New Zealand is a complete team, with smart pace, power in almost every position, depth to die for and canny experience that nobody calls ‘old’.
They have composure when down late in a Test match, residual fitness, the ability to switch styles if needed and the situational awareness to overcome bad refereeing, yellow cards, breakdown chaos, scrum lotteries or inferior territory and possession.
But the All Blacks lose every now and then, and like with any rugby team it is because they are missing something that day.
In these occasions New Zealand cannot live without turnover ball. I think that is their necessary ingredient to win on a day when they are not firing on all cylinders.
The Springboks are less well-rounded, but are usually the favourites to win (and do win) most of the time, too. South Africa aren’t good when the ‘Boks don’t have an abrasive blindside flanker on the field with an actual open side deck-player. Also, South Africa cannot live without collisions that go the Springboks’ way.
We saw on this latest tour to Europe that trying to roll opposing packs with Oupa Mohoje at blindside flank just is not effective. Also, Marcell Coetzee gives all he has, and is an excellent blindside in his own right, but he still is no Francois Louw, who belongs in that small group of borderline insane loose forwards.
Like David Pocock, Richie McCaw, Heinrich Brussow, George Smith, Sam Cane and Sam Warburton, Louw can actually play the ball on the deck in a high percentage of breakdowns (and illegally in rucks) to slow the opposition down or pilfer or demand bodies to prevent the pilfer.
So, the Springboks cannot live without a true open side 80-minute pest playing alongside a 60-minute blindside battle-axe (Willem Alberts, Schalk Burger and Arno Botha), spelled by a 20-minute blindside berserker (Coetzee, Nizaam Carr, Siya Kolisi, Lappies Labuschagne or Juan Smith).
In addition, I believe South Africa cannot live with multiple kicking errors or errors of the boot at critical times. Missed penalty touch-finders, too many missed kicks at goal, poor box kicks, punts out on the full and badly executed chips and grubbers.
Can any team survive a bad kicking day? Yes, but not South Africa.
Australia cannot live without a serviceable scrum. The Wallabies are smart enough in the back line to not need a dominant scrum, but they can’t win if they are manhandled as at Twickenham this year or in Cape Town in 2013.
Also, Australia must have two playmakers, because that is how they play in the backs. And the Wallabies cannot live without a real breakdown menace. I’ve yet to be persuaded that Michael Hooper is that player, even though he is maybe the most compelling forward to watch, with his off-the-chart speed and conditioning.
Argentina cannot live without all their real professional players. And they cannot win when they play too open a game, because their forwards cannot get to the wide channels in time and they are turned over or sloppy ball results, leading to comical tries like Ruan Pienaar assisting Bryan Habana for a soccer try in Argentina.
England will not win the big games consistently without more skilled footballers at the back, and a real opensider in the front. Chris Robshaw can be a pest, and he is superbly conditioned, but like Hooper, he cannot really bother Louw or Pocock or McCaw for all 80 minutes. In the flyhalf and centre channels, England are even more predictable than South Africa.
Ireland cannot live outside Dublin. Maybe they can win in New Zealand against Australia. But for the most part, they are a home team. When they leave Dublin, they are shorter, slower and less clever.
Wales cannot live without superlative games by their best players. If Warburton, Leigh Halfpenny, Jamie Roberts or their big wingers let them down, they lose. Typically, their losses come when their top players are absent or quiet and the lesser lights have to make big decisions.
France cannot live without passion. French rugby is one of my favourite non-South African cultures, and it is typified (especially in the South) by a rugged desire for combat and scrums and taking chances.
The fans are incredibly knowledgeable and oddly fickle. When France shows up with a passive air, it’s over. When they pitch in, as at the World Cup in 2011 when I saw their pre-game drills for the England pool game, they’re tough to eliminate.
What do you think your teams cannot live without?
