6.
His pace was well down, something that troubled coach Darren Lehmann, who stated openly that he wants to try and dominate opposing batting line-ups with speed.
His lacklustre showing in the past two series has him under pressure to hold his spot.
He may edge out Starc – who played the last Test in Abu Dhabi – as a result of his second innings 5-31 yesterday for Victoria against South Australia.
If that is the case it would be cruel blow for Starc, who is currently in the one-day team against the Proteas where he bowled well yesterday with a match-winning haul of 4-32.
I would retain Starc for the series opener at Brisbane. He has played 13 Tests to date and been dropped seven times, and as such deserves another opportunity.
His pace is ahead of Siddle at present and he is ideally suited to the Gabba pitch.
That just leaves the spinner, and I am sure there will be one simply for team balance.
Given that Steve O’Keefe was jettisoned after just one Test, with Nathan Lyon once again given the bulk of the slow bowling responsibility in Abu Dhabi, Lyon will get another chance but he needs to start claiming wickets or may well be out the door.
So, there you have it, my XI for the first Test, should fitness not be an issue, is: Warner, Rogers, Watson, Smith, Ferguson, M Marsh, Haddin, Johnson, Starc, Harris and Lyon with Siddle 12th man.
If Haddin is not fit to take his place I would have Chris Hartley making his debut, with Smith as skipper.
Now, over to you Roarers.
Don Freo
Guest
One innings in a season? Terry Alderman did that.
Armchair Expert
Guest
You obviously missed last season's shield final Don.
Tom from Perth
Roar Rookie
Glad you agree Don. You'll be happy to know that I paid closer attention to Dawson towards the end of last season, and I started to rank him a bit more highly.
Don Freo
Guest
Oh no, he is not overlooked. He has not batted well for 5 seasons. He would bat 11 in yesterday's line up. Can't...or won't play a shot
Bearfax
Guest
Actually DC, I figured there was some tongue in cheek process happening in your comment. As it is, this and some other forums are for me an opportunity to vent my spleen as they say. I know in many ways its a useless exercise because there is no way the selectors are going to take the slightest notice of what we say (mind you, think sometimes they need to to widen their perspectives. Being a selector doesnt make them infallible...far from it). But the forum helps me to refine my thoughts about issues I guess and when someone like Don Freo comes along and challenges those ideas, it assist not only in seeing the other viewpoint, but in refining my thoughts and arguments further so I can further inform him how wrong he is and how right I am (snicker snicker....are you e-listening Don). By the way Don, you forgot in your list of bowlers who can bat, surely the champion bowler who can bat, of them all....SOK. Careless of you that.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Actually Bearfax not particularly hot under the collar, I do realise the triviality of this exercise as entertainment and my post didn't really convey the fairly dry tone I was thinking it in. But you got to admit there is a whole huge parlour full of cricket supporters/commentators with more than just a touch of maiden-great-aunt in them, all safe in their spinsterhood, just waiting for the critical moment to march down that garden path and pay us a visit with a righteous calling.
Don Freo
Guest
One of the arguments against that, Rellum is that in past eras, the tail was made up of bowlers who couldn't bat...Alan Hurst, Jim Higgs, Mike Whitney, Bruce Reid,... Those who were ok every now and then like Geoff Lawson, Merv Hughes, Craig McDermott...only did so occasionally. Today, Johnson, Siddle, Starc, Faulkner, NCN, Cummins...even Lyon and Harris know how to wield a bat. Effectively, we have what would amount to two extra batsmen in the quality of tailend batting...the "old-Fashioned" team could never do that...that's why they needed a real #6. Even their keepers were only moderate. Of Healy, Zoehrer, Dyer, Marsh, Jarman, Grout, only Marsh and Zoehrer were genuine batsmen and, apart from Zoehrer, all would bat at number 8 or lower in today's team. Marshy was better but just went the slog...or stodged too long. Didn't read a game like today's tail does.
Don Freo
Guest
I don't do snide, Bear...Just deep, incisive stuff. Deep incisive stuff is our future, Bear...surgery.
Don Freo
Guest
You've got 3 who agree, Chris. Quality like SFL!!!
