As of today there are fewer than 300 days until the Rugby World Cup 2015 kicks off.
Having yesterday looked at the chances of the tier 1 nations, let’s assess the chances of the rest of the pack, and see if we can pick the tournament winner.
The pools
Group A: England, Fiji, Wales, Uruguay, Australia
Group B: Scotland, Japan, South Africa, Samoa, USA
Group C: NZ, Tonga, Georgia, Argentina, Namibia
Group D: France, Italy, Ireland, Canada, Romania
Tier 2 Nations
Samoa, Tonga and Fiji all have their moments, but I suspect that any team worth its salt will outperform them so much at set-piece that they won’t threaten the Tier 1s too much. Success here will be getting out of the group.
Fiji are in the Group of Death with England, Australia and Wales, so their chances are slim.
Tonga recently beat Georgia, they outclass Namibia, and have the potential to beat a lacklustre Argentina, should Argentina fail to get themselves up for it. I can’t see them beating New Zealand, but good results elsewhere would be enough to get through.
Samoa aren’t intimidated by South Africa but it would be a shocker if the Boks let their guard down enough to lose. They’ll likely beat USA who still look green, and they’re perfectly capable of beating Japan. Scotland will be their rival to target.
Japan have been climbing the IRB Rankings in the last two years and now stand above Samoa. They’ll be setting exactly the same targets as Samoa – beat USA, edge out Scotland and Samoa, let South Africa roll them over. They have better discipline than Samoa but lack their flair and enterprise.
The USA will be following along the same lines in hope rather than expectation.
Late qualifiers Uruguay will be hoping to retain their dignity throughout rather than doing anything special. Namibia are similar.
Georgia are hard and have some good players but lack depth. However, beating Tonga and Argentina may not be beyond their ambitions.
Canada and Romania will be close (and play this weekend, as a barometer) and will serve as the game for minnows bragging rights in Group D
World Cup betting
These are the best prices on November 16, 2014.
New Zealand $1.6 – OK value
England $4 – Good value
South Africa $4.5 – Wait
Australia $9 – Don’t bet
Ireland $1 – Good value
France $20 – Good value
Wales $20 – Don’t bet
Argentina $80 – Don’t bet
Potential winners
It’s hard to see past New Zealand – if it was an award for consistency, then they’d be given the gold. But one loss is all it takes to knock you out in the finals, so it’s not a done deal.
The best the bookies will give you is around 8 to 5. They reckon that if you run the competition three times, then New Zealand would win it once, with an outside chance of twice. Probably a bargain at that, since their group holds very little threat to their results or health. It’s unlikely they’ll slump in form before the tournament’s start, so that price will only get worse.
England are second favourites and would be tighter than 4 to 1 but for the fact that they have to get through their group. With Wales and Australia on the wane, this is likely, but not easy. Both Wales and Australia take great delight in taking on the English, and England don’t look too clever either. But if they hit form, they’ll be the All Blacks’ closest challenger.
Good value, if you think they’ll get out of the group. Expect them to get better and that price to shorten, especially as patriotic locals will be putting a pound on them as the event gets closer.
South Africa are good – they beat New Zealand recently, so they must be – but they’re not consistently good. They’re almost certainly in the knock-out phase even before they turn up – expect the other four teams in their group to fancy their chances of that runners-up-in-the-group spot and to roll over for the Saffers in order to maximise their potential against the other teams.
South Africa have to strive to get over their usual failings – arrogance, under-estimation and discipline. They could go on to win this competition, I have no doubt, but I think 9 to 2 offers poor value. Their price will drift out from here as the Boks search for their best combo and I expect you’ll get better odds nearer to the kick-off.
Australia at 9 to 1 are reckoned to have half the chances England do of winning. Hmmmn, I think not, regardless of where the teams are now.
In the full glare of the world media staring at them, I don’t expect Australia to get out of their group. The next 10 months will see Australia’s form disintegrate further as all the recent churn takes effect. Rather than being in it to win it, Australia’s aim will be to start their youngsters off gaining experience for 2019.
If you fancy Australia to win, then I reckon you’ll be better hanging on for a better price nearer the start.
