300 sleeps to the Rugby World Cup (Part 1)

With 300 sleeps until the tournament’s kick-off, what’s the pecking order for the 2015 Rugby World Cup?

The pools
Group A: England, Fiji, Wales, Uruguay, Australia
Group B: Scotland, Japan, South Africa, Samoa, USA
Group C: NZ, Tonga, Georgia, Argentina, Namibia
Group D: France, Italy, Ireland, Canada, Romania

So who are the likely winners?

New Zealand
NZ stand imperious above all other rugby nations. They have barely been defeated since their last World Cup win in 2011. They have the core of experienced players who have won a World Cup before, know each others’ games very well, and play the game for the team not for themselves.

They look invincible.

However, things can go wrong. The principle threat to New Zealand is ‘The Virus’. This pops up at times when the All Blacks lose or look like they might lose.

The second biggest threat is the refereeing, which can surprise the All Blacks by not giving them all the decisions they want. That said, these threats are minimal.

England
When they beat New Zealand in 2012, things looked on the up for England. Coach Stuart Lancaster had a plan and it seemed to be working.

Since then, poor performances in the big games let them down – Wales in 2013 and Ireland in 2014 outplayed England in the Six Nations, and the Southern Hemisphere ritually humble England at Twickenham to put paid to Lancaster’s myth that Fortress Twickers is the new Camelot.

The All Blacks beat them 3-0 in New Zealand recently in a tour which was designed to show England they could beat anyone.

England look good up front but, hampered by injury and ‘too much choice’, are struggling to pick a stable, cohesive, fearsome backline. With Manu Tuilagi, they fear no one, but its very unlikely they’ll get seven injury-free games in a row from the big centre.

However, do not underestimate the power of home advantage. England have good kickoff times, home field and local knowledge. Should England get going they’ll have an incredibly huge partisan support, a jingoistic press, and a nationalistic pride surging behind them, making them a juggernaut.

South Africa
The Boks are playing hot and cold at the moment. Sometimes their vast experience is brought to bear, applying a steady hand to the tiller for their youthful energy and exuberance to thrive resulting in astonishingly controlled successful performances. Sometimes the older guys in the team look clapped-out and the youngsters clueless.

They beat New Zealand in a thriller but looked utterly bamboozled against Ireland.

If they get the right blend to derive a high-standard consistency, then they’ll be in the mix for a medal. If it fails to gel, then they could be in for more trouble than they reckoned with in their group. Scotland are on the up and bring a massive support, Japan are nobody’s mugs these days, although still a cycle away from being serious.

Australia
To say Australia is in flux would be a massive understatement. The Aussies jettisoned Robbie Deans as coach in 2012 under crowd and press lobbying, and Ewen McKenzie in 2014 for player pressure. There’s no money in the biscuit tin and there’s no apparent prospect of any arriving soon – any new ideas can’t seem to catch the public attention and competition for recreational money is intense.

Still, Michael Cheika is a charismatic and successful chap who can get the Wallabies believing in their undoubted back-line talent and rolling in the right direction.

But it’s all a little late. For a British October World Cup, all their pack need to beef up 10 kilograms or so, drill their set-piece technique and work on their mental prep to cope with potential defence-favouring breakdown refereeing.

Ireland
These lads are doing quite nicely. A close one against New Zealand, a Six Nations win with a tough finale in Paris, and big win over the Boks all point to the Irish coming up on the rails nicely.

The retirement of Brian O’Driscoll has not held them back and many of their other players look like they’ve stepped up from the shadow into the limelight. Jonathan Sexton, in particular, looks head and shoulders above any other stand-off half in world rugby on his day.

Can they keep the momentum going? There’s the challenge. Against New Zealand in 2013 they had the game won and frittered it away. If they’ve learnt from that, as a unit, then they’ll be there or thereabouts. If not, then they’ll spark-up and fade away like a match.

Squad depth might be an issue, especially in the forwards. Keeping their talismanic pack leaders fit and energetic looks the biggest challenge.

France
In 2007 they lost to Tonga and self-destructed. But in 2011, they bonded like no other team and came within a whisker of winning the Cup.

This is the French – form means nothing, style means everything.

They look to have settled on a #10 now in Camille Lopez, which has got to help. They have the same big brutality in the pack as ever, they can play in mud or on the top of the ground. They can run and they can shove. They can be fluent and they can control the game.

But some days they can’t.

The French see the Irish as mercurial. But to everyone else, the French suit that adjective perfectly.

Capable of turning up in September after 10 consecutive losses and winning the thing, who knows how the French will perform. A good Six Nations and they’ll be rampant to start with.

Wales
Wales have all the notes, but not necessarily in the right order.

A barnstorming 2013 Six Nations and many successful Lions looked like leading Wales into the promised land of contenders.

But continual losses to the big boys is sapping energy and morale, despite what their management are saying.

One of the usual excuses – disharmony between nation and region – has been removed to be replaced with a new one – crowd on our backs. The usual nonsense excuses appearing after embarrassing losses. They have been on the brink of self-destruction before; sometimes they tumble in and sometimes they pull back and thrive.

Wales must move onwards from their usual parochial target of Six Nations champs and look to different desires of World Cup. Their plan of team outing worked last time and I expect them to come back fit and bonded from the cryogenic chambers of Poland prior to the big event.

This will help. But it might not help enough.

Other Tier 1 nations
Scotland are on the up, scoring tries for fun. Italy are on the way down and are close to despair. Argentina are faltering and seek a new identity, having grown out of their massive-pack phase.

These nations might do well in the competition, success for them though will likely be measured in terms of getting out of the group or reach the semis. They’re unlikely to have the depth of squad to win it and would need all their first 23 fit throughout to stand a chance.

On today’s attritional rugby field, this is an outside bet.

Despite stated ambitions, I suspect satisfaction for these teams will be measured in terms of coming second in their groups. Or not, as the case may be.

Tune in tomorrow for the Tier 2 nations, as well as a best guess at which nation will be crowned World Champions.