Bearfax
Guest
Tut tut there DC. Getting a little hot under the collar arent we. Its only a game and this ...what we're doing here...is also just a game.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
No it's stupid. If you're in the Test team and scoring runs, then that's all that matters. Worry about if they stop scoring runs when it happens. Trying to predict future results on FC averages is facile and typical of a certain type of cricket supporters judgemental great-maiden-aunt routine, sitting off on the sidelines, so smug and so willing to tut tut and leap in with an "I told you so" at just that moment (primarily because you've not ventured anything aunty).
Bearfax
Guest
Absolutely Disco. Having the name MARSH means you can do no wrong. Performance, averages, results mean nothing. I'm actually surprised Geoff Marsh hasnt been recalled. And then there's Graham Marsh....oh yeh he was a golfer wasnt he...but who cares..he has the Marsh pedigree. Rothchild, Windsor, Kennedy, Marsh....royalty all.it seems
Disco
Guest
I agree. However, Faulkner is a far better and more consistent batsman than Johnson.
Disco
Guest
Definitely.
Disco
Guest
Well said, Chris.
Disco
Guest
I agree. S Marsh is THE chosen one.
Rob
Guest
Warner Watson Hughes Clark / Smith if Clarke is out Smith / Hussey if Clark is out Marsh Haddin Johnston Harris / Starcif Harris not ready Hazelwood Lyon
Bearfax
Guest
Hey poormans. Careful with the 'old man' reference to Rogers. I'm just about to turn 64. What does that make me?...no snide comments from Don Freo please
poormans
Guest
I don't think the Rodgers Shield ton is enough to secure his place in the team, he is an old man and while it might not be an issue currently it will be very soon. I think the selectors should have seen enough from him to know he can come back in and do a job if required but it is time that Hughes got an entire Test series in his preferred opening position and he can be reaccessed during the Ashes if things aren't going well. With Clarke out and Watson most likely to come back in, I think Watson should be the captain even if Haddin is in the team. I don't think Steve Smith is the next captain of the Australian team and I am not sure the selectors think so either. Haddin isn't a long or short term option - his test career should already be over, he was poor behind the stumps even before his injury in the UAE he hasn't scored a run recently. Hartley should replace him no matter what. Of the contenders I expect to see both Marsh and Ferguson named in the squad and Ferguson will most likely debut because of the limitations Marsh's healing arm brings in the field. Siddle's test career was over three years ago I am not sure how he continues to be selected. With Johnson now the mainstay in the bowling line-up Siddle should have been shuffled back to state cricket and then back to club cricket by now. XI for the 1`st Test - Hughes, Warner, Watson (c), Smith, Ferguson, M, Marsh, Hartley (wk), Johnson, Harris, Lyon, Hazlewood Lyon has to remain in the Test team it is just idiotic that he continues to be dropped and then the next game they realise he is still the best spinner in the country. We don't need to take into the first test - 4 seam bowlers and 2 seaming all rounders. Lyon enjoys bowling at the Gabba in Tests and the extra bounce really helps him.
Bearfax
Guest
I can understand your interest in Voges 13th Man. A reliable and competent batsman with a good average. Not sure I would sacrifice a spin bolwer for him though. In this instance it is where stats need to be looked at closer. He's a part time spin bowler with a good average but has only taken 43 wickets in probably close to 10-15 years of first class cricket. Effectively he's played 252 innings for those 43 scalps suggesting he is very much a part time bowler, brought in a bit like Border and Clarke were brought in. Compare the fact that Maxwell has taken almost the same number of wickets for a little more but in only 50 odd innings, and you wouldnt use Maxwell as your mainstream spin bowler. A good spin bowler is a front liner. They may go for a lot at times but they are there also to break the pattern for the fast bowlers. Not sure Voges could do that. The other question is do you leave out a young up and comer for someone who is nearing the end of his career. Rogers is different because, other than Hughes we have no serious aspirants for that position yet, and Rogers has a 50 average with a strong reputation in England. Voges would be there part time only. If Burns is 3, and I think that's a pretty good selection, I would go for Maxwell or even Khawaja at 5. And if you are not including Watson, I can understand your selection of M. Marsh ( I think Henriques or Faulkner would be better though). I would have O'Keefe or Lyon in for Faulkner (move him to 6 for Marsh as an option)...too many all rounders...we need specialists. But I like your imagination 13th. Some worthy ideas there in my opinion.