Ireland are on the march. At 12 to 1, the Six Nations champs look great value. They are cohesive, inventive and intelligent. They back that with physicality in the forwards and flair out the line. With a declining Italy in the Group, Ireland should be a gimme to get into the KO-phase, even if France are primed. Should go well and come inwards in the market. A good bet at 12s.
Wales at 20 to 1 look about right. They could go well, but they could go badly. Even when they’re good, I can’t see them getting past three KO games in a row, though. Their power game is awesome on the day, but takes its toll on them. They lack the rapier-skill needed to get through big armour and their bludgeon isn’t enough to get past sly and skilful opponents. They are evolving from Warrenball, but a little too late, I feel.
France at 20 to 1, however, are worth a few bob of anyone’s money. They might turn up or they might not, but if they do, then 20 to 1 is a bargain indeed. They usually put in a good shift at the World Cup too, proving themselves to be a competition team, bonding as the weeks go on, becoming more cohesive as the games go by.
Each way pays one-third of the price for getting into the final. France have been in three finals but have usually run out of steam by then. And they’ll have support too, being pretty much every fan’s second-favourite side.
Argentina at 80s are a poor bet. They lack depth and are on the slide down the ranks. They have too far to go to stand a chance. As do anyone else in the comp.
Nobrain
Guest
Shhhh, let them talk.
Beancap
Guest
Every game the All Blacks play in, they are odds-on favourites, so they all know the score. Don't let Hansen's stupid-looking expression fool you. He knows what the danger is with the ABs and he's desperate to try to keep the pressure off the players. I think the "mind-games" are better than the matches most of the time in World Cups
s.t.rine
Guest
Too much hype about RWC Most years it's as boring as World Cup football - especially with inconsistent refereeing S T
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Hmmm that might be interesting. If Aussie can top their group, they will be a good bet I think as that half of the draw maybe a little easier. Whoever finishes 2nd in their group is likely to met the Springboks in the Quarters so more than likely that will be either England or Australia (which means Wales is likely to not make it out of the group stage.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
I know biltongbek , was at Millennium Stadium in 2007. Before the match we was drinking at the Angel Hotel, it was absolutely crowded with AB and French supporters. Watched the England v Aussie match on the screen as the Wallabies bowed out (12-6 I think by memory) ... we were not to know the same was going to happen to the AB's just a few hours later. We were staying at Swansea and the train back was like 'a wake'... everyone (at least the Kiwi supporters) was stunned. I have to say though that the Welshmen in the bars that we drowned our sorrows in were very sympathetic ... they love their rugby!
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Which means if NZ wins their group ... quarter final will be against France ... the AB's nemesis... *groan*
Squirrel
Guest
England seem a dumb team with no dumber player than Farrell . This may change , I'd have money on Aus and Boks .
The thing about World cup rugby is you only need to slip one game and you go home. 80 minutes can go pretty quickly when it goes wrong on the day
Ireland won't be in the SA and NZ half of the draw if they win their pool which looks more and more likely.
firstxv
Guest
I think the underdog thing is important. For me, I was hoping Halfpennys kick to put Wales ahead went over. Thats because a point down with 14 minutes to go is exactly where I would want the ABs in a tight match. The possibility of a loss should nothing happen from that point on is perfect ammunition for a side that bases their entire gameplan on making things happen. And so it did. Underdog means being on the back foot psychologically, means you need to come out fighting to survive. The ABs function best in those conditions these days.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Yeah I know ... its as though the 'underdog tag' makes a team grow a leg. We know it is on the basis that there is less pressure to win if the team are the underdogs but 'if the cap fits', it has to be worn. There is going to be a lot of speculation over the next 9 months before before team lists have to be submitted to the IRB with about a 6 -7 week break over the Christmas season. So not that much time for the selectors to 'get it right'. I guess the S15 season is going to have a great deal of influence either to uncover smokies or for players to cement their positions in the squad.
Daz
Guest
Oh you kiwis such short fuses and so precious about your place in the world and so serious and so lacking in the ability to laugh at yourselves it's no wonder you are next on Scott's list for deportation. In short no sense of humour.
