My pack of teams to just miss the finals is quickly filling up, with the first four previews having teams drifting into the 8th to 13th range. Onto Essendon now who come into the season with the ASADA controversy still lingering.
Last season
Still under immense media scrutiny and with coach James Hird in Europe leaving his wife to handle the PR, Essendon were expected to stumble again due to outside pressures.
The season looked to be cooked as Jobe Watson went down injured but the Bombers once again played exciting football to seal a finals spot.
They held the lead most of the way through their elimination final before the Kangaroos overran them to end the Bombers season. Dyson Heppell was a standout all season marking himself as a future leader and a genuine superstar of the AFL.
The development of Mark Baguley, Pat Ambrose, and Zach Merrett has given Essendon options and the odd headache at selection time.
Next season
James Hird is back at the helm without Bomber Thompson by his side increasing the media circus around the club. The off-season saw the departure of Paddy Ryder but the incoming of Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney, ruckman Jonathon Giles, and veteran defender James Gwilt.
Expect Heppell to receive increased opposition attention this season freeing up Watson, Goddard, and Brent Stanton with the arrival of Adam Cooney meaning we may see Watson resting up forward more often. A lot will ride on the development of Daniher and the form of Carlisle to ensure enough goals are kicked. Write them off at your peril, the Bombers continue to be one of the more exciting teams to watch so I’m slotting them into the finals.
Who to look out for
Nick Kommer returns from injury this season and was a revelation with his forward pressure and excitement. I expect him to start in the VFL but be putting pressure on Paul Chapman and Jason Winderlich mid-way through the season.
On paper the Bombers appear to be lacking genuine pace so Nick Kommer could be the injection (pardon the pun) they need to boost their season. Joe Daniher is one of the most highly rated big-men for years. He had an outstanding final last year and will more than likely be relieved of ruck duties provided Giles and Bellchambers stay injury free.
This could be a 50-goal year for him as he provides a headache for opposition defenders.
Needs a big year
Jake Carlisle was once showing the form line of an All-Australian defender before Essendon realised he could kick a goal and Michael Hurley was a genuine full back.
Settling up forward Carlisle struggled last season placing the raw Daniher as the focal point.
He will slot into the forward line in round 1 but failure to perform will see Ambrose or the resting ruckman place pressure on him. He may not even have the option of reverting to his defensive post with Hurley, Cale Hooker, and Fletcher all settled and Tayte Pears and James Gwilt waiting in the wings.
BEST 22
FB: Fletcher, Hurley, Baguely
HB: Dempsey, Hooker, Hibberd
C: Stanton, Goddard, Heppell
HF: Cooney, Carlisle, Zaharakis
FF: Ambrose, Daniher, Chapman
R: Bellchambers, Watson, Hocking
I: Howlett, Giles, Myers, Z. Merrett
Aransan
Guest
Exactly.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Oh I agree, he'll probably play 405-408 games all up, but I can't see him continuing on into 2016.
Aransan
Guest
Managed carefully Fletcher still has much to offer after he reaches 400 games and Essendon wouldn't have wanted to keep a space on their list for him unless he was going to be available for the whole season. Fletcher was sorely missed late this year due to a finger injury. Even if he is not selected he would be valuable insurance towards the end of the season, but there will be opportunities for a player such as Pears.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Agreed - surely once he makes 400 that will be it and he retires at the end of this season.
Aransan
Guest
Dan, teams have a dozen midfielders these days -- 3 on the back line, 3 across the centre, 3 on the forward line, another 2 in the midfield and of course Ryder was also partly a midfielder this year. Then you have another couple on the bench. Hibberd was used to some extent in the midfield this year, the rebounding could be done by Gwilt or Pears if he can regain his old form. Even Carlisle can be used to a limited extent as a midfielder with his endurance and this can make him a hard match up on the forward line. I see Hibberd as a back/midfielder -- one of the 3.
Dan
Guest
How could I forget Ambrose? I'm not sure about Hibberd in the midfield, if someone else can play his rebounding role to good effect then I am all for it, but he is a vital cog in their side and excels where he currently is. Winderlich did well off half back at times but I feel he is best used in the forward half, kicking goals and creating scoring opportunities.
Avatar
Roar Guru
My gut feeling is that 2015 will be Dustin Fletcher's final season. He's played on with the target of getting to 400 games, which I can see him doing within the first ten rounds of the season. Assuming he plays every game up to and including Round 6, he'll be 40 by the time he and the Bombers tackle Fremantle (in Perth for the fifth year running), then what a perfect stage he'll play on for his 400th against North Melbourne in Round 7. The first two rounds will be testing for the Dons, taking on last year's Grand Finalists back-to-back. Buddy first up won't be ideal, his domination of the Dons is well-documented.