Disneychilly
Roar Rookie
Sounds to me like everyone's Achilles heel is their strength-meaning if it is nullified a lot of teams will be very vulnerable. France and SA are formidable in RWCs as they have strengths when the game is both open and tight. France just turn it on when they feel like it, so bugger any strategies for them-if they catch fire just try to live with them, tackle anything and ride it out. The SA thing is more a mental approach in terms of playing expansively but that approach isn't as effective in a tight knockout game. NZ possess an all court game so they can deal with most thrown at them, but their scrum is I feel their weakness. You could chuck in their defence at rolling mauls too as they have shipped a few yards and a try or two. As for their mentality though, well from 2011 on they have shown such strong examples of mental fortitude that any of the old barbs have been well and truly blunted. This is not what I'm alluding to though. I'm talking about their willingness to keep playing expansively in a tight one. RWC games lurch to a snail's pace from the QF on as the pressure ratchets up, and this can play into the hands of whoever is playing NZ. Because the tighter things are, the less expansive games are, less miles are run, taking NZ's fitness out of the equation. This means that the opposition are in better shape, more alert, and make better decisions under pressure which forces the NZ players to question their own decision making. Wales succeeded to a point in Cardiff-ridiculous time spent for stoppages and their cryo chambers helped them lead on 69 mins, but it all caught up with them in a devastating seven minutes. If NZ have the gumption and ability to keep their high octane wide game going for most of the match, the weapon that is their fitness will come to the fore. I'm not talking about being reckless, but maintaining accuracy with expansive quick phase play could be considered as playing the percentages as well. Aaron Smith is essential to this approach, and you could argue that Read, Retallick and Coles are too with their ball skills. Because the games will constrict even more as they near their end. The courage to run sides off their feet will be rewarded, and you'll see teams fade in the last 15, making bad decisions themselves (France must be commended here though because I've yet to see them run out of puff, only interest). Then a three on two in NZ's 22 from a turnover could mean running is the percentage option. The Hurricanes in the side are used to living off scraps and their accuracy is a huge weapon here. But as I've said the lack of courage to open her up could be NZ's biggest Achilles heel as it could take NZ's fitness ascendancy out of the game.
Boyler2
Roar Rookie
I have a feeling with the way tickets have been snapped up by Irish fans that the Millennium stadium game vs France is going to be like a home game for us, we have done well in that stadium also (grand slam etc) . I also feel that we will have a larger support in stadiums the further we get in the comp due. So in a nutshell disagree highly that Ireland cant win outside Dublin. We need to freeze Mike Ross and thaw him out for the RWC as comments below , if he's injured we are in trouble.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Hi Jemainok, I get your drift, and maybe you are right. If you are then I'd be disappointed in the AB's who should know better. It, afterall is how the competition is structured. Like the Grand Slams in Tennis, it is not always the best player who wins, As Hansen says, 'you don't have to be top dog to win, you have to be the right dog'. He specifically referred to 2007 when the AB's showed up "expecting to win" without earning the right. Once it get to the knock out stages, every match is like a final, win then move on to fight another day, lose then move out. Frankly, if the AB's cannot live with that then they do not deserve the highest honours of that tournament. The one thing that perplexes me is how the winners are known post competition for the next 4 years.. The winner of the RWC quite rightly should be known as "Rugby World Cup Holders", similar to the term "Olympic Champion", not "World Champions" .. full stop. For example, after England won the RWC in 2003, their record, quite frankly was very average, yet were still referred to as World Champions. To me it was almost devaluing the status pursued by many. NZ are the current "Rugby World Cup Holders" and they will go into next years tournament trying to defend that title, again as an Olympic Champion does. That's just my view though....
RobC
Roar Guru
:lol:
Harry Jones
Expert
J Pot is OK; and I respect his utter commitment. But I don't think that's a position we are starving at. Find us a playmaking 12!
Bakkies
Guest
Yes it worked with the Bulls and they hired an Aussie backs coach in Louden to help them use the ball out wide.