Daz
Guest
Don't have any brothers but let me tell you it was even worse when my sisters tied me up and "beasted" me with sticks. Not so bad when they bested me. I could deal with that and God they could fight.
Daz
Guest
Mate I love the argy bargy of it all. I love how Hansen even now is seeking to paint the All Blacks as underdogs.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Daz, you are right mate, but having said that NZ has been generally favourites each time, deservedly or not. In 2007 though, I think it was slightly different. Ted had the NZRU CEO Steve Tew and 'his plan' endorsed. He had created depth, and introduced 'rotation' in order to keep the crew relatively fresh. He has whole nation convinced that the AB's would win the tournament in Paris with his strategy and obviously was so confident 12 months out, he was touting that he "should be judged on his results" in France. The rotation strategy was opposed by some who wanted to see the 'top side' in every match. We all know what happened in Cardiff when a possibly underdone AB's was shown the door by France. It may have cost Graham Henry his job but for the support of Steve Tew as many AB fans had taken him at his word and 'judged him on his results'. But he was was give a chance to 'atone' with Robbie Deans the only challenger for the hed coach job. Again history tells us what happened in 2008 and Henry on reappointment also acknowledged that rotation in the manner of how he introduced it was not the right strategy and he made some alignment for 2011. At this point the AB's are 'hot favourites' for the 2015 edition, they have depth, they have experience. Hansen has trailed his version of 'rotation' and many fans have again voiced their concerns over the wholesale changes as for example against Scotland. Knock out competitions though are not about who is the 'most consistent team over a period or in a series', it is the ability to absorb the pressure of knowing that a loss eliminates them. Novak Djokovic, Serena Williams,James Magnussen, Susie O'Neill (in her pet 200m butterfly) all No 1 in their chosen sports can be beaten in a Grand Slam, or Olympics, there are not second chances when it comes to elimination events ... Can the All Blacks do it in 2015 ... most die hard fans believe yes and while we now all speculate, obviously only time will tell.
expatmatt
Guest
yeah good luck with that. Anyone who has watched the AB's for any length of time can se that they present group are a solid as- in 2015 they have something to prove so I doubt there will be a slippery banana. If we do slip up the so long as we exit the tournament after the wooblies (and on present from that is almost as solid as a lloyds names guarantee) all will be as it is and well with the world. Must be tough having a little brother who beasts you -lmao
Daz
Guest
This straight from Hansen's mouth talking about winning back to back World Cups. Like it's some big challenge that will be a bridge too far for the number 1 team in the world: "And that's great because to win the World Cup you've got to be hungry, and maybe in the past we haven't been hungry enough." He was alluding to the shock World Cup quarter-final defeat by France seven years ago. "In 2007, we should have won it but we weren't the right dog because we didn't turn up with the right attitude. The reality is that we came expecting to win it." The darkness are more likely to lose when they are odds on favourites to win which gels with a few articles I have read in the kiwi press over the years analyzing why they haven't won more World Cups. They get on the big stage and it hits them just how small and irrelevant they are outside of one sport. It is their fatal flaw that exposes their little country, little brother mentality. So wind those odds in boys and let's all tell them what a shoe-in they are.
Daz
Guest
Ireland at $1 so does that make them favourites? Put a 0 behind it as I'm sure you meant to do and they look like reasonably good value at this stage. I always like a bit on France but you have to hypnotize them to believe they're playing at home and let's remember favourites only win about one third of the time.
niwdeyaj
Guest
I think Australia is excellent value at $9, certainly more value than England at $4... In fact, I'd have money on Wales at $20 ahead of England at $4... It all comes down to the draw... Runner up in Pool A will most likely find themselves in the knockout side of the draw that contains NZ, SA and Ireland... That's not an easy run to the final, even for NZ... Pool A winners will have a much easier run to the final and likely to be "fresher" for the most important game of the tournament...
Mick Gold Coast QLD
Roar Guru
There is a series of international test matches on now and another lot to enjoy mid year next year offering way more engrossing rugby than a quadrennial tournament. I'll simply enjoy that for the moment I think.