Aransan
Guest
Dan, I am expecting Paddy Ambrose to step up on the forward line this year. Zac Merrett will develop into a star and I see Hibberd contributing more to the midfield. Daniher will develop further on his way to becoming an elite player, he did very well this year for a second year tall forward. I am also expecting more from Gleeson and Ashby. We need to develop a third ruckman through the rookie list.
Aransan
Guest
Swampy, I hope Essendon give up on the idea of playing Hurley mainly at CHF as he missed quite a number of games playing there as well as losing form after coming back from injury. Carlisle deserves more chances on the forward line but I do see Carlisle and Hurley as swingmen who can be swapped for a quarter to a quarter and a half in a game. Hurley showed great promise on the back line as the season progressed and I expect him to lead the back line which is really saying something given the quality of Hooker.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Best 22 facing probable ASADA suspensions, due to being on the 2012 list and not refusing to be part of the doping proghram, are marked with a * BEST 22 FB: Fletcher*, Hurley*, Baguely HB: Dempsey, Hooker, Hibberd* C: Stanton, Goddard, Heppell* HF: Cooney, Carlisle, Zaharakis FF: Ambrose, Daniher, Chapman R: Bellchambers*, Watson*, Hocking I: Howlett*, Giles, Myers, Z. Merrett
Swampy
Guest
On paper that 22 looks pretty strong for a team to miss the finals. Guess it boils down to the AFL/ASADA penalties. Don't be surprised if Carlisle is returned to CHB and Hurley to CHF as Hird preferred the season before last. The Bombers are a complete wildcard team for me - they could knock on top four or go dead last. Always a chance to lose to the wooden spooners and then beat the ladder leaders two weeks later. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Dan
Guest
Carlisle will be interesting, averaged 0.5 goals in his first 12 games, and then averaged 3 in his last 7, so has the potential to continue on that good form. Daniher has struggled with accuracy at times, but with Lloyd coming in as a specialist kicking coach that should improve. Their backline is top notch, Hooker is elite, Hurley got better and better as the year went on, Baguley has matured into one of the better small/mid sized defenders, Hibberd is an elite ball user off the half back line, and Dempsey is a dynamic play maker. Fletcher is ageing but should be serviceable as he cracks 400 games, and perhaps Pears can regain the form he showed in his early years and secure a best 22 spot again, and then Steinberg who finally made an AFL debut late in the season after several years of VFL level football, he was not great in the Elim final but the coaches believe he has potential. They have a strong midfield core, Watson, Goddard, Heppell, Stanton, Zaharakis, Myers, Hocking, Howlett, Colyer and a few others have shown themselves to be a strong unit, but one area the Bombers may struggle is outside run/leg speed, with a few exceptions(Colyer for one) they are not a particularly fast group, even their running players like Zaharakis and Dempsey aren't overly quick, the addition of Cooney should help, and younger guys like the Merretts and Gleeson could step up and give them that outside run, and the rise of speedster Travis Colyer looks set to continue. Their forward line has been a weakness for some time, but if Daniher/Carlisle go well they are sorted for talls, another issue is the small forwards, Winderlich was set to retire until being talked out of it, and Chapman can't really be described as a small forward, in 2013 Kommer was excellent defensively but didn't kick a lot of goals. Howlett has the potential to be a good defensively minded small forward, and he has shown the ability to kick multiple goals, I believe it would be a good move for him as he would be a fair way down the midfield pecking order. Can Melksham finally come on? Despite a serviceable second half to 2013, he has otherwise been fairly mediocre for the past 3 years. Then there are the other recent draftees, Kavanagh was a high pick but has been unable to secure a spot, O'Brien played fleetingly in late 2012 and has barely been sighted since, Alex Browne looked very promising but a knee injury has left him on the sidelines for quite some time, he is one who could surprise next season. Ryder is an enormous loss, his impact was often underrated, but his 2014 season was outstanding, the return of Bellchambers and the inclusion of Giles could make for a good ruck pairing, but the loss of Ryder seems likely to be a negative overall for the ruck division. The Bombers at their best have shown they are capable of defeating the majority of sides, but just short of ever consistently competing at a top 4 level, this year will probably be a similar result, although with the expected forward improvement I think they can go a little better, I'm tipping a 3rd-6th place ladder finish.
Aransan
Guest
Essendon can still get great value from Fletcher this year but he will need to be carefully managed. I see him playing about 10 games over the year making him the third member of the 400 club but he should be given a couple of breaks over the year especially around interstate games and byes. He does seem to carry chronic injuries and this is where careful management is required. He was missed late last year through injury and Essendon didn't really have anyone fit at the time to be able to replace him.