Bakkies
Guest
Depends on whether Matera, Fernandez Lobbe and Leguizamon are available. The Argies cut the Boks to shreds in Salta with Sanchez attacking the line, angle running and off loading.
Bakkies
Guest
Even though there is nothing said about position of the hands in the actual law.
Bakkies
Guest
Flip I sense cards
Jemainok
Guest
RT what I'm saying is they are better equipt than they have been in the past. But there are teams who's instinctive skill sets are more suited to the format.
Mullifer
Guest
Have to agree..Irelan'd weakness is not in playing away from home.. Our weakness, has been and will be for the foreseeable future in the front row, in particular at tight head..Since 200 we have basically had only two players that could play tight head at international level (John Hayes and now Mike Ross) and neither of them at an elite level...We seen against the England the shambles that the irish scrum became a few years ago when Ross had to go off injured.. .If mike Ross gets injured ireland are done for..We literally have nobody else right now who can hold his own at international level at tight head..In Cian healy and Rory Best we have two of the better front rowers in world rugby (especially in the loose) but at tight head we are severely deficient and it has cost us time and time again.. i think the backs and loose forwards are good enough to do damage against any team in the world but the trouble for ireland will be set piece play...It was the poorest aspect of our game this Autumn, but then again we were missing a number of forward through injury..Sean o'Brien and Cian healy especially who will add some much needed experience and power to the pack...But their intense physical playing style makes them prone to injuries so i just hope they can stay fit between now and the world cup..
Old Bugger
Guest
RT Cheers mate - exactly my thoughts on a previous post. My guess is if these ABs (apart from the obvious players destined to retire or move on) such as Owen F, Charlie, Colesy, Sam W, Brodie R, Cane, Luatua and Reid hang around until 2019, mmmm the ABs are going to have a very experienced forward pack headng into the RWC. Coming up is Haimes, Bird, Squires, Tuipolotu....I could suggest Christie but heck, another list that goes on and on. Then you slot in Aaza S, Cruds/BB, Feks, Crotty, Savea, Piutau and Dagg then you also see an experienced backline heading into the 2019 RWC. I could toss in either TJP, TKB, Pulu, McKenzie brothers, West, Hickey, Fonotia, Lowe, Halai.....the list goes on and on. The onus really is on the NZRU to pull a rabbit out of the hat and convince these guys to hang in there for 2019....perhaps, the B&I Lions tour in 2017 can start the ball rolling??
Old Bugger
Guest
Funny thing Harry - he also missed Messam's supposed infringment resulting in the final penalty of the match....
kiwi
Guest
:-D
Jerry
Guest
Sure, but I suspect that's true of most teams. I suspect it's something of a logical fallacy. Just cause the AB's are the best at scoring from turnovers & kicks, doesn't mean they're bad at scoring from other situations.
Normal and rational SA supporter
Guest
I agree Harry, Its not just targets to hit to secure ball but also 2m tall at 7 could steal plenty of the opposition ball like Read does for the All Blacks he could do some damage there . also Jacques Potgieter could be an option for a bruiser at 7 to cover 4 like Alberts as he seems more refined these days after the Waratahs skills training, but he still has the mongrel that Oupa doesn't have. Problem is he said publically that Cheika is the best coach he has ever played under so I cant see Heineken picking him. That's what got me onto PSDT as our next 7 as we have Flip vdM to cover at 4 and 5. Do you rate Potgieter or think we will be fine without him as cover for Willem/Schalk ?
Digby
Roar Guru
Yip, poor joke that one. Sigh, looks like I'm off to the florist again.... Coming dear!
That sounds bad!
Digby
Roar Guru
Nah, I'm safe. She thinks it's cricket season ..... ;)
Digby
Roar Guru
BB sells himself well short!! As do you RT, excellent well written posts along with OB. There is a balance to be found on the roar with genuinely passionate fans sharing about the game which is priceless.